Monday, June 15, 2020

A Very Long Way to Recovery

In my post How the World Got to the Edge of a Cliff, I said, "today, we are now in the 2nd Great Financial Crisis; the third bust in a series of bubbles and busts spawned by government and the central bank(s) since year 2000. The recovery after each bubble bust has become more and more anemic."

Notice the trajectory of the 2001 bubble recovery in dark red where employment recovered in about 4 years, then look at the 2007 bubble recovery where employment sort of recovered in 8 years.  A simple projection for our current bust would estimate employment recover to take 16 yearsI've said that we're in a depression and it's only going to get worse.

Here's graphical evidence of that concept. It also shows that the trajectory of our recovery will take years, maybe decades. And that assumes yet another crisis doesn't appear!  Heck, we're barely 8 months into the 2nd Great Financial Crisis which (Sept 2019 repo crisis was the start), if it's like the 2007/2008 crisis, will last about 1 1/2 years. So, we still have a year to go where one or more banks or institutions fail, the EU has a banking or financial crisis, stocks crash/recover/crash, etc.

My bet is that there will be no full recovery for a decade.
Notice the "Fabulous" May Job Report " V Recovery" where Employment was admittedly overstated by 3 million

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