Yesterday we commented here
that Germany will in fact be shutting down all the baseload power
sources, which ironically kept the country from blacking out in 2021
because wind and solar power failed to deliver as expected.
“Disaster playing out”…”pretty crazy”
Bardland writes:
In just over a month, Germany will close 3 of its newest and best
nuclear power plants and more than 4050 MW of electricity will disappear
from northern Europe’s power grid. 4050 MW is equivalent to the average
electricity consumption of all of Denmark.
It will put supply security further under pressure and them choosing to do so in the middle of winter is pretty crazy.
Not only will the 4050 MW of shut off nuclear power lead to more CO2
emissions, but it will cause much more pollution from the burning of
biomass and fossil fuels. Next winter, Germany will close the last 3
nuclear power plants, also 4000 MW.
Anyone who has followed the energy and climate political debate, even
superficially, over the last 10-20 years can see that Germany, Denmark
and other ‘green crazy countries’ are doing it vigorously AGAINST what
logic and science dictates.
We see a slow disaster playing out with The Greens in the lead role
as the crazy villain, hell-bent in their eagerness to wipe out life and
prosperity.
(PS. Buy warm clothes, food, water and candles, for the coming winter).”
On top of the baseload power shutdown madness, German Health Minister
Jens Spahn said he favored a one-year complete lockdown of unvaxxed
Germans. There’s definitely something in someone’s water.
[Doug
here: The sad thing is that, once a nuclear plant is built and in
operation, it's power is almost free and it"s extremely reliable. To
shut down a nuclear plant now means an extremely costly decommissioning
that is a premature and unnecessary cost.
Every energy grid needs a very large and reliable baseload, ESPECIALLY GERMANY! Solar
and wind is intermittent and extremely low quality in Germany at 50
degrees north latitude in winter. Their highest electrical demand/loads are in
their winter. But, in winter, there are 4 months without ANY solar panel
output due to clouds and the low angle of the sun.
Worse,
due to climate change insanity and extreme ignorance of their energy
reality, they are hellbent on MAKING ALL OF THEIR AUTOS ELECTRIC WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME REDUCING POWER GENERATION!!! Pure insanity.
Add
even more to this insanity is the inability of the Germans to approve the NordStream
2 gas pipeline that is ready to provide cheap and abundant natural gas
supplies from Russia while natural gas inventories in Germany and
the EU are already too low for this time of the year. I guess the lesson is:
don't underestimate the power of elected officials to screw-up
everything. People are going to die this winter due to crazed politicians.
From Tom Luongo in describing the latest Covid "scare."
Remember these are the same people who said the "Vaxx" would cure Covid,
who ignore the outrageous "Vaxx" side-effects, who want to inject your
kids for no good reason, predicted armageddon for Britain if they
choose Brexit, who tell you ad nauseum that the state of the climate is a
CRISIS!! and the government is here to help you (Run for the hills!)
Epstein killed himself. Biden is competent. Biden won Super Tuesday
primary election fair and square (after badly losing in Iowa and NH).
Alzheimer patient Biden won the 2020 election. Diversity is our
strength. The summer 2020 protests were mostly peaceful. All Whites are
systemically racist including grade school kids. The US was never great.
Hunter Biden did nothing wrong. Biden is definitely not compromised by
Chinese money. Seventeen US Intelligence agencies said there were WMD in
Iraq and also 'verified' that Trump colluded with Russia. YouTube and
Twitter are not censoring conservatives. PTA moms are now domestic
terrorists. Obama was competent. There is nothing about which these people won't lie. Never forget what I wrote in my post "A Nation Drowning in Lies and Fraud."
Interestingly, in my post with David Hunter from yesterday, he talks about seeing a bubble peak in the US stock markets in Q1 (2022) prior to, a global financial/economic crisis to begin in Q2 (2022). He's expecting the worse financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. There have been many, many warning signs for a long time.
This morning, Doug Nolan, at Credit Bubble Bulletin, documented renewed financial distress and contagion in peripheral (emerging market) countries. The concern is that this distress is working into the core developed country markets and economies. The Nu Covid scare is just another accelerant.
We've seen "false starts" before. Everyone has been unable to correctly call the timing of the next crisis. I'll paste his latest post below, but here are some of my comments:
I've long wondered where the critical "leg" of the next worldwide financial crisis begins. For me, it's long been the EU or China. I think I know the answer now: China. The extraordinarily leveraged bubble in it's property sector is bursting. And it's in a country/region where the majority of the population (62% in China) stores ALL their wealth, ie., in property. They pay 10 to 20% down (with borrowed money?), and finance the remainder betting the farm (literally) on ever rising prices. Now China has 90 million empty and unfinished apartment "shells" where 100s of million of people have stored their wealth and taken on huge amounts of debt and paid VERY HIGH prices. This bubble has popped and it's (probably) just a matter of time before 100s of millions of investors speculators see their money melt away as property prices drop. The Chinese will try to stop the inevitable with yet more deficit spending.
Predicting crises and collapse are so difficult because these things take a very long time, ie., years and even decades, to play out. And yes, if you get the timing wrong even though you successfully describe what's coming, you're still wrong.
It takes decades for goverments to destroy everything. For instance, Nixon abandoned Bretton Woods gold standard for the USD in 1971. This led to a collapsing dollar, unending budget and trade deficits, an OPEC oil embargo, oil price rises and extremely high inflation until about 1982. There was a repreive in the 1980s with the Reagan tax cuts but still huge govt budget deficits. Then the elimination of Glass Steagal in 1991 was pivotal in allowing 'banksters' unlimited leverage of depositor and Fed money. The rise of the Euro-Dollar liquidity in Europe, done in a clever way "off the books" was completely missed by bank regulators. This lugubrious Eurodollar funding allowed the rise of China and permitted "globalization" until the financial accident and near-death experience in 2008/09. At that point, China embarked on the biggest debt-funded investment program the world has ever seen and saved the world from financial, then economic, death. This lasted until 2014/2015 or so. The Euro-dollar funding mechanism was also back with a vengeance by then to aid and abet China and the emerging markets.
China has finally "hit the wall" this year in my opinion. They installed Chairman Xi, now emperor-for-life who rules with an Mao-like iron fist, to now tackle their massive misallocations of capital and it's massive bubbles. They have been "hunkering down" for several years now. The Party has warned the people of hardship that is coming.
I started warning that China had reached debt levels that are assciated with financial crises in 2015 and here it is almost 2022. So, I was wrong with timing. Hell, I wrote a post Euro Bank Leverage STILL a Systemic Risk in 2013! That post is still accurate, but it's amazing how long governments can "kick the can" down the road with easy (unsound) money.
Obama and the Left have started a class war, a war on business, a war on
police and a race war. They want to promote dissent & conflict to
justify "emergency" measures then "emergency powers." We're already very
close to financial and social collapse. Sounds like Chavez and Maduro
to me. You watch.
Crisis is coming to our country and world and it's being brought to you
by failed politicians and horrible central bankers. It's "baked-in."
Crises have already enveloped many countries in Latin America, Africa,
and the Middle East. Crisis always starts at the periphery and works
toward the core. Next will be Europe and Russia. The Brexit vote is
signaling EU political and financial collapse there in the months ahead.
China is drowning in bad debts--- debts taken out to literally "save
the world" in 2009 until 2014. Massive devaluations in China will
reverberate around the world. Banking crises in Europe and China will bring back
financial crisis conditions soon to the entire world. I don't see a way
out as everything is so broken.
Again, I consider myself wrong because I got the timing wrong. Mea Culpa.
[Speaking about the new Covid virus strain and market turbulence on Friday:] Once again, the wily Covid virus boasts ghostly timing. Omicron barges
in with de-risking/deleveraging and global Crisis Dynamics attaining
pivotal momentum. And with contagion rapidly enveloping the emerging
markets (EM), disaster strikes for the vulnerable South African domino
already in line for trouble.
The South African rand this week
sank 3.4%, increasing 2021 losses to 9.8%. South African 10-year yields
jumped 19 bps Friday (high since April 2020), boosting the week’s yield
spike to 43 bps. South African CDS Friday surged 25 (43 for the week)
to 252 bps – the high since March.
An index of EM CDS surged 19
Friday - the largest one-day rise since September 2020 - to 221 bps,
the high back to October 2020. EM CDS surged 34 for the week, the
biggest weekly gain since September 2020. Friday saw sovereign CDS surge
17.5 in Brazil to 268 bps (high since June 2020), 17.5 in Colombia to
218 bps (May 2020), and nine in Chile to 99 bps (May 2020). For the
week, CDS jumped 26 bps in Brazil, 32 bps in Colombia, 27 bps in Mexico,
and 11 bps in Indonesia.
he last thing Turkey needed was a stiff forearm shove toward a
full-fledged financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira sank
another 2.8% Friday, pushing losses for the week to 8.9% - for the month
to 22.1% and for 2021 to about 40%. Turkey’s 10-year (lira) yields
spiked 80 bps this week, trading above 20% for the first time since May
2019. Turkey CDS surged 28 Friday (58 for the week) to a one-year high
504 bps. For a country with a population of 84 million – that saw
living standards and expectations inflate right along with its Credit
Bubble – the collapse is turning increasingly desperate.
Mexico is another key EM domino – with self-inflicted wounds placing it directly in the line of fire.
The Mexican peso sank 5.0% this week, boosting y-t-d losses to 9.2%.
Mexico’s local currency yields jumped 21 bps to 7.68%, the high since
the March 2020 market crisis. Mexico’s dollar bond yields rose 16 bps
to 3.16% (high since March). Mexico CDS jumped 14 Friday to 125 bps
(October 2020), with the week’s 27 bps jump the largest gain since June
2020. Mexican stocks dropped 2.6% this week.
Fragile Brazil’s
dollar bond yields surged another 34 bps this week to 4.99%, the high
since June 2020. Brazil’s mid-November annual inflation jumped to
10.73%. From Goldman Sachs chief Latin America economist Alberto Ramos
(from Bloomberg): “Overall, inflation is now very generalized with
overwhelming evidence of significant second-round effects.”
So-called
“strongmen” leaders from Ankara to Mexico City and beyond have not
taken inflationary surges seriously. They act as if the world hasn’t
changed from earlier halcyon days of seemingly endless global liquidity
and yield-chasing EM “hot money” inflows. Especially these days, there
is no overstating the critical role played by disciplined, principled,
and independent central banking. Enormous speculative leverage
throughout the emerging markets left no room for error. Tons of
erroneous policies and market misperceptions created currency and bond
market fragilities, with Crisis Dynamics having now been unleashed.
Bubbles
at their core are pernicious mechanisms for wealth redistribution and
destruction. Geopolitical risk is a key Bubble manifestation, with the
current most protracted global Bubble unmatched in this regard.
Competing head-to-head with Covid in terms of stubborn persistency,
there was similarly no relief this week from mounting geopolitical
risks.
With Crisis Dynamics now in full swing within the global “Periphery,”
the “Core” is in heightened jeopardy. European stocks were hammered
this week. France’s CAC40 sank 4.8% in Friday trading (down 5.2% for
the week), with major indices falling 4.2% in Germany (down 5.6%), 5.0%
in Spain (down 4.0%), 4.6% in Italy (down 5.4%), and 3.6% in the U.K.
(down 2.5%). Ominously, Italian bank stocks were slammed 7.8%, with
European banks sinking 5.9%. An index of bank (subordinate) debt CDS
surged 19 this week to 131 bps, the largest increase in over a year. ....
It is a fundamental tenet that contemporary finance works
wonderfully, so long as leverage and speculation are expanding. It does
not function well in reverse. Global “risk off”
de-risking/deleveraging took a meaningful leap forward this week.
China’s historic Bubble continues to deflate, while virulent contagion
ruthlessly targets the weak and vulnerable throughout the emerging
markets. And, importantly, a bout of risk aversion Friday slammed the
“Core.” At this point, a lot has to go right to restrain energized
Crisis Dynamics hellbent on engulfing an unprepared world.
What are we seeing now? There is massive
inflation, huge defaults of debt in China, a badly broken supply chain
and a hostile government against “We the People” here in America.
It sure looks like the end of this system is near.
Armstrong contends it is not an accident that all this is happening now to the United States because Marxist globalists want to overthrow our Constitutional form of government. Armstrong explains,
“This is getting to be really absurd.
Biden is the perfect President. I warned that this election had
nothing to do with Trump versus Biden. It was Trump versus a foreign
entity that was trying to take over the United States. Biden is
absolutely the perfect President. They got their wish. They got somebody in there that really would not be able to figure out left from right.
I am not making derogatory statements against him.
This isn’t even Biden’s agenda. You are lucky if he even understands what’s going on. It’s the people behind him.
It you look at his polls, they are down to 33%. A politician would
normally care about that. You don’t see any change because he’s not the
one doing this. They know he’s just a place holder. , , , They are
just moving their agenda through—period. The United States is being
orchestrated from Geneva.
All this ‘Build Back Better’ stuff was a slogan created at Davos. . . .The United States is under attack from a foreign entity.”
Armstrong says his predictive Socrates computer program does not see the Marxist globalists succeeding. Armstrong says,
“They think they can take over the world and create this fictional wonderland of Marxism. It’s not going to work.
Our computer is showing that they have failed. In 2022, this whole
thing is going to start blowing up. Bill Gates . . . actually said that
the vaccines don’t work. He said we are going to have to create a new
sort of R&D. There is too much evidence now that the vaccines do
not prevent you from getting Covid or spreading it. Data coming out of
Israel shows the majority of people vaccinated are the majority of the
people that are dying. Gates is being confronted with this behind the
curtain.”
Armstrong says the Marxist globalists are trying to create a Great Depression. Why? Armstrong says, “The reason why they are trying to create a Great Depression is they are now desperate..."
...They
created, in my opinion, this virus that numerous people I know behind
the curtain were told a virus was coming. I think it was planted. I
think it was created by a lab in China. This is all total B.S. It’s
being used mainly to prevent people from traveling.”
Armstrong also says the Marxist globalists have a plan to default on all debt. Listen to how they are going to sell this to the public. Armstrong says,
“They pretend they care about you. You won’t own anything. We are going to eliminate all mortgages, all credit card debt and you are going to be happy.
Why?
Because that’s the cover for them to default. They can’t default without wiping out everybody’s pension fund.”
Armstrong
says rich people are buying tangible assets to get their money off the
grid, and the little guy should be doing the same thing. This
is why Armstrong says things such as art, collectibles, Bitcoin and gold
are going up and will continue to do so. Armstrong says be careful
with crypto currencies because, eventually, governments will have their
own crypto currencies and will not allow competition.
Rough Transcript of Conversation (editing in general and deleting out some of the moderator):
David: I have been probably the biggest bull on wall street over
the past 18 months. Back in the march 2020 lows i started talking about a melt
up as where we were headed and i've stuck with that call all the way through
this last 18 months. My view is that we're going to see a final parabolic move
up as a final leg to this bull market. I call this the secular bull market that started back in August
of 1982 so we’ve been in a 39-year bull market, a secular bull market and i
think it will end in a parabolic melt up.
So i think we're in that last leg. I still think we probably could see a
pullback one more time before wereally
get going into that last move. But my final target right now is 5,300 on the S&P,
42,000 on the dow and i've got an 18,000 target on the nasdaq but i'll probably
raise that.
You should you know that my expected melt up or blow off move, that once it goes vertical, really it could cover an amazing amount of ground in a short time so i think that's what's ahead in the next few months.
I don't think we'll get there by the end of the year but i think certainly first quarter we could get to the top and then what follows uh in my opinion is a bear market bigger than any we've had in the post-World War II era so bigger than anything since 1929. Essentially I'm calling for a 70 to 80% bear market dropum that will begin you know following the the blow off top um and it'll be precipitated by a global bust --- a global economic bust in the world economy.
You know, the term "bust" gets thrown around a lot and people use it with respect to the stock market and things when i say bust i'm referring to the economy and i define a bust as something bigger than a recession perhaps as bad as a depression in lots of ways but more the speed of recession so most of the damages is pretty much contained within you know 12 to 15 month time horizon.
And that's what i think we're going to see probably beginning mid-year next year for the bust itself. Then because the stock market will lead that so you'll make a top in the stock market [before the bad economic/financial news] and then followed by a few months to several months by something pretty awful in the economy.
It'll be global so it's not just the US, it's you know Europe's
going to be in big trouble. Certainly China has a lot to worry about in terms of their their situation and the reason why i think it's going to be bigger than even 2008/09 is because we've ramped up leverage -- it was big leverage going into 2008.
It's far bigger leverage today. We've got you know close to 300 trillion in global debt around you know around the globe and we've got um notional value of derivatives in in the quadrillions so those two aspects you know everybody knows about debt but i don't think they considered derivatives when they speak of leverage but that's truly leverage on the system and once that starts unwinding it can unwind pretty dramatically and fast so the central bank's going to have a lot on their hands in terms of trying to prevent a total uh collapse and
As a result what you will see is massive monetary and fiscal expansion --- the monetary being the fast you know the faster way they'll get to respond to this. Fiscal will take sometimes weeks or months to deliberate, you know, get parties to agree on things. Whereas the fed and other central banks can be pumping money almost immediately so so you will see an awful lot of money created you know we've we've just gone from 3.7 trillion to eight and a half trillion during this pandemic
I think you'll see the fed's balance sheet grow to over 20 trillion in response to the bust --could even be 30 trillion, so i'm talking big numbers and that will, with a lag and it's you know going to be uh probably a six to nine month flag, but with a lag uh that will jumpstart a new recovery cycle.
That new recovery cycle though will come not not immediately but you know within a couple of years will come with hyperinflation and i think by the end of the decade,I expect that we will have retraced all of the interest rate decline from 1981, all of the inflation decline from 1982, We were at 15 percent long bond, 15% 10 year rates back in 1981 and inflation was up in the 20% range we will be back at those levels again and maybe higher by the end of this decade.
So that's not a very pretty picture and it means um the next cycle is going to look very different than what we've had in the last 40 years.
The easiest part of my forecast is how the Federal Reserve will respon, not just the fed but every central bankin the world will be printing money at a rate we have never seen before you know they will be putting more money into the system than we saw in 2008/ 2009, more than we've seen in the last 18 months and multiples of those numbers because they're going to be dealing with a system that's free-falling a financial system that's really unwinding so no doubt they're going to respond.
What i think often times investors don't recognize is that they it's not it's not so easy as to say "push a button" and here's the amount of money we need. They're going to be putting in more money than they've ever put in and then they're going to wonder is that enough or not.
There's a lag to when money actually stabilizes the system so it's during that time where the Central Banks are in this uncertain, unknown period ----where they have to just keep putting money in because nothing's turned around yet. So they'll put a couple a couple trillion in (and i'm just speaking of the fed right now) but they'll put a couple trillion in and thing's will still be free falling so they'll put a couple trillion more in and it'll still be free falling. So it's just going to take time and it doesn't mean it's a straight line either. You could have bounces in the markets and periods of respite where it looks like they've done enough and then a month later they find they haven't done enough so i think
I think in in our world of communication where everybody's a trader, they think all it's as simple as all they have to do is desire to do something and it's done. It's much more complex than that when you're sitting in in Jay Powell's seat or, you know Christine Legard's seat, and you're trying to figure out what do--- how much money do i need to put in. And of course there's offsets.
What's going to be hard for them is we're going into this turmoil with inflation heating up. They're gonna be tightening that's what's gonna i think precipitate the bust. and and you can't just switch turn on a switch or turn on a dime and say okay now it's time to print money. The inflation's still gonna be lingering for the first part of the bust so they're going to be caught between a rock and a hard place in terms of what do we do now, They'll say, "Have we done too much?" or "do we need to do more?" It's just not a simple equation where you say okay we desire to stop this and we're going to print money. It sounds easy it's not easy when you're in that seat.
you know i one of the things that allows me to say things with conviction is i was investing as a pension fund manager back in the 70s and 80s so i was there to watch what happened when interest rates all of a sudden went from 7% or 8% to 15% because Paul Volcker said we're going to control money supply now because inflation is out of control. I saw how long it took to crank that down.
I think today's investors or today's pundits have never lived through that inflationary time. We've been in disinflation for about 40 years, so even the Fed is looking at the playbook from back then and trying to understand it. But they weren't there then. So you know there's just a few of us dinosaurs still around that saw that but you know it's uh, it's a different world.
Moderator: So what do you what do you think is the safest asset to be in then like because this bust is going to affect the globe. Where do you put most of your portfolio in?
David: I can't provide advice but what i can say is that what i believe we'll see in terms of asset categories obviously equities will be hit har. Corporate bonds will be hit hard; particularly lower quality bonds you know junk bonds, etc. Lower investment grade bonds will be hit hard because as the economy deteriorates so do their balance sheets and so you know they'll be default risk etc
The things that will hold up in in the bust, in the bear market, are going to be government guaranteed returns such as treasury bonds. I don't think we have sovereign risk this time around---I think we will have that after the next cycle but this time around the the central banks will have enough money. I mean because inflation will be turning into deflation they will have almost limitless ability to print money so as long as the printing press is there, they can fund the FDIC, they can fund the government.
So there won't be, at least in the US, any sovereign default risk. So treasuries will be one of the few places that i think will actually see increased value during the bust you know so if the stock market is dropping 80% and treasuries are actually positive returns that's a huge spread.
I think the us dollar will have a flight-to-safety trade i'm actually embarrassed on the dollar now i think the dollar is going down before it goes up but but when the bust hits and again it's still many months away but when the bust hitsi do think we'll see as we have in past cycles and in spite of people's skepticism about the long-term nature of the long-term prospects for the dollar i think we will see investors around the globe flee to the dollar because they still view the us as the most secure financial system. So you'll see a appreciation in the dollar during the bust. So the treasuries and the dollar are really the two things that i think buck the trend and then and then obviously the FDIC-insured bank assets like savings accounts can can be trusted to hold up as long as as long as you stay within the insurance thresholds.
As i said the FDIC will be funded to whatever is necessary if if we have bank failures etc. I think we will have bank failures probably more this time around last time is very focused on the US this time around. I think the bigger pain in the financial system is probably going to be elsewhere because we had our banks got hit so hard in 2008/09 that their balance sheets are in better shape than a lot of banks around the world. So i'd be more worried about the European banks, the Asian banks--Australian banks, Canadian banks because the leverage in the system in those places.
So it doesn't mean we won't have problems in the US banking wise but i think it'll be less so than last time.
Moderator: How about precious metals?
Right now, i'm bullish on the metals right now. I actually have a one of the more bullish calls on the street i'm looking for gold to go to $2500 probably in the next six months, that is ---before the bust. I'm looking for silver to go to $50 pre-bust. So those are pre-bust peaks that i think we'll see and then in the bust they'll pull back.
I don't think they'll get hit nearly as hard as the stock market um they might come back to these or current levels so if if gold goes to $2500 it might, come back to you know $1800 type of thing.
If silver goes to $50 and it might even go higher than $50, but if it goes to $50 I might fall back to $25 or $30. it'll be you know less of a pullback compared to the drawdown in the equity indexes.
And then in the next cycle because inflation resurgence being ominant a theme, that is with inflation going from deflation or near deflation dudring the bust, I think we'll have a fast very swift decline in prices during the bust, from from negative inflation, say in 2023, I think you can get to 20%, 20% plus inflation in, you know, seven years (say by 2030) so that will drive precious metals much higher. I'm i'm expecting gold to be who knows $10 000 maybe $20 000 i'm expecting silver to go to $400 maybe higher.
I'm expecting a lot of other commodities and this is after the bust (and the printing), ie., this is next cycle, you could see oil at $400 a barrel. You could see copper you know which is currently you know in the $4 range, could be $20 plus, so so a lot of big run-ups in commodities next cycle. So commodities and precious metals will be the leaders of the next cycle like the like the social media stocks and technology were the leaders of this cycle.
Healthcare was a leader in this cycle. They won't do so well in inflation they do much better when interest rates are low and inflation is relatively low so.
What we see, and i've done this for almost five decades. I've seen many cycles. What you see is every cycle has new leadership. So leadership of this cycle will be laggards next cycle and you'll have new leadership so the leadership next cycle i expect to be you know commodities, precious metals and industrial stocks industrial stocks,
Moderator: Ok, uh how about real estate how will real estate fare during the bust and the hyper inflation?
David: Yeah i think we're in the last stages of a run-up in real estate you can get you know it could probably be a little stronger here for a little bit longer maybe into the spring but following that i think it'll get beat up in the bust.
I don't know how badly it's going to be, but probably not as bad in the US as it was in 2008/2009 but you know you can come down because, you know, we've had pretty healthy run-ups in housing prices. So I expected housing to get hit pretty hard in the bust.
Then but you know and then the recovery after the bust um for a year or two you could see a bounce but ultimately you can have a very stiff headwind if interest rates go up. I actually think the 10-year Treasury bond can get down to zero percent in the bust from as high as 2 1/2% pre-bust.
I'm calling for tightening here that will drive the 10 year Treasury up to 2 1/2% in the next few months, In the next three to six months from there i think it can go down to zero so you'll start from a zero base on Fed funds. Mortgage rates probably be down at two percent or lower.
But you'll start there in say, late 2023--- but you'll see rates move towards double digits and i think by 2026 to 2027 they could be at double digits and by 2029 you know you could be looking at 15% mortgage rates so that's going to be a very stiff headwind for real estate.
So everybody thinks real estate is an inflation hedge. Certain real estate will be i think farmland might might do well because i expect ag commodities to do well next cycle.
But for housing, if you've got mortgage rates going from you know two or three percent up to 15%, you know what that does to people that are buying houses on a monthly payment basis, and that's gonna you know drive the monthly payment up through the roof so something has to give and i think it's going to be housing prices.
Moderator: what what do you think uh will cause the big run up um and i guess what's the trigger uh for and also what's the trigger for the bust you know because i think for such a big bust there needs to be a trigger, right?
David: I think the trigger could come from overseas but i think more likely the trigger will be fed tightening. And as i said before it's not so easy to say "we have to tighten" and then we'll do a little bit of tightening but hope we won't break the system.
The problem is inflation doesn't come down easily so they're going to tighten but there's monetary leads/lags to that, so that tightening may go on longer than they would like or what the economy can stand. Because we have so much fragility in the system due to the pandemic (and leverage), I don't think it's going to take much to tip things over so I think it's basically the trigger is likely to be fed tightening.
meaning not just raising interest rates but pulling a good amount of money out of the system and I just think that we've seen it every cycle that i've been doing this is that's usually what tips the economy the the fed overly tightens because the response comes many months later and they always tend to overdo it. They tend to overdo it because they think they haven't done enough yet. so as as careful as they are as much as people want to believe in yield curve control and mmt , i think they're going to find out that once inflation kind of gets out of the bag it's it's hard to put it back in you know so, I think the Fed's going to have their hands full and I would say probably second quarter of next year is probably the the time when you're going to see some of the you know the issues really crop up.
Moderator: do you see hyper inflation um the next few months?
David: i see inflation accelerating you know I don't call this hyperinflation because i lived through the hyperinflation of the early 80s hyperinflation will be what we see second half of this decade. but yeah I think we are going to see inflation accelerate from here.
I look at commodity prices for one thing and you know my read is that copper right now is about $4.20. I expect copper to go up to $6 dollars in the next six months. I think lumber's probably heading back to a $1000 dollars. You know it came came off a peak of $1700 last year and then it fell to you know below $500. I think it's starting to turn up again. I wouldn't be surprised to see lumber above a thousand dollars in the next six months so.
Those are just two indicators that I look at. There's lots of other commodities and you look at the charts, it tends to project for higher prices, so I think we are going to see higher inflation. I don't know what that will translate into in terms of PPI or CPI, but i think it's certainly going to be up a percent or more from here.
Moderator: you mentioned on twitter something in regards to China, that China is gonna be a trigger that'll affect other countries. Do you mind explaining more about that way more into detail?
David: Sure the big the big reason why I think we're gonna have this bust, which again it'll be the worst downturn in the post-World War II era, that is, worst downturn since the great depression.
The reason for my forecast is the leverage in the system we are we're in uncharted territory in terms of how much leverage is in the system. You know I quoted the numbers before: $300 trillions of debt and and quadrillions and notional value derivatives. The most leveraged economy in the world is China, You know they went crazy this last cycle from from the bottom in 2008 to where we are now. They just leveraged everybody leveraged on steroids. You're starting to see the unwind now with Evergreen. Simply put, their property market is up on stilts and very leveraged.
Their whole economy is very leveraged. their whole financial system is leveragedso even though they're a more closed economy than than we are here in the states, they're going to find at some point that you know they can't control it all ---that it's not that easy. So I think the odds are that they are going to play a big role in the bust. I you know the conversation you're alluding to was somebody that was getting into an argument with me because I said they probably won't be the trigger but they will certainly play a big role. They may not trigger the bust, but once the bust gets started their leverage is going to play a big role as is the leverage everywhere in the world. So with China just being the most leveraged, it's likely to be a significant part of the bust.
You'll see it in real estate. you probably see it with their consumers. I would think you'll see it in their financial system.
Moderator: do you do you see a china economy going down here from here on or or um you know they will be the next superpower?
David: yeah that's a good question. I have drawn the analogy it's a hard question to answer because a lot depends on how badly the bust and deleveraging hurts them.
I think we are where Japan was in the late 80s coming out of the 1987 crash they went up to even higher highs in their market and they peaked in 1989 and their stock market's far below that peak today----you know even 30 years later.
And so we are Japan and i think China is is where the US was in 1989 which or the late 80s which means we went obviously our markets went way beyond those highs then. The us has been a very strong leader in the last 30 years.
Like Japan in 1989, I'm making the call that the secular peak of our Stock Markets, saying within a few months of now, that secular peak highs will probably not be seen for decades again and and maybe not even close so. Let's say I have to further raise targets again and we get to you know 5,500 or 6,000 on the S&P.
So, then let's say we drop 80 percent you can climb all the way out of that drop and go from you know 80 percent of let's say 6,000 um is you know 4,800 points so you could go all the way down to 1200 on the S&P.
Even in a bear market, you could then you could quadruple that 1200 and it would take you back to 4,800 or nowhere near the 6 000 top. So you can have a big cyclical bull market (within a secular bear mkt) next cycle after the bust and still be far below the old highs and then work your way lower from there. So I think there's a good chance that the US is going to be kind of in there twilight for a while (like Japan).
the fed is kind of the monetary leader but believe me every central bank is going to be printing at the same rate as the Fed
I'm predicting but i'm not endorsing this. I'm only saying this is pretty much predictable that the only response that they can pursue that's quick and that will meet the monetary need. The huge monetary response will be needed because of the leverage unwind is so huge so the response has to be huge.
Moderator: Do you foresee maybe a reset or of some kind currency reset?
David: I think basically the dollar will remain the reserve currency for at least the next five years. That doesn't mean you're not going to see digital currencies out there you are. It doesn't mean that central banks won't adopt some sort of digital currencies of course, but i think the dollar will remain reserve currency for the next five years beyond that my you know my ability to to see gets really pretty cloudy
[Doug here: Note, that I have not yet edited the remaining transcript....You can still read it, but it's less clear]
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has said that Russia’s cutting-edge future weapon system being tested has hit its target with great precision.
"It is true that we have successfully tested a cutting-edge system of the future. It hit an old satellite with precision worthy of a goldsmith. The remaining debris pose no threats to space activity," Shoigu told the media during a working tour of military units in the Western Military Region near Voronezh.
The U.S., China and India have previously made similar tests of
kinetic weapons designed to kill satellites. Such tests are problematic
because they create debris fields which will endanger other objects in the earth's orbit:
Seven astronauts on the International Space Station were forced to take shelter in their transport spacecraft early Monday (Nov. 15) when the station passed uncomfortably closed to orbital debris, according to reports.
The space junk passes began in the pre-dawn hours of Monday and the International Space Station has continued to make close passes to the debris every 90 minutes or so, according to experts monitoring the situation. Russia's space agency Roscosmos confirmed the space junk encounter with Space.com, though NASA has not yet commented on the situation either publicly or to Space.com.
Anti-satellite missiles can be used against more than satellites. An
intercontinental missile will deliver its warhead on an out-in-space
trajectory. An anti-satellite missile could destroy it before it
reenters the atmosphere.
Why would Russia want to kill satellites one might ask. U.S. weapon producer Northrop Grumman recently gave an idea:
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) recently completed
the critical design review of the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking
Space Sensor (HBTSS) prototype for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency
(MDA). The review establishes the company’s technical approach for
precise, timely sensor coverage to defeat ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
HBTSS satellites will provide continuous tracking and handoff to
enable targeting of enemy missiles launched from land, sea or air. They
are a critical part of the Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR)
multi-layered constellation of satellites, which can sense heat
signatures to detect and track missiles from their earliest stages of
launch through interception.
Tracking and targeting Russian hypersonic missiles? Looks like Russia seeks ways to prevent that.
Since the Financial Times reported China conducted two
hypersonic tests over the summer, US officials have expressed concern
about technological advances because no nation (except China) can propel
a hypersonic weapon into space that can fly over the South Pole,
rendering US missile defense systems useless. In other words: a possible
checkmate.
In a new report via FT,
People familiar with details of the July 27 test said China launched an
“orbital bombardment system” rocket over the South China Sea while
moving at five times the speed of sound. Pentagon experts are unsure how
China managed to fire a hypersonic glide vehicle from the system while
traveling at such speeds in space. It appears China has mastered a
technology that Russia and the US have yet to acquire fully.
The orbital bombardment system could be a checkmate to the US because
it flies over the South Pole, putting US missile defense shields out of
reach. There’s also the issue of the hypersonic glide vehicle that is
highly maneuverable and is hard to shoot down, which suggests the US is
prone to a hypersonic missile attack from China.
FT reported last month that China conducted two hypersonic weapons tests,
one on July 27 and another on Aug. 13. Both tests come as Beijing
increases its nuclear capability and posture in the South China Sea,
Taiwan Strait, and Pacific.
China’s Foreign Ministry denied reports that the country had tested a hypersonic weapon in space, saying “it was not a missile, it was a space vehicle.”
The Chinese embassy said it had no idea of a missile test.
“We are not at all interested in having an arms race
with other countries,” said Liu Pengyu, the embassy spokesperson. “The
US has in recent years been fabricating excuses like ‘the China threat’
to justify its arms expansion and development of hypersonic weapons.”
Meanwhile, US Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General John Hyten told CBS News’ David Martin last week that China’s recent hypersonic missile test that went around the world “is a very significant capability that has the potential to change a lot of things.”
China’s hypersonic weapons tests suggest President Xi Jinping has or
is on the brink of checkmate with the US when deploying advanced
weapons. Orbital strikes from China on the US mainland via hypersonic
glide vehicles could be a severe threat because US defense shields may
not stop the weapons.
Blacks are our version of the Palestinians--many nice ones but many criminals with multi-generational hatred that has no solution, especially when victimhood literally pays.
Here's prime suspect, Darrell Edward Brooks Jr., who mowed-down 40 people in Kenosha WI admitting that he is a total scumbag --having sex with an underage girl:
Late Bonus: Darrell Brooks ran over an ex-girlfriend several weeks ago. Check out the story here. Also, take a look at this Twitter thread of Darryl's twitter account.
LET'S BE CLEAR HERE, DARRELL IS TYPICAL URBAN BLACK 'DEMON.' YOU WILL FIND OUT THAT HE HAS A CRIMINAL RECORD A MILE LONG and a supporter of BLM (of course).
HE REPRESENTS THE TOTAL CULTURAL COLLAPSE OF BLACK AMERICA, THE RESULT OF GENETICS, THE BIPARTISAN DEINDUSTRIALIZATION OF AMERICA AND "THE WAR ON POVERTY."
JUST THIS WEEKEND, 80+ NIGGAS WERE SEEN FLASH-ROBBING THE NORDSTROM STORE IN CALIFORNIA. AND ANOTHER FLASH-ROB HIT THE LOUIS VUITTON STORE --ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY LOOTED "EASY-TO-RESELL" HANDBAGS. SO CHECK EBAY IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR CHEAP LV BAGS.
THE MAJORITY OF THESE PEOPLE HAVE LONG CRIMINAL HISTORIES, JUST LIKE THOSE IN THE CRIMINAL BLM ORGANIZATION.
BLM, ITSELF BASED ON PURE LIES, IS A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION AND BLM SYMPATHIZERS AND SUPPORTERS ARE FOUND IN EVERY BLACK GHETTO, LARGE NUMBERS OF IGNORANT WHITES, THE WHITE HOUSE, MOST OF THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA AND CORPORATE BOARD ROOMS.
BLM IS/WAS LAVISHLY FUNDED BY COUNTLESS "WOKE (STUPID)" FOOLS AT MAJOR CORPORATIONS AND BY PEOPLE LIKE GEORGE SOROS.
It's time that our country's pathetic Palestinians be caged into a region of the country and surrounded by walls, just like in the West Bank.
In September President Joe Biden nominated Saule Omarova to become
comptroller of the currency at the Department of Treasury. If confirmed,
Omarova would be in charge of overseeing banking in the United States. [Oh great, a communist in charge of the heart of Capitalism?]
Omarova believes private bank accounts should be taken over and controlled by the Federal Reserve.
"Imagine
what it would be like instead of just a public option for deposit
banking, this would be actually the full transition. In other words,
there would be no more private bank deposit accounts and all of the
deposit accounts will be held directly at the fed," Omarova said during
recent remarks. "How is it politically feasible for the central bank to
take money away from people's accounts."
Omarova has also stated that in order for the country and the world to
tackle climate change, governments must bankrupt the oil industry
through regulation.
All Communists are basically thieves. From Fox News,
"Omarova, who was 28 years old at the time, was arrested in 1995 for
"retail theft" from a T.J. Maxx store in Madison, Wisconsin. The police
report, filed by a T.J. Maxx security agent, says she stole $214 worth
of merchandise before being caught."
Omarova is a communist who grew up in the USSR. While in college at
Moscow State University on a Lenin academic excellence scholarship, she
titled her thesis, "Karl Marx’s Economic Analysis and the Theory of
Revolution in The Capital."
Biden nominee Saule Omarova saying the quiet part out loud. On the oil, coal and gas industries:
If confirmed, Omarova would be in charge of the Office of the
Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC "charters, regulates, and
supervises all national banks, federal savings associations, and federal
branches and agencies of foreign banks."
ATLANTA, GA—With Rittenhouse found "not guilty", media outlets across
the country are preparing for costly defamation lawsuits after a year
of calling him a white supremacist. [Paging Lin Wood!]
With CNN already half-owned
by Nick Sandmann, the famous fake news organization will soon be giving
the other half of its ownership over to Kyle Rittenhouse. The two have
agreed to share joint custody.
"We would like to announce that
our clients have come to an agreement to share custody of CNN," said
Sandman and Rittenhouse's legal teams. "Sandmann will have custody on
weekdays, with custody transferring over to Rittenhouse on holidays and
weekends."
After the announcement, Rittenhouse began weeping upon
realizing he was now a multimillionaire, while Sandmann smirked like a
big MAGA hat-wearing jerkface.
Neither party has decided what to do with Brian Stelter, who may have to be put up for adoption.
Oh, and let's not forget scumbag nigger Maurice Freeland, also known as "Jump Kick Man," who drop kicked Kyle Rittenhouse during the melee:
Maurice Freeland attacking Kyle Rittenhouse-- The 4th Scumbag in the incident. I hope Kyle Rittenhouse sues this horrible nigger
From Jonathan Turley:
"Freeland has a lengthy criminal history in Wisconsin, including charges for battery, disorderly conduct and driving while intoxicated this year. That means that all of the alleged victims had criminal records. In Freeland’s case, he has an open criminal complaint for domestic violence for an attack on his partner in a drunken rage, ultimately throwing her to the ground and kicking her in her ribcage before she managed to flee. He has various violent offenses in his record as well as escaping from custody and parole violations."
In our age of rage, Rittenhouse had to be convicted to fulfill the narrative. Acquittal has to be evidence of a racist justice system.
The full acquittal of Kyle Rittenhouse is now in. The result was hardly a surprise to many of us who watched the trial rather than the media coverage. The jury spent days carefully considering the evidence and could not find a single count that was supported beyond a reasonable doubt.
In
rendering its verdict, the jury fulfilled its core function in our
legal system. The jury was designed to protect an individual from
becoming the grist of a criminal justice system. As the Supreme Court
noted in Duncan v. Louisiana (1968):
"Providing
an accused with the right to be tried by a jury of his peers gave him
an inestimable safeguard against the corrupt or overzealous prosecutor
and against the compliant, biased, or eccentric judge."
The
American jury is designed to stand between the mob and a defendant;
between the government and the accused. The thin line of a dozen
citizens can prove the most unassailable wall for justice in our system.
The Media's Guilty Verdict
There
was, however, a second verdict in that courtroom for those who have
been maintaining a distorted or incomplete account to this trial. From
the outset, politicians and media figures insisted that this was a case
of murders committed by a white supremacist. Then-presidential
candidate Joe Biden labeled Rittenhouse a “white supremacist” in
a tweet showing his photo and demanded to know why then-President
Donald Trump did not “disavow white supremacists.” Much of the media
followed suit with an echo chamber of coverage that led some people to believe that these were essentially executions on the streets of Kenosha. Columnist Elie Mystal called the trial a sham.
What
happened next was even more chilling. Faced with a collapsing case in
court, many of the same media outlets struck out at the judge, the jury,
and the legal system. MSNBC host Tiffany Cross advocated for the judge's removal. Rittenhouse was mocked for his "male, white tears" on national television. Georgetown law professor Paul Butler called the trial “white privilege on steroids.”
The
danger of such reckless legal analysis is now evident. Judging from the
coverage, one could have easily concluded that a conviction in this
case was inescapable. Many reports prioritized still pictures of
Rittenhouse walking menacingly with his rifle and omitted many of the
countervailing facts that occupied much of the trial. Many viewers may
not have learned that Rittenhouse spent his time cleaning graffiti off the high school.
Most
people seem to disagree with the decision of Rittenhouse and others to
show up at the protests armed. However, many also perceived the alleged
victims as rioters who were engaged in violent acts, including attacks on Rittenhouse.
In our siloed society, people rely on news sources that tend to confirm their bias and presuppositions in such trials.
The problem is that such coverage is self-fulfilling.
By
misrepresenting and not reporting key facts, media increased the
likelihood that the acquittal will be read as confirmation of a racist
trial in a racist justice system. That fuels the type of rioting that we
saw in Kenosha after the shooting of Jacob Blake in a scuffling with
police. Ironically, that case was also widely misrepresented in much of the media.
The Blake case was the subject of both state and federal investigations that rejected charges against the officer.
Yet, the inaccurate coverage of that case continued to enrage viewers
who were not fully informed of the facts leading up to the use of
force. The various investigations found that the officers were required to arrest Blake
on charges of third-degree sexual assault, criminal trespass and
disorderly conduct. Two different officers used a taser on Blake, which
failed. Investigations also found that Blake was armed and resisting arrest.
The
growing disconnect between actual crimes and their coverage is unlikely
to change in our age of rage. Rittenhouse had to be convicted to
fulfill the narrative and any acquittal had to be evidence of a racist
jury picked to carryout racist justice.
That is
what occurred in the Rittenhouse trial. The jury stood between a mob
and a defendant to see that objective justice was done. On that chaotic night on Aug. 25, 2020,
in Kenosha, few things were clear. What is clear however is that the
shooting – and those killed and accused – became vehicles for broader
narratives. Those popular portrayals crashed in Kenosha on a wall of 12
jurors who ruled by proof rather than passion.
I wanted to turn your attention to a side by side comparison map
comparing the COVID pandemic of last year to this year. It is a true
“photo is worth a million words” tweet from Rational Ground’s Woke
Zombie:
The symmetry is indeed amazing. And the conclusion, after over 600 days of COVID Mania, could not be more clear.
Not
a single “public health expert”-hailed mitigation or suppression
measure, including the COVID shots, has done anything significant to
solve the reality that lots of people get sick during their area’s
annual respiratory season. This global war on a virus is going about as
well as the War on Afghanistan went when it came to eliminating the
Taliban.
The lockdowns failed to stop a virus.
The universal masking regime failed to stop a virus.
The millions and millions of societal restrictions and business closures failed to stop a virus.
And now it’s become pretty clear that the highly-touted “miracle” mRNA shots are failing to stop a virus..
Instead
of accepting this reality, world governments are doubling, tripling,
and quadrupling down on the madness. Despite incredibly high compliance
rates, with an estimated 7.5+ billion COVID shots delivered in arms, the
mRNA “cure” has not lived up to its admittedly impossible to achieve
standards.
In the span of 6 months, we went from:
“You’re not gonna get COVID if you have these vaccinations”
To our current reality of another season of lockdowns, restrictions, and the usual, nonsensical “public health measures.”
7.5+ billion shots later, those of us who’ve followed the data closely have found out that all of the aforementioned statements, endorsed by the most renowned Government Health officials in the world, were complete nonsense. Weapons-grade nonsense. They were nowhere near remotely close to even representing a scintilla of truth.
Today we know that the shots serve as something akin to a potential 6-9 month prophylactic with unknown long term side effects. The expiring efficacy, which was best observed through first mover nations like Israel and Ireland, brought about the booster shot regime, but no recognition from world governments that the shots seem to be expiring. The boosters have been sold under this weird idea that you can get “extra protection,” even though you’ve been told you were already “fully vaccinated.”
Government Health officials and major pharmaceutical companies have leveraged these half truths, as part of a CYA campaign for elected officials, and a money grab for Pfizer, Moderna, and those interested in injecting 5 year olds with expiring experimental shots.
And the booster, which is the exact same formulation as the original shots, unsurprisingly seems to have the same lack of virus killing power as the first two shots.
In Gibraltar 🇬🇮, the most vaccinated place on Earth, 100% of the population is vaccinated and 40% with booster, but: 👇 pic.twitter.com/w9qBuKBVF7
But you and I, we’re not the majority here, sadly. Those of us who are thinking clearly about this issue are a growing coalition, but we still face an uphill battle.
World governments, with the assistance of Big Tech, have convinced the masses, without any legitimate evidence, that it’s the “unvaccinated” who are responsible for our continuing COVID problem.
Check out the logic used by the leader of Austria, the first Western country to mandate COVID shots on the entire population.
“Increasing the vaccination rate — and I think we’re all in agreement on this — is our only way to break out of this vicious cycle of viral waves and lockdown discussions for good,” Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg, who has imposed a nationwide lockdown on his country, told the media this weekend. “We don’t want a fifth wave, we don’t want a sixth and seventh wave.”
Austrian Police Randomly Check the Vaccination Status of Shoppers After Lockdown of Unvaccinated pic.twitter.com/sqKSQu7F9u
— 🇨🇦1799🇨🇦🇺🇸🚓❤️ (@wa_kin_gup) November 16, 2021
"It hurts that such measures still have to be taken." --Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg 🙄https://t.co/KkzSckuiQ7
Schallenberg is lying and he knows it. The shots will not prevent another wave of sickness. These “waves” are simply the reality of a seasonal respiratory effect that happens every single year. The global ruling class have been lying to the masses for a long time. They’d rather not admit to all of these sunk costs, so the political elite will continue to uphold the myth that the COVID shots are still some kind of magic bullet that they are not.
Those who did not comply from the beginning of COVID Mania serve to pose the biggest threat to the power of these maniacal politicians. That’s why they’re attacking us so ferociously. The political elite pretend as if they care about COVID, but it’s not the virus that is keeping them up at night. It’s those pesky individuals who refuse to bend the knee – those are the ones in the crosshairs. The control group is the biggest threat to the people in power. They simply can’t survive the political ramifications of a control group outperforming the citizens living under the weight of destructive COVID Mania mandates and societal edicts.
