From a great speech by AG Bill Barr to the Federalist Society found here. I highly recommend reading the entire speech. We are lucky as a country to have this man as Attorney General at this time.
"One of the ironies of today is that those who oppose this President constantly accuse this Administration of “shredding” constitutional norms and waging a war on the rule of law. When I ask my friends on the other side, what exactly are you referring to? I get vacuous stares, followed by sputtering about the Travel Ban or some such thing. While the President has certainly thrown out the traditional Beltway playbook, he was upfront about that beforehand, and the people voted for him. What I am talking about today are fundamental constitutional precepts. The fact is that this Administration’s policy initiatives and proposed rules, including the Travel Ban, have transgressed neither constitutional, nor traditional, norms, and have been amply supported by the law and patiently litigated through the Court system to vindication.
Indeed, measures undertaken by this Administration seem a bit tame when compared to some of the unprecedented steps taken by the Obama Administration’s aggressive exercises of Executive power – such as, under its DACA program, refusing to enforce broad swathes of immigration law.
The fact of the matter is that, in waging a scorched earth, no-holds-barred war of “Resistance” against this Administration, it is the Left that is engaged in the systematic shredding of norms and the undermining of the rule of law. This highlights a basic disadvantage that conservatives have always had in contesting the political issues of the day. It was adverted to by the old, curmudgeonly Federalist, Fisher Ames, in an essay during the early years of the Republic.
In any age, the so-called progressives treat politics as their religion. Their holy mission is to use the coercive power of the State to remake man and society in their own image, according to an abstract ideal of perfection. Whatever means they use are therefore justified because, by definition, they are a virtuous people pursing a deific end. They are willing to use any means necessary to gain momentary advantage in achieving their end, regardless of collateral consequences and the systemic implications. They never ask whether the actions they take could be justified as a general rule of conduct, equally applicable to all sides.
Conservatives, on the other hand, do not seek an earthly paradise. We are interested in preserving over the long run the proper balance of freedom and order necessary for healthy development of natural civil society and individual human flourishing. This means that we naturally test the propriety and wisdom of action under a “rule of law” standard. The essence of this standard is to ask what the overall impact on society over the long run if the action we are taking, or principle we are applying, in a given circumstance was universalized – that is, would it be good for society over the long haul if this was done in all like circumstances?
For these reasons, conservatives tend to have more scruple over their political tactics and rarely feel that the ends justify the means. And this is as it should be, but there is no getting around the fact that this puts conservatives at a disadvantage when facing progressive holy far, especially when doing so under the weight of a hyper-partisan media."
Friday, November 22, 2019
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
Blacks, Hispanics, Illegals Dominate Welfare Handouts
From American Renaissance article "Race, Welfare and Media Lies"
TANF
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) is what most people think of when they say “welfare.” It pays cash directly to users. The amount varies by state. In 2018 (the most recent data available), there were over 2.27 million recipients, who got nearly $17 billion. Here’s the racial breakdown (Table 10):| Race | % of Recipients | % of Population |
| White | 27.2% | 60.4% |
| Black | 28.9% | 13.4% |
| Hispanic | 37.8% | 18.3% |
| Asian | 1.9% | 5.9% |
| American Indian | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Multiracial | 2.1% | 2.7% |
Whites are clearly an absolute minority of recipients: just 27.2 percent of the total. There are more blacks and Hispanics on welfare than whites. On a per capita basis, blacks are 4.8 times more likely than whites to get TANF, and Hispanics are 4.7 times more likely. Asians are only two-thirds as likely.
Interestingly, over 85 percent of TANF recipients are single or divorced, and only 13 percent are married. Conservatives have long argued that marriage reduces poverty.
Food Stamps
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is better known as food stamps. In 2017, a staggering 42.1 million people got free food at a cost of $68 billion dollars. The racial breakdown (page 22):
| Race | % of Recipients | % of Population |
| White | 35.8% | 60.4% |
| Black | 25.4% | 13.4% |
| Hispanic | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| Asian | 3.2% | 5.9% |
| American Indian | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Multiracial | 1.0% | 2.7% |
| Unknown/Didn’t Say | 16.8% | NA |
Again, whites are an absolute minority of food stamp users. The 16.8 percent of “race unknown or didn’t say” is high, but they are unlikely to be white. An even bigger story is that 8.2 percent of recipients are children of non-citizens. A further 8.6 percent are refugees or non-citizens. We import food-stamp users.
Medicaid
Medicaid is health insurance for poor people. An incredible 74 million people were on it in 2017 (up from 46 million in 2001). It is paid for by a combination of state and federal funds, and on average it accounts for a crushing 22 percent of state budgets. In 2018, Medicaid cost over $592 billion, and the racial breakdown for users in 2017 was as follows:
| Race | % of Recipients | % of Population |
| White | 41% | 60.4% |
| Black | 30% | 13.4% |
| Hispanic | 20% | 18.3% |
| Asian | 5% | 5.4% |
| American Indian | 1% | 0.8% |
| Other | 9% | NA |
Again, whites are an absolute minority, though their percentage of recipients for this expensive program is relatively high.
Section 8 and other Public Housing
In 2017, there were nearly 5 million households in the US getting housing assistance through the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Most of them got Section 8 vouchers or lived in public housing. Blacks are massively over-represented.
Over 1 million people live in public housing. The racial breakdown is as follows:
| Race | % of Recipients | % of Population |
| White | 30% | 60.4% |
| Black | 42% | 13.4% |
| Hispanic | 23% | 18.3% |
| Asian | 2% | 5.4% |
| American Indian | 1% | 0.8% |
The “stereotype” of blacks in public housing is not false. There are more blacks than people of any other race in the projects, and on a per capita basis, they are 6.7 times more likely to be in them than whites.
Most of the other housing programs involve Section 8 vouchers. A category marked “All Relevant Programs,” includes Section 8 and includes 2.8 million recipients. Here is the race breakdown:
| Race | % of Recipients | % of Population |
| White | 29% | 60.4% |
| Black | 46% | 13.4% |
| Hispanic | 20% | 18.3% |
| Asian | 2% | 5.4% |
| American Indian | 1% | 0.8% |
Blacks are 7.1 times more likely than whites to use this benefit and Hispanics are 2.3 times more likely. Asians are only 77 percent as likely.
There are other welfare programs, but these four are the most important and paint a good picture of who is on the dole. American Renaissance has run articles on this since 1993, all of which show the same racial pattern:
It is clear that blacks and Hispanics take a disproportionate amount of government handouts. Who pays? Nearly half of US households pay no income taxes, but it is hard to get racial breakdowns of who does pay. I have seen several estimates, but none appears to be definitive. Perhaps the most considered estimate is from the blog Alternative Hypothesis, which estimates whites paid more than 75 percent of taxes in 2014.
Sunday, October 13, 2019
An SOS from Sweden
The Globalist/Davos Crowd/Marxist agenda is clear and evident around the world. Like open borders in the US, Sweden and much of Europe is now overrun with low median IQ persons from the Middle East and North Africa. The regions where migrant are from are in a state of collapse because that's what happens when the median IQ of a population is 85 and below. It's the people, stupid! The entire continent of Africa is mired in poverty, oppression, crime, death, war and tyranny. It's only slightly better in South and Central America (median IQs of 80 to 89). In these populations, there are just not enough sophisticated, bright, intellectual opinion leaders that can call out the phony, corrupt socialist and tyrannical leadership who are voted-in and take control of the country. I describe this a cultural clash as being due to differences in median IQ.
We're inundated by the phony memes of our day, most often propagated by lower IQ minorities ("the Squad" Hispanics like Jim Acosta, Idiots of the Black Caucus). And no, we're not all the same. No, not all religions are the same. And no, not all races are equal. The White Northern Europeans have been in fact superior in nearly every way. You will be booted off of Facebook, Twitter or any college campus for uttering any of those words since the speech-oppressive culture described in Orwell's 1984 book has asserted itself, (especially in Europe).
Below is a letter of desperation from a man in Sweden sent to Martin Armstrong, who in turn posted it in his blog. It's the same story in Germany and the rest of the EU except for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, who refused the migrant invasion are now the subject of political retribution by Brussels. Remember, no country was given a vote or a choice in policy. If you speak out against this policy, or site the obvious evidence of the utter failure of it, you will be arrested and charged with "hate speech." Welcome to Orwell's Europe.
You're beginning to see a descent into 3rd world status of poverty, disorder, crime and chaos in California too as the Marxists invite low skill, low IQ, low to no education migrants into the state. There are huge financial and social pressures building there, similar to the Swedish story below.
Here's the SOS letter from Sweden to Martin Armstrong:
Government debt is not catastrophic but the municipals are. The Government made the municipals take on the debt when the state unloaded immigrants in all our 290 municipals… Many municipals are now warning they are bankrupt and need emergency finance. So the Government is going to be forced to bail out the municipals very soon.
Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Please take a look at Sweden. I know you can not look at every single country but Sweden would be interesting since it is the country were socialism has gone farthest in the world and totally crazy. One of the most well-organized countries in the world with the oldest Central bank and well run global companies have turned into total chaos. Socialism has turned a peaceful country into a crime capital. Rapes are now among the highest per capita in the world. Robbery likewise. We are flooded with immigrants from MENA countries that have no skills. Many can’t even read. They live on welfare and get better paid than people working. Taxes are going through the roof. Police force under extreme pressure. Jails are overfull. Same with healthcare and education.
The municipals are bankrupt. They borrow via Kommunivest to meet the gigantic burden of immigrants. The loans go to welfare paychecks, not to investments. Kommuninvest issues international bonds and then lend to all municipals. International investors do not know how bad the financial situation is for Kommuninvest. It’s the Black Swedish Swan that is going to blow up soon. Mr. Hans Jensevik is the one person in Sweden that has worked with the municipals economy all his life. He is a very respected old-timer. He has even come out with a video warning international investors from buying Kommuninvest bonds!
Government debt is not catastrophic but the municipals are. The Government made the municipals take on the debt when the state unloaded immigrants in all our 290 municipals… Many municipals are now warning they are bankrupt and need emergency finance. So the Government is going to be forced to bail out the municipals very soon.
The state own media dominates TV and radio. Imagine only CNN running TV and radio channels in the US! Competitors only allowed entertainment. State own media pushing agenda on mass-migration, open borders, climate change, pro-euro and hate for Trump. All newspapers are subsisted by Government running the same agenda. Swedish Riksbank is trapped and forced to follow ECB down the drain with subzero rates and more QE. The SEK is tanking. This is not going to end well.
Could you please shed some light and interpret Socrates outlook for Sweden, SEK and OMX30
Thanks for your great work.
SG
Could you please shed some light and interpret Socrates outlook for Sweden, SEK and OMX30
Thanks for your great work.
SG
Thursday, October 10, 2019
How Your Money Goes "Poof" to "Money Heaven"
By far the biggest financial bubble in the world, and in history, is the rush to buy European bonds causing negative yields. The quantity of bonds with negative yields recently reached $17 Trillion! Of course this is causing a bond-buying mania in every other market, driving the US 10 Year bond to 1.5%
I warned a friend recently that it’s dangerous and there could be a violent reversal.
Then, in recent weeks, the ECB reverted to more QE to keep the game going. But surprisingly, there has been a chorus of people who, stating the obvious, roundly criticized the decision both on the ECB's monetary committee and in the media that the negative rates are killing the banks and the financial system. This dissent is new. But Draghi did it anyway despite the criticism on his own committee. He didn't even allow the committee to vote!
The ECB's QE motion was actually passed with a "relatively narrow majority" which explains why Draghi refused to take a vote as it would show that only Europe's B and C grade nations - such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, Estonia, Malta and Cyprus - were for a restart in debt monetization.
The Whole Scheme Could Fall Apart
There's a chorus of "economists" across the world who are also increasingly critical of negative yields. It's becoming a consensus. And it's about time! QE and negative rates haven't helped; they've hurt and caused damage to retirees, pension funds, insurance companies and most importantly the banking system (especially Europe).
So, we're one populist revolt in a single EU country like Italy or Greece leaving the EU that could begin a real bond rout. Or what if Germany left the EU? What if the ECB decides to abandon the QE effort now that there is consensus that it's actually crazy?
It’s mindboggling to think about the chain of events that could unfold. Greece recently priced some bonds with negative yields, which is clearly insane. If any EU country leaves, like Greece, their bond prices would drop 80% overnight to drive their yields to 5%, 6% or maybe 10% from -0.5%. The same effect if QE is suddenly disavowed, bond prices across the EU would drop very hard--like 40%. This would lead to huge losses in the rest of the world's bonds too!
The effect could include the instant bankruptcy of nearly all EU banks whose effects would spread to the US and World. The ECB itself would be understood to be technically bankrupt. Bank runs could easily erupt since depositors are at risk in the EU in the event of a bank bankruptcy. A flood of money to the US would ensue. The dollar would rocket higher due to money fleeing Europe.
Remember, the world-wide bond market is valued at least $110 Trillion and the world's stock markets are "worth" some $40 Trillion. Losses in a combined stock and bond rout could be something like 70% or $110 Trillion wiped-out in a very short period. $110 Trillion in fiat money would go to "money heaven."
Then, for the real disaster, there is a real possibility that once the bond rout gets going, you’ll wake up one morning and the stock futures markets are halted limit down! And then stock markets stay limit down for days or weeks and don’t or can’t re-open! When they reopen, they are down 80%. This is not an insane concept. The entire worldwide Central Bank bubble can get wiped-out within months. Scary stuff!
This is how “excess” money goes “poof”. And, in our fiat world, far too much money/credit has been created and will likely go “poof." The world would be instantly be plunged into a deep depression especially with Central Banks understood to be bankrupt.
I warned a friend recently that it’s dangerous and there could be a violent reversal.
Then, in recent weeks, the ECB reverted to more QE to keep the game going. But surprisingly, there has been a chorus of people who, stating the obvious, roundly criticized the decision both on the ECB's monetary committee and in the media that the negative rates are killing the banks and the financial system. This dissent is new. But Draghi did it anyway despite the criticism on his own committee. He didn't even allow the committee to vote!
 |
| The Important EU Countries Are Now Against QE and Negative Rates!! |
The Whole Scheme Could Fall Apart
There's a chorus of "economists" across the world who are also increasingly critical of negative yields. It's becoming a consensus. And it's about time! QE and negative rates haven't helped; they've hurt and caused damage to retirees, pension funds, insurance companies and most importantly the banking system (especially Europe).
So, we're one populist revolt in a single EU country like Italy or Greece leaving the EU that could begin a real bond rout. Or what if Germany left the EU? What if the ECB decides to abandon the QE effort now that there is consensus that it's actually crazy?
It’s mindboggling to think about the chain of events that could unfold. Greece recently priced some bonds with negative yields, which is clearly insane. If any EU country leaves, like Greece, their bond prices would drop 80% overnight to drive their yields to 5%, 6% or maybe 10% from -0.5%. The same effect if QE is suddenly disavowed, bond prices across the EU would drop very hard--like 40%. This would lead to huge losses in the rest of the world's bonds too!
The effect could include the instant bankruptcy of nearly all EU banks whose effects would spread to the US and World. The ECB itself would be understood to be technically bankrupt. Bank runs could easily erupt since depositors are at risk in the EU in the event of a bank bankruptcy. A flood of money to the US would ensue. The dollar would rocket higher due to money fleeing Europe.
Remember, the world-wide bond market is valued at least $110 Trillion and the world's stock markets are "worth" some $40 Trillion. Losses in a combined stock and bond rout could be something like 70% or $110 Trillion wiped-out in a very short period. $110 Trillion in fiat money would go to "money heaven."
Then, for the real disaster, there is a real possibility that once the bond rout gets going, you’ll wake up one morning and the stock futures markets are halted limit down! And then stock markets stay limit down for days or weeks and don’t or can’t re-open! When they reopen, they are down 80%. This is not an insane concept. The entire worldwide Central Bank bubble can get wiped-out within months. Scary stuff!
This is how “excess” money goes “poof”. And, in our fiat world, far too much money/credit has been created and will likely go “poof." The world would be instantly be plunged into a deep depression especially with Central Banks understood to be bankrupt.
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
50 Years of Failed Climate Apocalypse Predictions
Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today. None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.
What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.
More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.
While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.
What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.
More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.
While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.
Here is the source for numbers 1-27. As you will see, the individual sources are not crackpots, but scientific studies and media reports on “expert” predictions. The sources for numbers 28-41 are linked individually.
- 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
- 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
- 1970: Ice Age By 2000
- 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
- 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
- 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
- 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
- 1974: Another Ice Age?
- 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
- 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
- 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes
- 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend
- 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
- 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
- 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
- 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
- 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
- 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
- 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
- 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
- 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
- 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
- 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
- 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
- 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
- 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
- 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
- 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
- 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
- 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
- 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
- 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s
- 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
- 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
- 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
- 2006: Super Hurricanes!
- 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
- 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
- 1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
- 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
- 1970s: Killer Bees!
1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
1969: ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989.’
1970: Ice age by 2000
1970: ‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’
1971: ‘New Ice Age Coming’
1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’
Source: The Guardian, January 29, 1974
1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’
Source: TIME, June 24, 1974
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life’
But no such ‘great peril to life’ has been observed as the so-called ‘ozone hole’ remains:
Sources: Headline
NASA Data | Graph
1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life’
Sources: Headline
NASA Data | Graph
READ MORE BY CLICKING BELOW
Monday, October 7, 2019
Everything the Press Gets Wrong about the Ukraine Call
Posted By Scott Adams on September 27, 2019
Here’s a question you haven’t heard anyone ask about the Ukraine phone call story: If the Biden family never existed, would it have still been a good idea for President Trump to put a hold on funds already approved by Congress for Ukraine until the leaders spoke?
Answer: Yes.
The citizens who voted for Trump knew what they were getting. He promised to be a tough negotiator with our allies and adversaries alike. So what would a competent negotiator do when dealing with a new leader — of any country — before their first conversation? If he’s smart, he would “set the table” as Trump sometimes says about negotiating. In other words, you don’t start the conversation with someone important until you have arranged as many variables as you can in your favor. In the Ukraine phone call situation, President Trump effectively transferred power from Congress to himself in terms of “approving” Ukraine’s funds. Then he took a phone call with the new President of Ukraine.
That was perfect negotiating form.
We give our presidents a lot of flexibility in dealing with foreign affairs because it works better to have one “boss” in these situations. Had Trump permanently withheld funds approved by Congress, that would be a system problem on our end. But temporarily putting a hold on those funds before speaking leader-to-leader is just smart presidenting. It creates the impression that the president is the only American the foreign leader needs to deal with. That’s “setting the table.”
Does it matter exactly what Trump was going to discuss, negotiate, or request?
Nope. If the only thing Trump did on the phone call was congratulate President Zelensky on his election victory, it would still be smart to hold the funds until then. We want our president to go into every conversation with foreign leaders fully armed, persuasion-wise. When Trump brings the full weight of the office with him, it sets the table for the current conversations, and every one after that. When Trump withholds funds, pulls out of a deal, or otherwise transfers power from Congress to himself, it makes him a more effective negotiator. It puts him in charge. It is a strong psychological advantage.
Compare that approach to sending a president out weak, dependent on Congress to wipe his nose. Those are not similar table settings. Trump knows the difference. So does everyone who read his book, The Art of the The Deal.
We’ve heard Trump say he was concerned about corruption in Ukraine, and that was why he put a hold on the funds. I’m sure that was at least a part of his concern. Probably every American has that same concern about foreign aid in general. But as I said, it doesn’t matter what reason he gives the American public. Regardless of corruption in Ukraine, it was still smart to withhold funds until after the leaders spoke, because it made Trump the only person Zelensky needs to satisfy. That’s what we want from our presidents. We want them going in strong, with the full weight of their office and influence, to every interaction with foreign leaders, every time.
But what about Trump asking Zelensky for help looking into Hunter Biden’s business dealings? Isn’t it inappropriate for a president of the United States to ask a foreign leader to help him win reelection? If that’s ALL it was, it would absolutely be inappropriate. But was that all it was?
Suppose a candidate for president of the United States is leading in all the polls and he has publicly known conflicts of interest with a foreign country, such that blackmail-like influence was a real risk. Or at least it looks that way on the surface. What kind of priority should a sitting president put on that situation?
Answer: Top priority Continued....
Here’s a question you haven’t heard anyone ask about the Ukraine phone call story: If the Biden family never existed, would it have still been a good idea for President Trump to put a hold on funds already approved by Congress for Ukraine until the leaders spoke?
Answer: Yes.
The citizens who voted for Trump knew what they were getting. He promised to be a tough negotiator with our allies and adversaries alike. So what would a competent negotiator do when dealing with a new leader — of any country — before their first conversation? If he’s smart, he would “set the table” as Trump sometimes says about negotiating. In other words, you don’t start the conversation with someone important until you have arranged as many variables as you can in your favor. In the Ukraine phone call situation, President Trump effectively transferred power from Congress to himself in terms of “approving” Ukraine’s funds. Then he took a phone call with the new President of Ukraine.
That was perfect negotiating form.
We give our presidents a lot of flexibility in dealing with foreign affairs because it works better to have one “boss” in these situations. Had Trump permanently withheld funds approved by Congress, that would be a system problem on our end. But temporarily putting a hold on those funds before speaking leader-to-leader is just smart presidenting. It creates the impression that the president is the only American the foreign leader needs to deal with. That’s “setting the table.”
Does it matter exactly what Trump was going to discuss, negotiate, or request?
Nope. If the only thing Trump did on the phone call was congratulate President Zelensky on his election victory, it would still be smart to hold the funds until then. We want our president to go into every conversation with foreign leaders fully armed, persuasion-wise. When Trump brings the full weight of the office with him, it sets the table for the current conversations, and every one after that. When Trump withholds funds, pulls out of a deal, or otherwise transfers power from Congress to himself, it makes him a more effective negotiator. It puts him in charge. It is a strong psychological advantage.
Compare that approach to sending a president out weak, dependent on Congress to wipe his nose. Those are not similar table settings. Trump knows the difference. So does everyone who read his book, The Art of the The Deal.
We’ve heard Trump say he was concerned about corruption in Ukraine, and that was why he put a hold on the funds. I’m sure that was at least a part of his concern. Probably every American has that same concern about foreign aid in general. But as I said, it doesn’t matter what reason he gives the American public. Regardless of corruption in Ukraine, it was still smart to withhold funds until after the leaders spoke, because it made Trump the only person Zelensky needs to satisfy. That’s what we want from our presidents. We want them going in strong, with the full weight of their office and influence, to every interaction with foreign leaders, every time.
But what about Trump asking Zelensky for help looking into Hunter Biden’s business dealings? Isn’t it inappropriate for a president of the United States to ask a foreign leader to help him win reelection? If that’s ALL it was, it would absolutely be inappropriate. But was that all it was?
Suppose a candidate for president of the United States is leading in all the polls and he has publicly known conflicts of interest with a foreign country, such that blackmail-like influence was a real risk. Or at least it looks that way on the surface. What kind of priority should a sitting president put on that situation?
Answer: Top priority Continued....
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
Alinsky's How to Create a Socialist State
GNS Economics: The Path to Recession, Crisis and Global Depression
From GNSEconomics.com 12th September 2019:
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go even more deeply into debt. But will the increase in liquidity work this time around?Several arguments can be made indicating that the answer is “no”. It’s likely that this ‘liquidity pulse’ may provide a temporary boost to the markets, but not the real economy. This is an extremely hazardous combination.
The end of the cycle
As we explained in our June forecasts, the nascent economic downturn did not start as a result of trade issues, but rather from the diminution of massive Chinese debt-stimulus, which ran from around late 2015 till July 2017. This stimulus was conducted through the shadow-banking sector and especially through the local government financing vehicles, or “LGFVs”. During 2016, the size of the shadow banking sector tripled.
Funds from the shadow-banking sector were directed towards infrastructure investments and housing, supporting both the Ponzified Chinese economy and its related housing bubble. The effect of this debt-binge is clearly visible in a sharp rise in the Chinese leading economic indicator from late 2015 through the summer of 2017 followed by a rise in the indicators of other countries (see Figure 1). In essence, China pulled the world economy back from the brink of recession.
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| Figure 1. The amplitude adjusted composite leading indicator of the OECD for China, Germany, euro area and the United States. Source: GnS Economics, OECD |
 |
| Figure 2. The growth of total factor productivity in China. Source: GnS Economics, Conference Board |
Early this year, Chinese leaders again panicked and started to push more debt into the economy. During H1, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 5.8 percentage points to 249.5 percent after falling for most of 2018.
What is notable is that, unlike in 2015/2016 when the economy quickly responded to the stimulus, the rebound has been lacklustre this time around. The combination of fiscal, credit and monetary stimulus early this year produced only mediocre growth of 6.2 percent in Q2, the slowest since 1992, and private data implies that the economic situation is worse that the official figures show.
China seems to have reached the point where a moderate (normal) stimulus does not support the real economy anymore, and a flat-out debt-binge, á la 2015/2016, would flare up a debt crisis. This, quite simply, means that the global business cycle is at its end.
Central planning, squared
Throughout this cycle, central planners have tried to postpone the downturn by all possible means. This marks the current expansion as the most manipulated business cycle, ever. This is actually rather understandable if one considers that the fate of the global banking system, the Eurozone, the legitimacy of Communist Party of China and even the very existence of central banks themselves possibly hangs in the balance.
Now, with the lead of the ECB and the Fed, central banks are again attempting to provide more stimulus. In their desperation, they are trying to wrestle the global economy back to growth with more easing. But they overlook that:
The third is the most crucial one. The European banking sector is especially unlikely to survive deeper negative rates, as several major European bank chiefs made a very clear in their recent extraordinary public communiques. We also already know that the asset purchase programs (“QEs”) increase the fragility in the banking system.
Central banks are undermining the foundations of the economy with more stimulus, especially in Europe. The ”open-ended” QE of the ECB will keep eroding financial stability in the Eurozone and the ”two-tier” system is unlikely to fix the profitability issues of banks. One might argue that the ECB is, in effect, demolishing Europe with its “bazooka”.
Throughout this cycle, central planners have tried to postpone the downturn by all possible means. This marks the current expansion as the most manipulated business cycle, ever. This is actually rather understandable if one considers that the fate of the global banking system, the Eurozone, the legitimacy of Communist Party of China and even the very existence of central banks themselves possibly hangs in the balance.
Now, with the lead of the ECB and the Fed, central banks are again attempting to provide more stimulus. In their desperation, they are trying to wrestle the global economy back to growth with more easing. But they overlook that:
- China has been driving this cycle, and its economy is stagnating.
- The world is already “drowning” in debt.
- Unconventional methods, like negative interest rates, are wreaking havoc in the banking sector and the real economy.
The third is the most crucial one. The European banking sector is especially unlikely to survive deeper negative rates, as several major European bank chiefs made a very clear in their recent extraordinary public communiques. We also already know that the asset purchase programs (“QEs”) increase the fragility in the banking system.
Central banks are undermining the foundations of the economy with more stimulus, especially in Europe. The ”open-ended” QE of the ECB will keep eroding financial stability in the Eurozone and the ”two-tier” system is unlikely to fix the profitability issues of banks. One might argue that the ECB is, in effect, demolishing Europe with its “bazooka”.
Recession, and the crisis, are coming
The re-escalation of the trade war since May has deadened corporate sentiment across the globe. Therefore, it has acted as an accelerator for the downturn, and even if trade disputes can be settled quickly, which is unlikely, the damage may already have been done. Moreover, as we have contended for over two years, the real issues behind the global slowdown are more malevolent than simple trade disputes.
The ‘unconventional means’ of central banks have, quite simply, sabotaged the engine that drives economic growth, while massive and increasingly-unproductive debt stimulus by China has hollowed-out the global economy. If China and central banks manage to resuscitate the asset markets, but not the real economy, which is unfortunately quite probable, the end-result cannot be anything less than a crash, as in 1929.
Thus, while additional stimulus may provide some relief or even short-term euphoria for the markets, it will only be a mirage, a “Bull Trap”. After a brief uptick, the global economy will continue to sink, until the fragile European banking system breaks and global stock markets and economy follow. And then, collapse.
The re-escalation of the trade war since May has deadened corporate sentiment across the globe. Therefore, it has acted as an accelerator for the downturn, and even if trade disputes can be settled quickly, which is unlikely, the damage may already have been done. Moreover, as we have contended for over two years, the real issues behind the global slowdown are more malevolent than simple trade disputes.
The ‘unconventional means’ of central banks have, quite simply, sabotaged the engine that drives economic growth, while massive and increasingly-unproductive debt stimulus by China has hollowed-out the global economy. If China and central banks manage to resuscitate the asset markets, but not the real economy, which is unfortunately quite probable, the end-result cannot be anything less than a crash, as in 1929.
Thus, while additional stimulus may provide some relief or even short-term euphoria for the markets, it will only be a mirage, a “Bull Trap”. After a brief uptick, the global economy will continue to sink, until the fragile European banking system breaks and global stock markets and economy follow. And then, collapse.
Saturday, September 28, 2019
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Kunstler: The Odor Of Democrat Desperation
This comes at the instigation of Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson, who was formerly senior legal counsel to John Carlin head of the National Security Division of the Department of Justice, deeply implicated in the FISA court matters of 2016 under investigation by federal prosecutor John Durham. Mr. Atkinson cited a complaint by an unnamed whistleblower who claims to have heard from a source that the President offered a quid pro quo to Ukrainian President Zelensky for reopening the Burisma case. The “whistleblower” may be Mr. Atkinson himself.
Of course, gaffe-prone Joe Biden spilled the beans on video earlier this year, when he bragged about shaking down Ukraine’s then-president Petro Poroshenko over a billion-dollar loan guarantee unless he fired the prosecutor investigating Burisma, which he did. Is there any ambiguity here?
The coordination between the news media and the Deep State is impressively blatant in this new gambit, with former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe (dismissed for cause in 2018), in his new position as a CNN “contributor” (while awaiting prosecution) teeing up a new “Trump collusion” narrative with The New York Times, WashPost, and NBC marching in step. In this new age of disinformation, narratives are the political weapon of choice in the campaign to harass and disable the winner of the 2016 election. The big play of RussiaGate failed, the play of “racism” is failing, so UkraineGate is next up.
It’s also obviously an effort to reenergize the impeachment operation in congress, badly botched so far by Jerold Nadler’s House Judiciary Committee. But it’s hard to imagine a better entertainment than an impeachment of Donald Trump in congress. Unless the Deep State wants to throw former President Obama under the bus, along with dozens of his associates (including Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Biden), they might be advised to call off that circus. A trial in the Senate, where the GOP runs the proceedings, would be an even better table-turner than the rousing climax of Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
I have a new theory about where the 2020 election is heading: if the Democratic Party candidate happens to lose, the party’s lawyers will unleash a blizzard of litigation in every voting district where the outcome was a couple of thousand ballots against them. It will be the 2000 “hanging chad” fracas on steroids and they will go so far as render the election inconclusive, therefore provoking the most parlous constitutional crisis since the start of the Civil War. In other words, they will dare to disable the republic.
Something or somebody will have to put a stop to these seditious turpitudes. The machinery of the law must be turned on the “resistance” and its operatives in the Deep State. Mr. Barr has the opportunity to do that. A globe of silence has enclosed his doings for many months. Impatient observers jump to the conclusion that the silence means he is doing nothing. I am not so sure of that. Given the purposeful hysteria ginned up so dishonestly in the press — and so injuriously to the actual public interest — don’t you suppose he would want to avoid tossing dynamite into that dumpster fire? By the same token, those actively stoking the dumpster fire are revealing their utter desperation. The unexpected consequence will be the suicide of the Democratic Party. But then people don’t necessarily get what they expect, they get what they deserve.
It’s also obviously an effort to reenergize the impeachment operation in congress, badly botched so far by Jerold Nadler’s House Judiciary Committee. But it’s hard to imagine a better entertainment than an impeachment of Donald Trump in congress. Unless the Deep State wants to throw former President Obama under the bus, along with dozens of his associates (including Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Biden), they might be advised to call off that circus. A trial in the Senate, where the GOP runs the proceedings, would be an even better table-turner than the rousing climax of Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
I have a new theory about where the 2020 election is heading: if the Democratic Party candidate happens to lose, the party’s lawyers will unleash a blizzard of litigation in every voting district where the outcome was a couple of thousand ballots against them. It will be the 2000 “hanging chad” fracas on steroids and they will go so far as render the election inconclusive, therefore provoking the most parlous constitutional crisis since the start of the Civil War. In other words, they will dare to disable the republic.
Something or somebody will have to put a stop to these seditious turpitudes. The machinery of the law must be turned on the “resistance” and its operatives in the Deep State. Mr. Barr has the opportunity to do that. A globe of silence has enclosed his doings for many months. Impatient observers jump to the conclusion that the silence means he is doing nothing. I am not so sure of that. Given the purposeful hysteria ginned up so dishonestly in the press — and so injuriously to the actual public interest — don’t you suppose he would want to avoid tossing dynamite into that dumpster fire? By the same token, those actively stoking the dumpster fire are revealing their utter desperation. The unexpected consequence will be the suicide of the Democratic Party. But then people don’t necessarily get what they expect, they get what they deserve.
Sunday, September 15, 2019
Hong Kong Local Explains What is Happening There
HK now is a classic example of the ever increasing power of the oligarchy (mostly property tycoons) and the ever increasing power of the State (or perhaps forceful state as its slowly morphing into) colluding for today at the expense of tomorrow.
The oligarchy – top local tycoons and legislators – were called to a meeting in Shenzhen – where they were pressed upon by the communist party to distance themselves from, and indeed condemn, the protests. This was on news sites…so they’re not even pretending there……
In truth, the extradition bill is just the last straw in a 20+ year of corrosion of the laws and autonomy that enabled Hong Kong to advance into a world class post-industrial connected economy.
From another local, a Tom Yam:
Communists do not know how to make money….They are brilliant, and quite ruthless at taking your money…..
The oligarchy – top local tycoons and legislators – were called to a meeting in Shenzhen – where they were pressed upon by the communist party to distance themselves from, and indeed condemn, the protests. This was on news sites…so they’re not even pretending there……
In truth, the extradition bill is just the last straw in a 20+ year of corrosion of the laws and autonomy that enabled Hong Kong to advance into a world class post-industrial connected economy.
From another local, a Tom Yam:
“Many young people feel they have no future. They see the economy controlled by a cartel of tycoons in collusion with the government. They see the hypocrisy of the pro-Beijing establishment. Government officials urge them to go study and work on the mainland, while sending their own offspring to the West. Affluent owners of second passports and second homes in Western democracies tell them to be patriotic and accept creeping authoritarianism.
Worse, they see no chance of change for the better. The chief executive is not accountable to the citizens of Hong Kong. She answers to the Chinese Communist Party leaders who anointed her;
Meanwhile, the legislature rubber-stamps colossal and unnecessary infrastructure schemes like the HK$1 trillion (US$128 billion ) Lantau reclamation project, which will transfer Hong Kong’s fiscal reserves to mainland companies bound to secure most of the construction contracts. Youngsters understand opportunity cost: That money won’t be spent to improve housing and healthcare for Hong Kong people."Welcome to China under Xi Jin Ping…..who wants to take China back to the future …to the ‘glorious era of Qin Shi Huangdi, the First emperor who started construction of the great wall’….
Communists do not know how to make money….They are brilliant, and quite ruthless at taking your money…..
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Kamala's Medicare For All: the March to Government Tyranny
What Kamala, Bernie and the rest of the shit-for-brain Democrats really want when they say Medicare for All, is that they want to make our medical system into the troubled VA System-for-all.
You see, the VA is truly socialized medicine in this country, meaning the government owns and operates these hospitals and all of the doctors, nurses and staff are government employees. And as with Socialized 'anything,' veterans are forced to use these facilities whether they like it or not.
Secret Waiting Lists and Higher Infection Rates Killing Veterans
But shit-for-brain Democrats are counting on you to forget all the horror stories of secret VA death panels causing loss of life in many of those facilities. Whistleblowers revealed in 2014 that some 9 Veterans Administration hospitals have 'secret' waiting lists that have resulted in some 167 deaths that we know of so far. And that's in addition to the deaths caused by higher rates of infection due unsanitary conditions and poor maintenance due to poor management. (Imagine that, poor management in a government-run program! Who would have thunk it?) But this is what happens when the government tries to run a healthcare business (or anything else).
Massive and Inflating Costs With Declining Quality of Care
Then are the outrageous and out-of-control costs. More and more money is being spent per patient, so lack of money is not the problem. A USA Today article detailed how VA hospital costs are exploding relative to the private sector and Medicare. The article also shows that it's not the cost of treatment of Afghanistan or Iraq war veterans either -- their treatment is cheaper. Those vets represent only 7% of the patients and only 4% of the cost. Also, the number of veterans has been decreasing for over a decade too.
It should be crystal clear that the result of socialized medicine is substandard (or even deadly) care and poor cost performance. And it's the same chronic financial and performance failures that you see from any government program, ie., the US Post Office, Amtrak, the Dept of Defense, etc., etc.
Then Come the Denials From "Officials"
But this is just the beginning. After the death panels and deadly delayed treatment scandal erupts, then, characteristically, come the denials from the Obama administration. Obama exclaimed "We read it in the newspaper!" But there is an email trail that proves that Biden/Obama did know about this since their transition in 2008. This country spends $160 billion per year on veteran's health care but we find out that they are killing our veterans due to delays in treatment.
Then Massive Retaliation Against Whistleblowers
Then comes the hammer down on any whistleblower or patient who exposes fraud or malfeasance. The weight and unlimited resources of the government then tries to strike down the whistleblowers despite their so-called "protection." The Government simply cannot be trusted:
You see, the VA is truly socialized medicine in this country, meaning the government owns and operates these hospitals and all of the doctors, nurses and staff are government employees. And as with Socialized 'anything,' veterans are forced to use these facilities whether they like it or not.
Secret Waiting Lists and Higher Infection Rates Killing Veterans
But shit-for-brain Democrats are counting on you to forget all the horror stories of secret VA death panels causing loss of life in many of those facilities. Whistleblowers revealed in 2014 that some 9 Veterans Administration hospitals have 'secret' waiting lists that have resulted in some 167 deaths that we know of so far. And that's in addition to the deaths caused by higher rates of infection due unsanitary conditions and poor maintenance due to poor management. (Imagine that, poor management in a government-run program! Who would have thunk it?) But this is what happens when the government tries to run a healthcare business (or anything else).
Massive and Inflating Costs With Declining Quality of Care
It should be crystal clear that the result of socialized medicine is substandard (or even deadly) care and poor cost performance. And it's the same chronic financial and performance failures that you see from any government program, ie., the US Post Office, Amtrak, the Dept of Defense, etc., etc.
Then Come the Denials From "Officials"
But this is just the beginning. After the death panels and deadly delayed treatment scandal erupts, then, characteristically, come the denials from the Obama administration. Obama exclaimed "We read it in the newspaper!" But there is an email trail that proves that Biden/Obama did know about this since their transition in 2008. This country spends $160 billion per year on veteran's health care but we find out that they are killing our veterans due to delays in treatment.
Then Massive Retaliation Against Whistleblowers
Then comes the hammer down on any whistleblower or patient who exposes fraud or malfeasance. The weight and unlimited resources of the government then tries to strike down the whistleblowers despite their so-called "protection." The Government simply cannot be trusted:
- Victims say VA whistleblower retaliation is growing
- VA Hospital Whistleblower Claims Double Since Phoenix VA Scandal
- Culture of retaliation still prevalent at VA
- For VA Whistleblowers, A Culture Of Fear And Retaliation
- Whistleblowers Claim Retaliation for Revealing VA Horrors
- VA retaliated against Atlanta whistleblower who questioned spending
- Cops Allege Corruption, Retaliation At The VA
- Federal agency receives dozens of retaliation reports from whistleblowers in VA scandal
- At Vermont VA hospital, swirling accusations of harassment, retaliation, negligence
- VA Whistleblower Resigns, Citing Retaliation
- 'Vets continue to die': Phoenix hospital at center of VA scandal ranked among nation's worst
- Drugs, corruption go unpunished in Mississippi VA center
- VA whistleblowers, punished for revealing excessive opiate use and infestation, are finally exonerated
- Nurse exposes VA hospital: Stolen drugs, tortured veterans
To pay for Medicare for all, taxes must rise to punitive levels. This leads to even more fraud, waste and chicanery at the government, but leaves the population unable to save for retirement. This is happening all over Europe and even Canada. It renders the population completely dependent on the government for not only substandard and more deadly medical treatment but also it leads to the population utterly dependent on the government for retirement benefits (if they are available at all!)
Let's recap: 1) Government-run medicine is a cost disaster, 2) Government-run medicine is a disaster of corruption, higher death rates due to poor management, uncleanliness and "waiting lists" and/or "death panels," 3) If you complain, you're hounded or persecuted by the bureaucracy. The bureaucrats never get fired, and 4) YOU HAVE NO CHOICE! Furthermore, 5) much higher and ever-increasing taxes to pay for this crap will leave most people unable to save for retirement. Then most people will be completely dependent on the government for medical care AND retirement money (IF it's available at all!).
The end result is complete and a lifetime of dependence on the government from cradle to grave with no way out! And if you don't like it, you might be committed to a psychiatric ward. Remember in totalitarian systems, if you don't love their wonderful system, you must be crazy!
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