This is a followup to my blog entitled "It's Over For Obama; Romney Will win"
Gallup Demographic Information For Recent ElectionsAs I indicated in the first blog, Gallup has found that this year, 49% of the electorate as Republican and 46% Democrat. In 2008, the electorate was 54% Democratic vs. 42% Republican. Republicans outnumber Democrats by 3 points this year which is 15 point swing from 2008!
Gallup indicates that voter split was 48% for Dem and 48% for Republican in 2004--or evenly split (no skew). This year is 3 points more favorable for Republicans this year than 2004.
Refer to their table titled "Demographics of Likely Voters.." in the link above. Their survey was based on a survey of 9,300 voters from all 50 States.
Now Compare Three Typical Polls From YesterdayPolitico has Obama up by 1% but they sampled 38% Democrat, 34% Republican and 23% Independent--skewed at least 4 points to Democrats or 8 points different than Gallup's information. They have Obama up by 1 point even with the 4 to 8 point skew. But with their sampling, it really means Romney is likely up by 3 to 7 points.
IBD/TIPP has Obama up by 1.3 points also, but they sampled 38% Democrat, 31% Republican and 32% Independent for a 7 point skew to Democrat and fully 10 points of skew compared to Gallup. Romney, then, is likely up by 6 to 9 points then.
CBS News Poll has Obama up by 1 point. Their sample was 36% Democrat, 31% Republican and 33% Independent for 5 points of skew to Democrat and 8 points of skew compared to Gallup meaning Romney is likely ahead 4 to 7 points.