Black American Cultural Collapse Reaches White House

I recently wrote a blog that Arab/Muslim culture is in collapse.  African American culture is in collapse as well.

The "black culture" in the US is a trainwreck of stupidity, corruption, sexual depravity, immorality and criminality.  It's a trainwreck that envelopes the entire community; responsible citizens included. Worse, our liberal culture now suppresses horrifying news of the widespread criminality and systematically portrays black people in an unrealistically favorable light.  In part, because of that subtle propaganda, the black American trainwreck has reached to the highest offices of the land.  And the result is that the Obama administration is also a trainwreck of incompetence, corruption and stupidity.

Personal Anecdote Witnessing the African American Trainwreck
I used to know about 6 black adults ranging from 21 years old to mid-40s who lived in my condo complex.  Most were friends of a black couple who rented a unit here--one was employed and one was a serious pot-head and unemployed.  Even though they were renting, they made a rash decision to remodel the unit, tearing out appliances (that didn't belong to them).  Soon other impulsive decisions led them to abandon the apartment and leave the apartment wrecked. (with the owner left with the uncompensated damages).  During those few short months, I also met their friends who were also caught up in their own dramas.  One 21 year old guy was recently infected with HIV.  His partner, who infected him, stabbed him one day in a rage and put him in the hospital.  None of these people were criminals but, by their bone-headed, stupid and reckless actions, they ended up committing crimes. 

Black American Culture is a Complete Trainwreck    
72% of newborn black babies are born to a family without a father. (link)  That is by far the most devastating statistic. It wasn't always so bad. Children born without fathers was 16% in the 1960s.  From the NYT,  “the simple, tragic truth is that a large number of young black men do engage in violent acts and other forms of criminal behavior and over 80 percent of black children have been abandoned emotionally and, usually, economically by their fathers,”  Sadly, their fathers had been abandoned too. So, it's an inter-generational problem.

Gonorrhea infections are is 18 times the rate of infections of whites.  Black men represent 70% of new HIV cases or 7 times the rate of whites.   The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports that black women accounted for 35.4% of all abortions in 2009 but only represent 12.5% of the population.  Abortion rates for black women is 4 times the rate of those for all other women.

Black America Criminal Trainwreck
Some 37% of blacks aged 20 to 34 without a high school diploma are in prison.  Comparing all males aged 20 to 34 yrs old, black rates of incarceration in 2010 is 10 times that of white Americans. (link) 

Blacks make up nearly 50% of our nation's prison population (link).  Black men commit about 56% of the gun murders   Homicide rates by blacks is 7 to 8 times that of whites. (here)  And 90% of that crime is directed against other black people.   Even nice, well meaning black folks are afflicted by the the black community's criminality and stupidity.  It's dangerous to be black in this country but nobody seems to care.

"Knockout" Attacks Are Overwhelmingly Black Thug Crimes
Take the media's recent  coverage of "knockout" crimes where young criminals are attacking innocent bystanders, often elderly or Jewish or even children, to try to knock them out with a single punch.  See here, here and here for example.  Then they walk away laughing.  What is not being reported is that these attacks are almost entirely committed by blacks.

'Flash Rob' Crimes Overwhelmingly Black Thug Culture
There has been a quiet but widespread epidemic of black "flash robs" where groups of black thugs mob innocent (white) victims in the street or rush into retail stores, rob them blind and run out the door.  The national media, as usual, is generally not reporting on this.  I reported about it on my blog Numerous Incidences of Black Mob Violence Not Being Reported.   Here's a video describing it: 

Real Black Male Unemployment Rate is Actually 21%, Not 13%
According to the latest employment report, only 7.3 million black men are employed with 1.1 million out of work, with an indicated unemployment rate of 13%.  The reality is that there are some 0.8 million black men in prison and are not counted anywhere.   If you added them to the ranks of unemployed, you would have a 21% unemployment rate.  Black women are doing better.  But like I said, even if you're a responsible black citizen, you're most often caught up in the community's dysfunction and criminality.

Black High School Graduation Rates Reported at 50% is Misleading
Even the dismal graduation rate of 50% is better than actual.  The problem is that there are so many young blacks in prison who are not counted.  That 50% graduation rate is too high because they are not counting the young people in prison! 

Black Politicians Are Nearly ALL Stupid and Corrupt
Black politicians are routinely elected and re-elected regardless of record, regardless of qualifications, regardless of corrupt and criminal wrongdoings and regardless of criminal indictments and even jail time.   Just look at the sorry record of Black Democratic voters and the politicians they support in Washington DC and Detroit: Marion Barry, Vincent Gray, Kwalme Kilpatrick, Charlie Rangel and Jesse Jackson Jr.   It's all dismal.  And you think Obama and Holder are any better??
 
We elected Obama because of he was black and "seemed" intelligent.  But the results are entirely predictable. There are no domestic or foreign policy successes and nothing but failures, corruption, lawlessness, dysfunction as far as the eye can see.  Dodd Frank is a flop, ObamaCare is a disaster, the "stimulus"was a joke of pork spending and no shovel-ready jobs, most of our of our allies (and opposition party) are now alienated and/or insulted by this ignorant administration.  While we snub our historical allies, now we are empowering our enemies in Syria, Russia and Iran. Witness the crappy deal to appease Iran's criminal mullahs for the sake of a political"victory." Get ready for 3 more years of failures from this incompetent, lame-duck administration.

Sorry Oprah, People Are Critical of Obama's Policies--Not His Race

In a recent BBC interview, Oprah called the people who criticize Obama as racists by saying:

“There are still generations of people, older people, who were born and bred and marinated in it, in that prejudice and racism, and they just have to die,” Oprah said.

And she condemned criticism of President Barack Obama by saying that much of it is steeped in racism. “Yeah, I think that there is a level of disrespect for the office that occurs, and that occurs in some cases and maybe even many cases because he’s African-American.”

Just today according to a CBS poll, Obama's approval rating dropped to 37% and his disapproval rating up to 57%.  Gee, according to Oprah only 37% are not racists?? 

Sorry Oprah, I love you, but in this case you're wrong.  Obama was elected twice with a substantial majority of white voters.  Blaming racism is just an excuse.  It's Obama's misguided policies and poor performance that people are criticizing.  And it's Obama that is hurting the stature of the Presidency:  his incompetence, his divisiveness, his class warfare, and his administration's attempts to skirt the Constitution.  There are nothing but failures in both domestic and foreign policy.  Show me any ANY successes.  

Speaking of disrespect for the office, where was Oprah, when the liberal media and their minions brutally "demeaned the office" under George Bush??   Yes, Bush made a huge mistake in Iraq, but he wasn't a policy idiot like the current administration.

Obama was promoted all his life through smooth-talking and affirmative action, with no significant achievement.  Worse there is still no significant achievement, except the destructive ObamaCare.  Only now, people are seeing that there is no substance to this man.  This is because the media and public failed to properly "vet" candidate Obama.   Because of this, get ready for 3 more years of failure, incompetence and crisis.

Where Are Interest Rates Going?

Where are interest rates going?  That's a big question at the moment since government bond interest rates have risen in recent months by over 1 full percentage point from about 1.7% to about 2.8%.   Mortgage rates have risen from about 3.6% to about 4.5%.

In a way, this blog entry is a follow-up to my blog Why the Fed Hasn't Created Inflation Yet.  I mention this because there is a general relation of interest rates to inflation rates. 

Below is a graph of 10 and 20 year US Treasury yields in recent years (2005 to Present).  The blip upwards on the right hand side of the chart is what recently happened when the Federal Reserve began talking about removing it's interest rate suppression program (it's bond buying program called quantitative easing).   Since we've gotten used to extremely low interest rates, including historically low mortgage rates, the natural question is high how will rates go if and when the Fed exits it's bond buying program.

US Treasury Yields (Green Line is 7 year note, Blue is 20 year Bond, Grey is the difference)

Here's a really long term picture of interest rates.  I find it, well, depressing that long term interest rates today are back to levels similar to those during the Great Depression.

How High Might Interest Rates Rise? 

Nobody knows how high interest rates will rise, but you can make some guesses based on inflation expectations and history.

Scenario 1:  It's possible that rates will revert to levels prior to the financial crisis starting in 2008.  If so, then expect about  5% rates on the 10 and 30 year Treaury bonds, respectively (compared to 2.7 and 3.8% now).  See the first chart above.  This is highly unlikely as inflation was much higher in 2008 than now.  Inflation expectations were also higher as asset bubbles were really "bubbling."  The housing bubble burst in that year.  See charts below.

CPI inflation was spiking just prior to the financial crisis. See the charts below.  CPI inflation was spiking to about 4 or 5% before the bust in early 2008 meaning that inflation-adjusted interest rates were 0 or negative.  Now CPI inflation is running less than 2% and trending down slowly.  That's a big difference. 

Scenario 2: The level of interest rates should give about 1 to 1.5% of 'real' returns after taking into account inflation (and inflation expectations). This is good generalization from history. Since CPI inflation is about 1.5 to 2% today (see the graph below for CPI inflation chart), then interest rates should be 2.5% to 3.5%, which is about the level that we are at today!    In this scenario, it appears interest rates may not rise further, or maybe even fall.  Afterall, bond yields have been falling for 30 years now---ever since Paul Volcker crushed inflation early in the Reagan years.

The Real Question Might Be: How Low Will Interest Rates Go?

Why The Fed QE Program Hasn't Created Inflation Yet

Most people are aware that the Federal Reserve is buying a large amount of US government bonds.

Since the current bond buying is $85 billion per month ($45 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in Mortgage backed debt), they are now buying most of the bonds being issued by government.  They are essentially facilitating large government deficit spending; spending that is indeed "showering" money on the economy.  This alone is theoretically inflationary in normal times.   But the intent of the bond buying is driving interest rates to abnormally low levels..  All of this is known to be inflationary, but we're not seeing high CPI inflation.

But there are early signs of inflation in certain assets. Government spending has continually inflated medical costs, for instance, even in recessionary times. See my blog: Early Warning Signs of Inflation. 

Also, the program is causing additional potential problems.  By lowering (distorting) interest rates, they have also distorted stock prices (higher), caused underpricing of mortgage rates, etc.  Mortgage rates are distorted below profitable levels (taking into consideration default rates) so banks can't compete with the government.  Because of this, very few mortgages originate at banks---nearly all come from Fannie, Freddie Mac and FHA--who are absorbing unlimited losses of defaults to the account of the taxpayers.

The Mechanism Of Federal Reserve Money Creation

When the Fed buys bonds, it deposits the money in the accounts of the banks of the securities brokers.   Those deposits show up as M1 money, otherwise called "high powered money" or part of the "monetary base."  It's called "high powered" because there is a multiplier effect of M1 money.  Once this is lent out, it causes about a 4 fold increase in the broader money supply statistics.  Since M1 has rocketed up by over $1 Trillion, this means the M2 money could rocket up by $3 to $4 Trillion, which means that the broader money supply (M2) would rise about 50%.  This would be highly inflationary.   This monetary base been rocketing up since 2008 with Federal Reserve bond buying.  Banks could lend this base money out consistent with the reserve requirements of the Federal Reserve, but they haven't for the most part.  Because they haven't lent it out is why inflation hasn't taken off.  

So, what we have is large amounts of "excess reserves" in our banking system. We almost always have some excess reserves (banks just take what they need to meet the demand for loans)  but now it's a very large number.  And it's true that it hasn't been lent out to the public and therefore hasn't created a more serious inflation problem.  But you could say that it's monetary "tinder" sitting there waiting to be lent out--which could catch fire so to speak.  Yes, you could argue that if inflation ticks-up, that the Federal Reserve could just adjust the reserve requirements to slow or halt the loan-making process.  But the market perceives an inflation threat down the road.  Also some of this money is making it's way into stocks and bonds and causing dangerous asset bubbles.  That's why QE can't continue ad infinitum.

Then comes the question of reducing the number of bonds on the Fed's balance sheet.  Maybe it can be done without incident, but we're in uncharted waters. We've already seen a huge jump in interest rates (from 1.6% to 2.8% on 10 year treasuries) when the Fed even hinted that the bond buying program might end.  Maybe the Fed will just let the bonds just sit there and let the bonds mature. But none of this has ever been attempted on this scale.  We're in uncharted territory and PhDs at the Fed are conducting a massive experiment in monetary policy with incomplete understanding of the costs of unwinding of the program or other unintended consequences.  

Let's be clear, the PhDs at the Federal Reserve don't really know what they're doing and they are making it up as they go.  

Man Has Caused Global Warming, But Forget Cap and Trade

Yes, man has caused the global climate to warm over the past 100 years--an increase of about 1.6 deg F, up to 2.4 F (in northern latitudes). But it's not a reason for panic.  The hydrocarbon era might only last another 100 years with a similar temperature rise as seen in the last 100 years. The sea will have risen 10 inches in the next 100 years too.  (See my blog Global Warming Made Easy.)

I recently wrote a blog called What Causes Ice Ages?    From ice core data (see graph below), CO2 varied naturally over about 100,000 year cycle from about 190 ppm to 280 ppm, whereas we've popped up to 400 ppm in just the past 60 years.  Already we're outside of anything seen in 420,000 years of natural history.   Clearly man has released carbon back into the atmosphere; carbon that was laid-down during previous geologic epochs.  That carbon was in the atmosphere in warmer geologic periods. We're just slightly re-warming the Earth back to conditions in previous eras.

420,000 Years of Climate Data From Vostok Ice Cores

Forget Cap and Trade or Taxing Carbon, Embrace Thorium MSR Reactors

My most important point is that, although man has caused warming,  the cost to re-tool the economy away from fossil fuels is so great that it's not going to be done.  Furthermore, since the warming is basically benign, it's not worth spending the money! It would cost $10s of Trillions in the US alone. It's just not going to happen.

Since we need to reduce CO2 emissions by over 50% just to stop the CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere, cap and trade doesn't work.  It's just about taxation.  Cap and trade just leaves CO2 emissions at current levels meaning a steady ascent of atmospheric CO2.  To reverse global warming, you would have to reduce CO2 emissions by GREATER than 50 to 60% to actually reduce CO2 (and temperatures).  (See my blog: Climate Change Update)   It's basically impossible to do without seriously harming the world's economy and ballooning already high debt levels.

The answer to our problems is in technology.  Eventually we need something like Thorium energy to power the economies of the world.   The sooner the better!  China and Norway are already putting these reactors into use.  See: Thorium Reactors may solve the world's energy crisis.

30 to 40% of Healthcare.gov Not Built Yet

Hey, the Federal healthcare exchanges are supposed to up and ready by the end of this month, but it turns out that it's a LONG way away from being ready.  Add that to another lie by Misstra Know-It-All.

From CNBC:

A crucial system for making payments to insurers from people who enroll in that federal Obamacare marketplace has yet to be built, a senior government IT official admitted Tuesday.

The official, Henry Chao, visibly stunned Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) when he said under questioning before a House subcommittee that a significant fraction of HealthCare.gov—30 to 40 percent of it—has yet to be constructed.

 "We still need to build the payments system to make the payments [to insurance companies] in January," testified Chao, deputy chief information officer of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the federal agency that operates HealthCare.gov.

 "That's like setting up an online bank without setting up a way to make deposits," an industry source told CNBC.

So, the back-office accounting and payment system(s) aren't ready!   Oh, and don't forget the security of your data is still at risk.  That's not "built" either.

Oh, and the all of the economic, and other assumptions, of the entire ObamaCare enterprise are wrong:

1. that young people will pay more to 'subsidize' the older people, 
2. that people will want and pay a premium for a 'one-size-fits-all' insurance plans that all include expensive bells and whistles, 
3. it'll bend the cost curve down, 
4. you'll get to keep your plan, 
5. you'll be able to keep your doctor
6. and if you don't like it, tough, you don't have any choice thanks to big brother

You know ObamaCare is ill-conceived when:

1. the administration has to give over 1000 waivers to big business to exempt them from the requirements of the law, (and extracting unknown political favors and democratic party campaign money),
2. then they had to delay the entire employer mandate in it's entirety for one year
3. the President, at the last moment, has to instruct insurance companies to NOT cancel 10s of millions of "non-compliant" insurance plans (for one year), thereby kicking the can down the road---just in time for the 2014 elections,
4. you have to bribe the public with promises to look the other way with "no income verification for purposes of subsidies" (ie., promises of 'free' money!)
5. Soon, the President will have to delay the individual mandate as well---which means the program in it's entirety is a bust.  We might as well just repeal the whole mess.
6. we defeated Germany in WWII in 3 1/2 years-- but couldn't build the big government run website in exactly the same duration,
7. doctors are already leaving the profession,
8. Medicare is being cut by $716 million to subsidize the program and is already causing doctors to be dropped by the likes of United Health--meaning Medicare recipients will suffer
9. The net result of the law is that millions are losing coverage---not increasing coverage.

Did I forget anything?  Oh, the ObamaCare will require a taxpayer bailout next year because young and healthy people will not sign up and that will drive up exchange premiums even more next year.

Jeremy Grantham's Personal View of the Stock Market

From Zerohedge:

Timing Bear Markets

My personal view is that the Greenspan-Bernanke regime of excessive stimulus, now administered by Yellen, will proceed as usual, and that the path of least resistance, for the market will be up. I believe that it would take a severe economic shock to outweigh the effect of the Fed’s relentless pushing of the market. Look at the market’s continued advance despite almost universal disappointment in economic growth. Exhibit 3 below shows the economic forecasts for major economic countries made a year ago by the IMF compared to what actually happened. Only Japan was a modest pleasant surprise at 0.7% ahead of forecast and the U.K. and Switzerland scraped home by the skin of their teeth. Everyone else fell short. There have been few such occasions when such broad disappointment with economic growth still allowed the U.S. and most other major economies to make material upward moves in their stock markets. It is yet another testimonial to the global reach of the Fed’s stimulus of equities (as was the very substantial decline in emerging market equities on just talk of tapering!)

In equities there are few signs yet of a traditional bubble [like in 1999]. In the U.S. individuals are not yet consistent buyers of mutual funds.  This time [the bubble] is unprecedented [corporate profit] margins, usually the most dependably mean reverting of all financial series, which are apparently now the new normal.  By June this year, markets felt relatively quiet and under the surface there was still a considerable undertow of risk aversion in the institutions. The Russell 2000 and the GMO High Quality universe were both just level with the S&P, all up 16%. Normally we would have expected the Russell to outperform handsomely. However, since then speculation has perked up so that today, the broad U.S. market is up 20% and the Russell 2000 is a more typical six points ahead while stocks in the GMO High Quality universe are several points behind. We have also had a sharp and unexpected uptick in parts of the IPO market in the U.S., so I would think that we are probably in the slow build-up to something interesting – a badly overpriced market and bubble conditions.

My personal guess is that the U.S. market, especially the non-blue chips, will work its way higher, perhaps by 20% to 30% in the next year or, more likely, two years, with the rest of the world including emerging market equities covering even more ground in at least a partial catch-up. And then we will have the third in the series of serious market busts since 1999 and presumably Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, et al. will rest happy, for surely they must expect something like this outcome given their experience. And we the people, of course, will get what we deserve.

I Told You So: Job Report Manipulation Before 2012 Election

I find it rich that the media is finally forced to report that there was at least some manipulation of the BLS unemployment data just prior to the November election.  I believe that the BLS jobs report was a blatant attempt to manipulate the election results.  It's not the only thing we now know done to affect the election.  We only recently found out that the administration was spying on and intimidating any opposition news reporter or opposition media outlet through illegal surveillance.

Obama's first term performance on the economy was extremely poor. The so-called stimulus turned out to be just a giveaway to public unions, it didn't have any infrastructure projects to speak of, and there weren't any "shovel ready" jobs created.   Any job supposedly created by the so-called stimulus was created at a cost of $450,000 per job.   Worse, Obama spent most of his first term ignoring jobs and pursuing his doomed-to-fail healthcare initiative when, what the nation really needed, was jobs, jobs, and more jobs. 

Obama should have been swept from office in any normal times.  But the media "helped" him and covered his faults and lies.

Back to the September 2012 Employment Report reported in late October 2012

The current allegation is that there was at least one bad actor who made-up employment survey results but supposedly it's not enough to "move the needle" on results.  I bet that this manipulation, just like the IRS scandal, is just the tip of the iceberg.  The whole thing stinks to high heaven.  It always has. But we'll never know because the government is going to investigate the government???  I doubt it.  You should doubt it too.

I told you how it the data was extremely unlikely and extremely suspicious in my blog Sept 2012 Jobs Report Even More Doubtful.   I also found the media reaction to anyone who suspected malfeasance particularly annoying.  Anyone who questioned the veracity of the government data was skewered by outright libel by liberal members of the media.  Disgusting.

It's the most disgusting thing in the world when the media is completely subservient to one candidate (Obama)---especially when we have now confirmed that nearly everything done or said by Obama is a lie or wrong: 1) bending the cost curve down, 2) you can keep your plan, 3) you can keep your doctor,4) the Benghazi attack was spontaneous and due to a YouTube film, 4) the lies about and the smears of candidate Romney, 5) shovel-ready jobs, and 6)  that Dodd-Frank will "fix" the "too big to fail"problem and 7) the economy is improving because the unemployment rate is going down (but nearly all due to people giving up looking for work) are all falsehoods.

The media lapped-up the lies and bad-mouthed anyone who expressed skepticism.  It's the media who's supposed to be skeptical!!    

We won't have a democracy at all if we don't have a skeptical and investigative media.  What we have today is a hysterical, lazy, intellectually deficient, and politically complicit media who have done more to disseminate the propaganda coming from the administration than anything else.  Now everyone knows the lies are pervasive.  No wonder 72% of Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track.

See my blog: The Media's Sacred Role in Democracy.

In Praise Of Conservative Democrat John F. Kennedy

PBS has some great programs that you can watch online.  See here for their website.  It's a terrific resource for you and your family.  

Recently I was watching the 2nd Part of the "American Masters" program about John F. Kennedy.   It was very good and interesting to compare Democrat John F. Kennedy of 50 years ago to the Democrats today.  He was surprisingly conservative.  Or perhaps current Democrats are so liberal?

JFK was not a "liberal" president as is commonly believed.  He was positively conservative compared to the current crop of Democrats.  I'd say that he might be best compared today to Joe Lieberman or even Ronald Reagan in his anti-communist fervor.   Remember Joe Lieberman was pushed out of the Democratic party to run as an Independent.  JFK might have even been a Republican today.

JFK, in fact, was not only an ardent anti-communist, but he adopted supply-side corporate and individual marginal tax rate cuts to spur growth.  He was a hawk when it came to Russia and he believed in peace through strength.  He stepped into the civil rights issue only because the "Freedom Riders" made it impossible for him to ignore their protests in the segregationist South.  Unfortunately, he also started our intervention in Vietnam to try to prevent another fallen domino to the imperialist communists.

JFK's Speech In Berlin in 1963

In 1963, JFK went to deliver an address to the beseized Berliners.  His brief message, in defense of Democracy, was a stern denunciation of Communism some 22 months after the Soviet Union had erected the "Iron Curtain."  Not only were people held captive behind the curtain, but the communists had also failed to allow free elections as demanded by Truman during the Potsdam Conference.  Here's an excerpt of the speech (from Millercenter dot org.):

Freedom has many difficulties and democracy is not perfect, but we have never had to put a wall up to keep our people in, to prevent them from leaving us. I want to say, on behalf of my countrymen, who live many miles away on the other side of the Atlantic, who are far distant from you, that they take the greatest pride that they have been able to share with you, even from a distance, the story of the last 18 years. I know of no town, no city, that has been besieged for 18 years that still lives with the vitality and the force, and the hope and the determination of the city of West Berlin. While the wall is the most obvious and vivid demonstration of the failures of the Communist system, for all the world to see, we take no satisfaction in it, for it is, as your Mayor has said, an offense not only against history but an offense against humanity, separating families, dividing husbands and wives and brothers and sisters, and dividing a people who wish to be joined together.

What is true of this city is true of Germany—real, lasting peace in Europe can never be assured as long as one German out of four is denied the elementary right of free men, and that is to make a free choice. In 18 years of peace and good faith, this generation of Germans has earned the right to be free, including the right to unite their families and their nation in lasting peace, with good will to all people. You live in a defended island of freedom, but your life is part of the main. So let me ask you, as I close, to lift your eyes beyond the dangers of today, to the hopes of tomorrow, beyond the freedom merely of this city of Berlin, or your country of Germany, to the advance of freedom everywhere, beyond the wall to the day of peace with justice, beyond yourselves and ourselves to all mankind.

Freedom is indivisible, and when one man is enslaved, all are not free. When all are free, then we can look forward to that day when this city will be joined as one and this country and this great Continent of Europe in a peaceful and hopeful globe. When that day finally comes, as it will, the people of West Berlin can take sober satisfaction in the fact that they were in the front lines for almost two decades.

All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens of Berlin, and, therefore, as a free man, I take pride in the words "Ich bin ein Berliner!"

The speech is reminiscent of Reagan's "tear down this wall" speech--which did result in the dismantling of the Iron Curtain some 30 years later.

JFK's Tax Cut Speech in 1963

JFK advocated and succeeded in lowering very high marginal tax rates (up to 91%) on both corporations and individuals, across the board, to spur the economy.  He said the following:

"In short," he stated, "to increase demand and lift the economy, the federal government's most useful role is not to rush into a program of excessive increases in public expenditures, but to expand the initiatives and opportunities for private expenditures."

"Our true choice is not between tax reduction, on the one hand, and the avoidance of large federal deficits on the other," he declared.

The "paradoxical truth" is that "tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now."

 Here's the speech (2 minutes):

Liberals pooh-pooh the conservative aspect of this by pointing out how high the marginal rates were, but the truth is that Federal revenues as a percentage of the economy is about the same as today--about 20%. There have always been itemized deductions and credits to reduce the bite of high tax rates.   But a tax cut is a tax cut.

President Kennedy would be welcomed as a great Republican or a great conservative Democrat today!

What Causes Ice Ages?

A Serbian scientist named Milutin Milankovitch quantified long-cycle variations of the earth's orbit around the sun.  He wrote a book in 1930 that documented his calculations of the amount of sunlight that each latitude received during every variation of the earth's orbit.  It turns out that the earth's orbit has three different types of "perturbations."  From the excellent NASA article, the orbit variations are of three types:  

1. The circle around the sun becomes more oval and less circular (and back to circular).   This cycle is about 100,000 years long.   This means the Earth moves closer to the Sun at times when it's orbit is more "elliptical."
2. The seasonal tilt of the Earth varies over 41,000 years between 22 deg and 24 degrees. The less the tilt, the less the seasonal variation.  The more the tilt, the more solar radiation at the higher latitudes.
3. The Earth wobbles on it's axis (like a wobbly top) with a cycle lasting 19,000 to 23,000 years.

A Good Description of Milankovitch Cycles (Click to Enlarge) grahamhancock.com origin

Based on the orbital variations, Milankovitch predicted that the ice ages would peak every 100,000 and 41,000 years, with additional “blips” every 19,000 to 23,000 years.   This is all verified by ice core, tree rings, coral reef and geological records, sea levels, glacial extent, etc.   From Nasa, here's variations over the past 2 1/2 million years.

Milankovitch's Cycles Over the Past 2.5 Million Years

What this means is that there are regular periods of reduced solar radiation and cooler temperatures in higher latitudes (especially at 65 degrees North) that allow winter snow pack to persist through the summer months.  Once snow pack persists over the summer, it increases in extent and forms a "micro-climate" that reinforces the stability of the growing snow fields.  Snow fields become glaciers.   There you go, that's why there are ice ages:  it's the effect of Milankovitch cycles!

The past 100 years of global warming and CO2 accumulation is an entirely different topic than this blog--since the past 100 years of CO2 accumulation and temperature change is far outside of any range shown in the natural history record----therefore clearly caused by man.

Here's good graph of the record of Antarctic ice from Vostok showing 420,000 year record of CO2 levels, CH4 levels and insolation at 65 degrees latititude (higher insolation means more sunshine and less glaciation):

420,000 years of Ice Core Records from Vostok Antarctica showing Variations in Insolation at 65 deg Latitude Causes Variation in CO2 and Methane

My knowledge of this is highly superficial.  Another excellent article on this topic is at the excellent Wikipedia.   It says that we are in a warming cycle for the next 40,000 years, so unfortunately we can expect no help from the Milankovitch cycles to offset the effect of our rising CO2. 

ObamaCare Navigators Helping to Defraud Taxpayers

James O'Keefe, from Project Veritas, has done another investigative exposé after his first report blew the lid off the ACORN organization's fraud during the first Obama campaign.  Obama's use of that fraudulent army should have been the first and last warning to the American people that they were electing a charlatan candidate more suited to a banana republic than the USA.

Jame's latest effort shows how ObamaCare navigators are advising Obamacare applicants to basically lie, cheat and steal to fraudulently and unlawfully receive undeserved benefits from the government. Heck, Obama himself recently set the tone of this fraud by saying that the government would look the other way and not verify income for subsidy calculations.  He was literally inviting fraud.  It's not unlike President Maduro telling the people of Venezuela that it's OK to rob and strip the shelves of Daka stores.  It's exactly the same. 

We already have massive fraud in the Medicaid and Medicare system. We need more fraud?   There are other healthcare reform alternatives that would dramatically increase medical insurance coverage without big government corruption.

The report also finds that these navigators and the Obama administration are breaking other laws too. The group in Texas, Enroll America,  is supposed to be non-profit and non-partisan by it's registered IRS status.  But it's clear from the video evidence that they are breaking the law as they are clearly political and partisan.

After you see the video, you will be able to see the race of the vast majority of the navigators who advise lying on application forms.  Because, sadly, defrauding the government and "gaming the system" is part and parcel of African American culture. Heck, it's an integral aspect of culture in Africa too.  I worked a year in Nigeria and about 4 months in Gabon where "gaming the system" for "free" benefits is THE name of the game! And you see how well it's working over there??  (Hint: it's not!)   Black culture in this country is also a trainwreck and our country is heading down the same path.

Here's the video report from Project Veritas

It's time to bring back tar and feathers and run some people out of Washington on a rail.

"Fairness Doctrine" at Work in Venezuela

In Venezuela, over the weekend, Maduro ordered the military to take control of DAKA stores to enforce "fair" prices at the country's largest electronics store. The "unfair" prices are due to rapidly rising inflation caused by government policies (of course).

From Bloomberg's Megan McArdle:

President Nicolas Maduro ordered a military "occupation" of the company's five stores as he continues the government's crackdown on an "economic war" it says is being waged against the country, with the help of Washington.

The military "occupation" created a surge of shoppers waiting outside hoping to get a good deal (before price inflation takes hold again). But before long, the chaotic situation led to a free-for-all of looting of stores with the explicit approval of Maduro who was reported as saying (quote from ZeroHedge):

"This is for the good of the nation," Maduro said on state television. "Leave nothing on the shelves, nothing in the warehouses … Let nothing remain in stock!"

“I’m no looter, and neither are the Venezuelan people. Don’t fall into desperation,” Maduro said. “It’s the parasitic bourgeoisie that is looting Venezuela.” 

Some are saying that the whole episode was planned so as to end in looting to "boost" public sentiment. Here's a video of the organized robbery by looters with a "wink" and a "nod" from the President himself.

This kind of organized lawlessness has been a hallmark of Chavez and now Maduro for about 14 years now.   Just last week, Maduro stole 2 rigs from Houston-based Superior Energy Services after the Venezuela government failed to pay Superior $9 million for a year's worth of work.  Chavez has seized about 1000 companies in 14 years.   But now there's hardly anything left to steal.

Eventually Socialists run out of other people's money (and assets).  The money has run out.

Expect an outright collapse of the Venezuela economy and an even more dangerous period of chaos and blood-spilling.   The ignorant and uneducated people, who maintained these fools in power, will suffer even more.  Today food, tomorrow hunger.  You can't eat those Sony Bravia TVs.