Thursday, November 1, 2012

Examples Of Typical 2012 Presidential Polling Skews

This is a followup to my blog entitled "It's Over For Obama; Romney Will win"

Gallup Demographic Information For Recent Elections

As I indicated in the first blog, Gallup has found that this year, 49% of the electorate as Republican and 46% Democrat.  In 2008, the electorate was 54% Democratic vs. 42% Republican.   Republicans outnumber Democrats by 3 points this year which is 15 point swing from 2008!

Gallup indicates that voter split was 48% for Dem and 48% for Republican in 2004--or evenly split (no skew).   This year is 3 points more favorable for Republicans this year than 2004.

Refer to their table titled "Demographics of Likely Voters.." in the link above.  Their survey was based on a survey of 9,300 voters from all 50 States.

Now Compare Three Typical Polls From Yesterday

Politico has Obama up by 1% but they sampled 38% Democrat, 34% Republican and 23% Independent--skewed at least 4 points to Democrats or 8 points different than Gallup's information. They have Obama up by 1 point even with the 4 to 8 point skew.  But with their sampling, it really means Romney is likely up by 3 to 7 points.

IBD/TIPP has Obama up by 1.3 points also, but they sampled 38% Democrat, 31% Republican and 32% Independent for a 7 point skew to Democrat and fully 10 points of skew compared to Gallup.  Romney, then, is likely up by 6 to 9 points then.

CBS News Poll has Obama up by 1 point.  Their sample was 36% Democrat, 31% Republican and 33% Independent for 5 points of skew to Democrat and 8 points of skew compared to Gallup meaning Romney is likely ahead 4 to 7 points.

No comments: