Like most things in government, the Income Tax Act was "sold" on phony premises. In 1913, the standard deduction was about $75,000 in today's prices and the 1% income tax covered incomes over $75,000 up to $500,000 (in today's dollars). Obviously, the vast majority of people did not pay any income tax at all. The top rate was 7% on income over $12.5 million in today's dollars. Just four years later, income tax rates went to 70% to fund WWI and stayed that way until JFK and then a bit lower under Reagan! Ah, you gotta admire government "mission creep."
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve was created to maintain "price stability" (and "economic growth.") But consumer prices went up 110% from 1913 to 1921 alone! Their failures continue today as I detail below.
Unbridled government growth and debt really started with WWII but even then, in the aftermath of the 2nd World War, the US Government spending returned to only 11% of the economy in 1950. But government growth and debt escalated very rapidly after 1971 with Nixon's abandonment of a gold standard.
From my February 2018 post Extremes in Unsound Money and Unsound Will Lead to Catastrophe, I said that: "In 1970, US debt was $275 Billion. It took 188 years to achieve that. This past week alone, the government sold $258 billion!" That was in Feb. 2018. For comparison, US debt has exploded by $3 or $4 Trillion in just the past 3 months alone to the end of May 2020. Debt (money) growth is going exponential!
In 1971, Nixon ended the Post WWII Bretton Woods arrangement which ended any semblance of (gold-backed) sound money. As an immediate result, our national debt and inflation began to skyrocket. Government debt led to chronic budget deficits which creates chronic trade deficits, which then requires even more government spending and lower interest rates to keep the economy going.
Thanks to the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, the big banks have once again become highly risky hedge funds using your money and central bank deposits to gamble on highly leveraged positions in risky positions (again). They act with impunity since they have the government's backing when they fail again.
The rapid rise of the government monstrosity since 1971 has led to massive corruption of government-itself, the rise of government-sponsored monopolies/oligopolies in the military-industrial complex (the perpetual war machine), the ever-expanding financial industry, the drug industry, the healthcare industry and others, along with the corruption of finance, extreme distortion of our economy, debasement of our money and causing extremes of wealth inequality .
The rise of the Eurodollar market sprung up at European banks and provided (even more) massive liquidity to the world from the late 1980s to 2008. Bankers used an accounting trick to hide their increased leverage (in order to avoid bank capital restrictions). Eurodollars played a big role in the explosion of the housing mortagage market leading up to 2008. After 2008, when the world had a financial near-death experience as derivatives failed, banks teetered and markets failed. The world economy and trade come to a sudden stop as 'finance' failed (briefly). Obviously the acute crisis was overcome by government actions of more money and debt. More debt was the solution to too much debt. The Eurodollar market came back but began faltering again by 2011.
Today, we are now in the 2nd Great Financial Crisis; the third bust in a series of bubbles and busts spawned by government and the central bank(s) since year 2000. The recovery after each bubble bust has become more and more anemic.
The big risk is that, if finance fails then everything else fails and millions, even billions, of people may die as world supply chains collapse, commerce halts, shortages develop, grocery store shelves empty and people begin starving. In the worst case, infrastructure fails-- possibly including even electricity and utilities which will lead to nationalization of utilities and domestic energy. A FULL STOP of world-wide commerce occurred in late 2008 when the international banking system seized-up. It could happen again for much longer.
Eventually there will be an epic failure of the markets, finance, the economy and possibly a loss of civilization itself manifested by monetary disorder and failures, societal disorder, chaotic internal unrest and probably war on the international level. In short, more extremes caused by central banks and governments.
Charles Hughes Smith's words ring very true:
1971: The Beginning of the End--Massive Monetary Disorder (Feb 2020)
"...in 1971, Nixon ended this monetary arrangement which ended gold-backed money. It was done at that time to enable the government to run deficits to fund the Viet Nam war without raising taxes to pay for it. As an immediate result, the US dollar plunged in value and our national debt and inflation began to skyrocket. A falling dollar soon caused the oil exporting countries to sharply raise oil prices in 1974 igniting a budgetary and inflationary spiral.
Then came decades of huge, unsustainable global imbalances in trade and debt, inflation, falling living standards, inequality, monetary disorder, instability, the rise of China, the Petro-dollar, endless wars, the massive military-industrial complex, a leviathan surveillance state, mega corporate monopolies, massive US government growth, government malfeasance and corruption, national de-industrialization, wealth inequality, the Eurodollar rise and fall, widespread US intervention and manipulation in nearly every global nation -- continuing to the present day. All fueled by easy (unsound) money and out-of-control spending."
Central banks, created to be a lender of last resort in panics, and were charged to control inflation. Now, central bankers are thoroughly dedicated to creating it! And what's worse, inflation is already raging and they don't see it!! These people should be tarred and feathered and run out of town. Personally, I prefer public executions.
The size, cost and ineffectiveness of government has ballooned beyond belief. All of this has led to increasingly unstable business cycles and financial instability, wealth inequalities which favor those who hold securities (the top 10% hold the vast majority of securities such as stocks and real estate), huge and chronic trade deficits and intractable international financial imbalances. Debt, deficits, financial and real inflation, repeated bubbles and the resulting instability (burst bubbles) and deep recessions have serially eroded our economy and culture. The result, in part, is that our society, our culture, our civic order, our work ethic, our moral bearings have all decayed and diminished. Our social contract has also been torn asunder."
We're Reaching the End of the Road (Sept 2016)
"Unsound money ("fiat" money not backed by gold) has led, in recent decades, to huge and unsustainable global imbalances in trade and debt. But because trade deficits REDUCE our nation's GDP, persistent trade deficits in our country have led to rising debt at every level as we try to maintain the "appearance" of a rising standard of living. This is partly why the US ran $10 Trillion in government deficits in the past 10 years alone. Can you imagine what our economy would have looked like without all that money? It would have been outright Depression. (I'm not even going to mention the $4T bank reserve creation by the Federal Reserve). All of that debt is masking depression.
World trade is flat-lining or declining because the non-elite US and Western consumers can't afford the imports. Trump is right about trade. He's right that our economy is hollowed-out by the loss of manufacturing jobs and it has killed jobs and hurt our people. Now the US consumer is tapped-out. Furthermore, demographic trends have turned negative in most of the West and China just like Harry Dent predicted long ago and have slowed the economy.
The persistent budget and trade imbalances over the past several decades could never have happened with "sound" money, as the deficit nation would have seen a loss of gold (money) that would have slowed the economy and reduced imports to a balance with exports. And debt creation would have been severely limited since new money would have to be backed by gold-- and gold is limited. Exchange rates would have been very stable too. That is the beauty of the gold standard. It's also why it rarely lasts."
European Banks and the Euro Will Destroy the World (April 2020)
Our Broken Social Contract? (Sept 2013)
Charles Hughes Smith's words ring very true:
We are living the Founders' nightmare, for America is corrupt to the core. While everyone gorging at the public trough bleats about the "common good," their single-minded focus is on aggrandizing as much power and private wealth as possible, and feeding their corrupt crew of insiders, lobbyists, "business interests," bankers and assorted other legalized looters.
America has plenty of law enforcement, prosecutors and prison cells for those who loot a Whole Foods, but none for those who loot the public treasury, commit stock market swindles or financial fraud on a monumental scale. Not only did no one go to prison for the rampant institutionalized fraud of the 2008 looting, a.k.a. the Global Financial Meltdown--the looters were bailed out by the Federal Reserve and Treasury.
More recently, no one was even questioned when a biotech company Moderna issued a press release about a Covid-19 vaccine trial that boosted the stock's price just long enough for insiders to dump millions of dollars of shares on a credulous public and also sell new shares in the company at a premium: a classic looting strategy known as pump and dump.
Members of Congress were caught red-handed in what amounted to insider trading, selling millions of dollars in their stock portfolios based on their secret briefings of the coming pandemic, while they reassured the public Covid-19 was no biggie. The farcical "investigation" found no wrong-doing.
Corruption in our political parties is so endemic nobody even bothers listing it except as a parlor game of pondering which party is more corrupt.
Our ruling elites, devoid of leadership, are little more than the scum of self-interested, greedy grifters who rose to the top of America's foul-smelling stew of corruption. As for the nation's infinitely greedy billionaires, if there was any justice left in America, Apple CEO Tim Cook would be rotting in a cell on Devil's Island for buying back billions of dollars of Apple stock--buybacks were illegal not that long ago.
The cells next to his would be crowded with Big Pharma CEOs who advertised their products directly to consumers--also illegal not so long ago.
America is now a pay-to-play paradise of greed and corruption. The "public good" is a PR cover for legalized looting, much of which now depends on the Federal Reserve's free money for financiers, parasites and predators.
When we look back at the genius of Hamilton, Madison, et al., and Washington's obsession with ethics and promoting national unity, we are forced to weep for the pathetic, venal scum that passes for "leadership" in America today. The feedback loops the Founders designed to restrain the tyranny of corruption have all failed, as the biggest looters serve their interests under the guise of legality.
The Founders' weren't saints; they were flawed as are all humans, and like all humans, they were products of their era. But they did have a keen, abiding sense of the public good, and when they clashed over ideas about banking, the power of the presidency, etc., it was not for personal gain but for their vision of the common good.
If any of America's "leadership" over the past 30 years had an ounce of concern for the common good, why did they enable financialization and globalization to hollow out the nation's economy and social order? Why did they enable the frauds, skims, scams, cartels and monopolies that are the foundation of virtually every American billionaire's "we pay no taxes" empires of greed?
The tyranny of corruption thrives in an amoral cesspool of anything goes and winners take all.
In today's America, the tyranny of corruption has been so normalized that America's polarized populaces are blind to the profound corruption of their parties and institutions. As in the last days of the Western Roman Empire, the masses are made complicit with bread and circuses, mimicking their "leaders" debasement of the public good to feeding at the public trough.The following are links to some of my posts that I have done to document my understanding of the extremes of monetary/debt madness in this country, especially from 1971, and how it's corrupting society, and endangering our society, our culture, our country and the world. I've included some selected paragraphs from those posts in order to try to tell the tale of our ongoing march to an inevitable crisis.
The Big Picture Background
"...in 1971, Nixon ended this monetary arrangement which ended gold-backed money. It was done at that time to enable the government to run deficits to fund the Viet Nam war without raising taxes to pay for it. As an immediate result, the US dollar plunged in value and our national debt and inflation began to skyrocket. A falling dollar soon caused the oil exporting countries to sharply raise oil prices in 1974 igniting a budgetary and inflationary spiral.
Then came decades of huge, unsustainable global imbalances in trade and debt, inflation, falling living standards, inequality, monetary disorder, instability, the rise of China, the Petro-dollar, endless wars, the massive military-industrial complex, a leviathan surveillance state, mega corporate monopolies, massive US government growth, government malfeasance and corruption, national de-industrialization, wealth inequality, the Eurodollar rise and fall, widespread US intervention and manipulation in nearly every global nation -- continuing to the present day. All fueled by easy (unsound) money and out-of-control spending."
Extremes in Unsound Money and Finance Will Lead to Catastrophe (Feb 2018)
"The big banks have once again become highly risky hedge funds using your money to gamble with highly leveraged positions in risky derivatives (again) thanks to the repeal of Glass-Steagall. They act with impunity since they have the government's backing when they fail again. Just 10 years ago, the world had a financial near-death experience as derivatives failed, banks failed and markets failed. The world trade come to a halt as finance failed. And here we are again thanks to lobbying money and corrupted politicians.
"The big banks have once again become highly risky hedge funds using your money to gamble with highly leveraged positions in risky derivatives (again) thanks to the repeal of Glass-Steagall. They act with impunity since they have the government's backing when they fail again. Just 10 years ago, the world had a financial near-death experience as derivatives failed, banks failed and markets failed. The world trade come to a halt as finance failed. And here we are again thanks to lobbying money and corrupted politicians.
Central banks, created to be a lender of last resort in panics, and were charged to control inflation. Now, central bankers are thoroughly dedicated to creating it! And what's worse, inflation is already raging and they don't see it!! These people should be tarred and feathered and run out of town. Personally, I prefer public executions.
The size, cost and ineffectiveness of government has ballooned beyond belief. All of this has led to increasingly unstable business cycles and financial instability, wealth inequalities which favor those who hold securities (the top 10% hold the vast majority of securities such as stocks and real estate), huge and chronic trade deficits and intractable international financial imbalances. Debt, deficits, financial and real inflation, repeated bubbles and the resulting instability (burst bubbles) and deep recessions have serially eroded our economy and culture. The result, in part, is that our society, our culture, our civic order, our work ethic, our moral bearings have all decayed and diminished. Our social contract has also been torn asunder."
We're Reaching the End of the Road (Sept 2016)
"Unsound money ("fiat" money not backed by gold) has led, in recent decades, to huge and unsustainable global imbalances in trade and debt. But because trade deficits REDUCE our nation's GDP, persistent trade deficits in our country have led to rising debt at every level as we try to maintain the "appearance" of a rising standard of living. This is partly why the US ran $10 Trillion in government deficits in the past 10 years alone. Can you imagine what our economy would have looked like without all that money? It would have been outright Depression. (I'm not even going to mention the $4T bank reserve creation by the Federal Reserve). All of that debt is masking depression.
World trade is flat-lining or declining because the non-elite US and Western consumers can't afford the imports. Trump is right about trade. He's right that our economy is hollowed-out by the loss of manufacturing jobs and it has killed jobs and hurt our people. Now the US consumer is tapped-out. Furthermore, demographic trends have turned negative in most of the West and China just like Harry Dent predicted long ago and have slowed the economy.
The persistent budget and trade imbalances over the past several decades could never have happened with "sound" money, as the deficit nation would have seen a loss of gold (money) that would have slowed the economy and reduced imports to a balance with exports. And debt creation would have been severely limited since new money would have to be backed by gold-- and gold is limited. Exchange rates would have been very stable too. That is the beauty of the gold standard. It's also why it rarely lasts."
European Banks and the Euro Will Destroy the World (April 2020)
"Essentially all world trade uses the dollar as the core of virtually all international financial and trade transactions, the Eurodollar market therefore facilitates all of the trading and financial transactions for the international and emerging markets and China. Really, it's the "money" supply and lubricant for world trade.
The "Eurodollar" has developed in past decades as unregulated liquidity that exists on (and mostly off) the large bank balance sheets in Europe and the US. It's really a sort of a "trick" designed to allow banks to skirt regulator's capital requirements. And the regulators, including our Federal Reserve, remain oblivious of what's going on--even now.
The "Eurodollar,"includes all of it's derivatives. Parentheses around "eurodollar" means it's the aggregate of credit default swaps, interest rate swaps, currency forwards/swaps, repos/reverse repos and other derivatives used mainly to facilitate global and financial trade. "Eurodollars" are only backed by "balance sheet capacity" of the European banks. It's a huge "product" of EU banks and it's designed to bypass and skirt capital requirements set by the government. It'a a way that banks can improve profits through higher-than-permitted leverage.
But there are nearly no dollars backing these instruments. It's nearly pure leverage and very unstable in times of crisis -- as we found out in 2008. I'm confident that banks are now attempting to flee these markets again since we're in the Great Financial Crisis #2. But shrinking "Eurodollars" means a shrinking world economy. That's exactly what's happening.
"Eurodollar" liquidity is literally the antithesis of sound money. It's like "internet money." It's pure leverage with no real "backing" except faith in the money center banking system of Europe. But faith in the European banking system has been dropping for decades. If you didn't know better, you might assume that the EU has been TRYING to ruin their financial system. Major EU bank stock (equity) prices are at 30 and 40 year lows, indicating extreme lows of faith and high fear concerning these institutions. Fear is rising as indicated by rising LIBOR rates which are considerably higher than the largely irrelevant Fed Funds rate of 0 to .25%."
The Federal Reserve Destruction of our Nation: Making the Elites Richer and Destroying the Bottom 90% (May 2020)
The "Eurodollar" has developed in past decades as unregulated liquidity that exists on (and mostly off) the large bank balance sheets in Europe and the US. It's really a sort of a "trick" designed to allow banks to skirt regulator's capital requirements. And the regulators, including our Federal Reserve, remain oblivious of what's going on--even now.
The "Eurodollar,"includes all of it's derivatives. Parentheses around "eurodollar" means it's the aggregate of credit default swaps, interest rate swaps, currency forwards/swaps, repos/reverse repos and other derivatives used mainly to facilitate global and financial trade. "Eurodollars" are only backed by "balance sheet capacity" of the European banks. It's a huge "product" of EU banks and it's designed to bypass and skirt capital requirements set by the government. It'a a way that banks can improve profits through higher-than-permitted leverage.
But there are nearly no dollars backing these instruments. It's nearly pure leverage and very unstable in times of crisis -- as we found out in 2008. I'm confident that banks are now attempting to flee these markets again since we're in the Great Financial Crisis #2. But shrinking "Eurodollars" means a shrinking world economy. That's exactly what's happening.
"Eurodollar" liquidity is literally the antithesis of sound money. It's like "internet money." It's pure leverage with no real "backing" except faith in the money center banking system of Europe. But faith in the European banking system has been dropping for decades. If you didn't know better, you might assume that the EU has been TRYING to ruin their financial system. Major EU bank stock (equity) prices are at 30 and 40 year lows, indicating extreme lows of faith and high fear concerning these institutions. Fear is rising as indicated by rising LIBOR rates which are considerably higher than the largely irrelevant Fed Funds rate of 0 to .25%."
The Federal Reserve Destruction of our Nation: Making the Elites Richer and Destroying the Bottom 90% (May 2020)
"The Federal Reserve is seemingly is an ongoing mission to destroy the bottom 90%.; it's really how the Govt and quasi-Govt Fed. Reserve are destroying the entire country. We just haven't seen violent protesters with pitchforks, Molotov bombs and torches yet --- but it's eventually coming. (Side note: It's here!)
The one lesson that we have clearly learned since the 2008 “Great Financial Crisis,” is that monetary and fiscal policy interventions do not lead to increased levels of economic wealth or prosperity. What these programs have done, is act as a wealth transfer system from the bottom 90% to the top 10%."
The one lesson that we have clearly learned since the 2008 “Great Financial Crisis,” is that monetary and fiscal policy interventions do not lead to increased levels of economic wealth or prosperity. What these programs have done, is act as a wealth transfer system from the bottom 90% to the top 10%."
Time For A New American Revolution: Burn Down Our Bloated, Failing Central Planning Bureaucracy! (Dec 2015)
"Much of the Federal Government and Federal Reserve "central planning" bureaucracies should be largely burnt to the ground. There are so many failures and it is so expensive that they are threatening our Nation. The "Government" colossus is marching our once-great country to ruin. Anything the US Government touches turns to shit. How can anyone want more of it?? Dismantle it! Devolve power back to the States. Save our nation from financial and social ruin!"
"Much of the Federal Government and Federal Reserve "central planning" bureaucracies should be largely burnt to the ground. There are so many failures and it is so expensive that they are threatening our Nation. The "Government" colossus is marching our once-great country to ruin. Anything the US Government touches turns to shit. How can anyone want more of it?? Dismantle it! Devolve power back to the States. Save our nation from financial and social ruin!"
Is the US a Failed State? (Oct. 2017)
"You know we're becoming a 3rd World country when the politicians, the well-connected and the "elites" are immune from the rules that govern everyone else and where the politicians care not one bit about the good of the country but are only focused on their own benefits and agenda of personal gain. This is what happens in dramatically collapsed countries like Venezuela and Argentina. Now it's happening in our own country.
Before and after the election, Democrats have used extensive propaganda, fake polls, fake "dossiers," fake news and/or fake allegations by every "talking head" to get rid of Trump. Since the election, they put nearly all of their eggs in the "Russian Collusion" basket--trying to paint Trump as a traitor who used Russia influence to defeat Hillary. This despite no specific "smoking gun" allegations---only lies (propaganda) from Brennan, Clapper, Powers, Rice, Obama, Hillary, Comey and basically every Democrat. The Democrats demanded and got a special prosecutor to "investigate" their bullshit allegations, all to try to depose Trump.
None of these people care one iota about the welfare of this country or any of the largely helpful Trump agenda for which the PEOPLE voted. The truth is that they don't want any reform to improve the country!
But the whole thing has been a massive and phony charade. The entire Russia collusion allegation was based on a made-up "opposition research" called the Trump Dossier, which, when released, was immediately debunked as it contained obvious inaccuracies. The DNC and Hillary campaign paid $6 or $9 million for this pile of shit (which should prove once and for all that every one of these people should be nowhere near public office or public money!!) Then the hopelessly compromised (and criminal?) Comey used it as a basis to start this whole Russia witch hunt and start the extensive surveillance of the Trump campaign which led to the illegal unmasking of this surveillance by the lying Obama administration. The media went with this fake story too.
It gets worse and even more treasonous. Now we know that Hillary, the DNC and all of her allies in positions of power in the FBI and everywhere else, were the ones in fact colluding with Russians to sell strategic US uranium assets to the Russians for bribes. Then they all colluded to cover-up the whole thing.
Hillary, Obama, Comey, Robert Mueller, Rosenstein and the entire top echelon of the FBI and Obama administration were all part of or knowledgeable about this bribery scheme. Now these same scumbags, Rosenstein and Mueller, are leading this outrageous and treasonous effort to oust Trump?!"
"You know we're becoming a 3rd World country when the politicians, the well-connected and the "elites" are immune from the rules that govern everyone else and where the politicians care not one bit about the good of the country but are only focused on their own benefits and agenda of personal gain. This is what happens in dramatically collapsed countries like Venezuela and Argentina. Now it's happening in our own country.
Before and after the election, Democrats have used extensive propaganda, fake polls, fake "dossiers," fake news and/or fake allegations by every "talking head" to get rid of Trump. Since the election, they put nearly all of their eggs in the "Russian Collusion" basket--trying to paint Trump as a traitor who used Russia influence to defeat Hillary. This despite no specific "smoking gun" allegations---only lies (propaganda) from Brennan, Clapper, Powers, Rice, Obama, Hillary, Comey and basically every Democrat. The Democrats demanded and got a special prosecutor to "investigate" their bullshit allegations, all to try to depose Trump.
None of these people care one iota about the welfare of this country or any of the largely helpful Trump agenda for which the PEOPLE voted. The truth is that they don't want any reform to improve the country!
But the whole thing has been a massive and phony charade. The entire Russia collusion allegation was based on a made-up "opposition research" called the Trump Dossier, which, when released, was immediately debunked as it contained obvious inaccuracies. The DNC and Hillary campaign paid $6 or $9 million for this pile of shit (which should prove once and for all that every one of these people should be nowhere near public office or public money!!) Then the hopelessly compromised (and criminal?) Comey used it as a basis to start this whole Russia witch hunt and start the extensive surveillance of the Trump campaign which led to the illegal unmasking of this surveillance by the lying Obama administration. The media went with this fake story too.
It gets worse and even more treasonous. Now we know that Hillary, the DNC and all of her allies in positions of power in the FBI and everywhere else, were the ones in fact colluding with Russians to sell strategic US uranium assets to the Russians for bribes. Then they all colluded to cover-up the whole thing.
Hillary, Obama, Comey, Robert Mueller, Rosenstein and the entire top echelon of the FBI and Obama administration were all part of or knowledgeable about this bribery scheme. Now these same scumbags, Rosenstein and Mueller, are leading this outrageous and treasonous effort to oust Trump?!"
Why Our Economy is in Depression and Will Only Get Worse (Jan. 2018)
"I wrote a blog entitled "We're Reaching the End of the Road" where I laid-out a litany of reasons for why our economy is mired in prolonged recessionary conditions and why things won't be improving anytime soon. I mentioned poor demographics, the declining utility of debt, and the effects of reaching the limits of affordable resources, such as affordable oil, as some of the causes. All these are true and have caused Central Banks all over the world to "pump-up" the money supply to absurd levels, backstopped all markets to maintain desired "wealth effects"and governments have spent borrowed money like never seen before. These emergency measures have continued for 10 years. They are now trying to stop these emergency measures now, but it won't be possible to stop them for long.
Soon, it will become apparent that we're in recession without end; which resembles Depression in duration. It may not be a sharp downturn--since we never had a boom--just a generally slow "sinking" perhaps interrupted for a number of months by the Trump Tax Reform, for example. Think "Japan" for the past 20 years, for example. We're really becoming Japan. This "recession" will not end and emergency spending and "printing"will re-start. Government intervention will only increase. The recession won't end, but the governments may not allow markets to "correct." This is because market declines would worsen the economy and it likely won't be allowed. It's not being allowed even now.
Governments and captive Central Banks have already subverted markets, making them policy tools, by manipulating all of them: first and foremost the bond markets. Governments around the world have manipulated the "risk-free" interest rate (govt bond T-bills) to near zero and below. This itself manipulates all other asset prices. Central Banks have provided a "backstop" to the markets and investors know it. It's causing extreme bubble conditions that will continue. The "appearance" of prosperity must be maintained!"
"I wrote a blog entitled "We're Reaching the End of the Road" where I laid-out a litany of reasons for why our economy is mired in prolonged recessionary conditions and why things won't be improving anytime soon. I mentioned poor demographics, the declining utility of debt, and the effects of reaching the limits of affordable resources, such as affordable oil, as some of the causes. All these are true and have caused Central Banks all over the world to "pump-up" the money supply to absurd levels, backstopped all markets to maintain desired "wealth effects"and governments have spent borrowed money like never seen before. These emergency measures have continued for 10 years. They are now trying to stop these emergency measures now, but it won't be possible to stop them for long.
Soon, it will become apparent that we're in recession without end; which resembles Depression in duration. It may not be a sharp downturn--since we never had a boom--just a generally slow "sinking" perhaps interrupted for a number of months by the Trump Tax Reform, for example. Think "Japan" for the past 20 years, for example. We're really becoming Japan. This "recession" will not end and emergency spending and "printing"will re-start. Government intervention will only increase. The recession won't end, but the governments may not allow markets to "correct." This is because market declines would worsen the economy and it likely won't be allowed. It's not being allowed even now.
Governments and captive Central Banks have already subverted markets, making them policy tools, by manipulating all of them: first and foremost the bond markets. Governments around the world have manipulated the "risk-free" interest rate (govt bond T-bills) to near zero and below. This itself manipulates all other asset prices. Central Banks have provided a "backstop" to the markets and investors know it. It's causing extreme bubble conditions that will continue. The "appearance" of prosperity must be maintained!"
"The "social contract" in America is a two part agreement. The first part is where citizens agree to be governed and support a government for the enumerated Constitutional purposes of maintaining civil government, maintain the rule of law, level the playing field, maintain law and order, provide defense and postal service, etc. This is the 'consent of the governed.' The second part of the contract is that the government has an obligation to the citizens to promote and support the rule of law per the Constitution, keep the playing field level (no one above the law), to spend taxpayers resources wisely, and to function with a minimal corruption."
Start of Acute Instability: the Repo Crisis in Sept 2019
Rising Risk of Financial and Economic Chaos (Dec. 2019)
"It's possible that we will remember September 16, 2019 as the start of the next acute financial crisis. That day, the overnight rate for overnight inter-bank loans (Fed Funds) soared from the targeted 1.5 to 1.75% rate to 5% or so. It started with problems in the Repo markets that are used by non-banks like hedge funds and other banks for temporary liquidity. Repo distress spilled-over into Fed funds. But, since a sustained rise in Fed Funds rates would crash the financial system, the US Central Bank began an effort to flood the market with liquidity through Repos (very short term loans from overnight to 1 or 2 days to 42 days recently) to satisfy bank/non-bank demand. That Repo demand hasn't calmed down or declined since September, it's accelerated!
This means that the inter-banking transmission system was not working and was/is frozen-up. This is the very definition of a financial crisis. Why? Banks are not lending to other banks possibly because of the counter-party risk of other banks, possibly due to risky banks in Europe or they don't have the money? Either way, the Fed has gone from lender of last resort to lender of FIRST resort especially in Repo. We are left to assume that one or more big banks or financial entities are near bankruptcy--probably in Europe. But The Fed is not saying anything about this, presumably to avoid creating a panic. Even in recent press conferences, Jay Powell is not even asked questions about this by reporters, presumably by agreement with the press to keep this all secret."
Rising Risk of Financial & Economic Chaos, Part 2 (Dec. 2019)"It's possible that we will remember September 16, 2019 as the start of the next acute financial crisis. That day, the overnight rate for overnight inter-bank loans (Fed Funds) soared from the targeted 1.5 to 1.75% rate to 5% or so. It started with problems in the Repo markets that are used by non-banks like hedge funds and other banks for temporary liquidity. Repo distress spilled-over into Fed funds. But, since a sustained rise in Fed Funds rates would crash the financial system, the US Central Bank began an effort to flood the market with liquidity through Repos (very short term loans from overnight to 1 or 2 days to 42 days recently) to satisfy bank/non-bank demand. That Repo demand hasn't calmed down or declined since September, it's accelerated!
This means that the inter-banking transmission system was not working and was/is frozen-up. This is the very definition of a financial crisis. Why? Banks are not lending to other banks possibly because of the counter-party risk of other banks, possibly due to risky banks in Europe or they don't have the money? Either way, the Fed has gone from lender of last resort to lender of FIRST resort especially in Repo. We are left to assume that one or more big banks or financial entities are near bankruptcy--probably in Europe. But The Fed is not saying anything about this, presumably to avoid creating a panic. Even in recent press conferences, Jay Powell is not even asked questions about this by reporters, presumably by agreement with the press to keep this all secret."
"This Repo crisis is the beginning of the next financial crisis. We are in it. Banks were/are not lending to other banks and/or hedge funds because of the counter-party risk. And The Fed is not explaining anything about this, presumably to avoid creating a panic. Even in recent press conferences, Jay Powell is not even asked questions about this by reporters, presumably by agreement with the press to keep this all secret. Meanwhile the stock market is soaring into bubble territory due to the tsunami of liquidity."
Worldwide Desperation to Avoid Chaotic Unraveling: Manipulated Bubble Markets and Ultimately Failure
Extreme Bubble Phase: The Fed Trapped in Repo, then QE. Either Inflate Bubbles or World Economy Blows Up (Jan. 2020)
"We are clearly in the extreme (and maybe terminal excess) phase of the multi-decade easy money bonanza. The Federal Reserve is once again trapped as lender of first resort in Repo, a market that they rarely enter (except prior to previous burst equity bubbles in years 2000 and 2008). It's becoming clear that they can't exit these markets or the financial system blows up.
Try as they might the Fed will be forced into quantitative easing soon and the markets know it. The stock market is melting-up into uncharted valuations, even exceeding the Dot.com bubble valuations on the back of endless tsunamis of liquidity and confidence in Central Banks. And barely a correction in stocks for 11 years straight! Worse, they must keep the liquidity taps on or else the whole scheme falls apart."
"Much of individual's frustration with our country is due to the fact that there are not enough jobs with adequate pay, too few opportunities, and inflation is raging while there is too little money. There is literally no hope because no politician even admits to any problem! If they can't admit that there is a problem, there certainly will be no solution. Janet Yellen keeps saying that everything is rosy while she keeps calling for even more (destructive) inflation! Obama crowed for years that the economy is wonderful. So did Ben Bernanke. Who wouldn't forgive people feeling frustrated? The economy is so bad, who would blame a young person to call for Socialism as an alternative?
Every statistic from the government is a lie. Unemployment is advertised as lowest in decades ('technically' true but basically bullshit). Inflation is raging in the most important areas: healthcare, rent, housing, tuition, food. Obama constantly crowed that the economy is great (it's not), our wars are nearly won (they are all lost), voters are told by presidential candidates that the government will create jobs (nonsense).
This generation, and any future generation, can't afford college now thanks to the still-unchecked Govt loan bubble inflating books and tuition to the moon. This and the next generation can't afford a house since the Federal Reserve has inflated them beyond their reach. The next generation is screwed. No one can afford even a modest medical procedure without being bankrupted, leading to a situation where few can pay their medical bills -- all thanks to the Govt-sponsored medical/pharma cartels and the dominance of Govt spending in medicine."
Crisis and Failure
Our Dystopian Future: Recession Without End (April 2020)
Now we have another bubble bursting. The result will continue to be Recession Without End .
"...the world-wide bond market is valued at least $110 Trillion and the world's stock markets are "worth" some $40 Trillion. Losses in a combined stock and bond rout could be something like 70% or $110 Trillion wiped-out in a very short period. $110 Trillion in fiat money would go to "money heaven."
Then, for the real disaster, there is a real possibility that once a bond or stock market rout gets going, you’ll wake up one morning and the stock futures markets are halted limit down! And then stock markets stay limit down for days or weeks and don’t or can’t re-open! When they reopen, they are down 80%. This is not an insane concept. The entire worldwide Central Bank bubble can get wiped-out within months. Scary stuff!
This is how “excess” money goes “poof”. And, in our fiat world, far too much money/credit has been created and will likely go “poof." The world would be instantly be plunged into a deep depression especially with Central Banks understood to be bankrupt."
Then, for the real disaster, there is a real possibility that once a bond or stock market rout gets going, you’ll wake up one morning and the stock futures markets are halted limit down! And then stock markets stay limit down for days or weeks and don’t or can’t re-open! When they reopen, they are down 80%. This is not an insane concept. The entire worldwide Central Bank bubble can get wiped-out within months. Scary stuff!
This is how “excess” money goes “poof”. And, in our fiat world, far too much money/credit has been created and will likely go “poof." The world would be instantly be plunged into a deep depression especially with Central Banks understood to be bankrupt."
It's entirely possible that the next financial crisis... will cause such huge disruptions to the financial system that virtually everything falls apart. We are likely entering the 3rd financial crisis in 15 years and it will be even worse than the one in 2008 since debt has only risen across the world since then.
This time, there's no country to ride to the rescue of the world economy as China did in 2009 and 2010. Why? Because even China already has high debt levels associated with financial crises. In fact, China is the epicenter of our current and latest (final?) crisis.
Global trade and payment systems cease to function as banks become widely distrusted or known to be insolvent. Bail-ins of depositor money, like that used in Cyprus, are used to help pay for losses meaning that your money in banks is at risk. Bank runs will cause panic and queues at ATMs.
...Interest rates are already zero in most countries, but they could be manipulated by CBs to go negative as they did in Europe this year, but this will obviously show how desperate the situation has become. Quantitative easing, although proven to hurt more than help, will still be used to the nth degree to fund governments as tax revenues collapse. Easing is the only thing CBs know how to do! This means that governments will buy most or all of their own debt ad infinitum.
But because global supply chains may break down due to distrust of banks and their letters of credit, all of this gov't spending combined with a reduced supply of goods portend a period of high or hyper-inflation. But hyperinflation would lead to a final collapse.
It may be so bad that you and me may not survive. It's possible that the world will not be able to sustain even close to the current 7 billion population.."
Needed: A 2nd American Revolution and a Massive Reset: Eliminate the Federal Reserve and Decentralize Governance
"I’m afraid only financial catastrophe will force the kind of reset that is needed. With that, we need the Federal Government itself to go broke in the next financial crisis (for which, the Government will be rightly blamed). But, with the money printers still in business at the Federal Reserve, there is NO WAY the government can go broke. So, the Federal Reserve has to go. The "bureaucracy" can't be permitted to save itself at everyone else's expense.
The US government going broke is EXACTLY what is required to reset the welfare rot, toughen our ignorant, lazy, entitled population, end the money center ‘hedge fund’ banking cartels, cut down the drastically bloated government bureaucracy, and to create a massive deflation in medical, tuition, defense procurement, housing, rents and all other costs to levels that the people and the nation can afford. This becomes more clearly true when you realize that average incomes are never going to catch up with all the inflated prices if we continue our current path."
I'm not a Republicrat or a Democan. I'm a revolutionary-- calling for a revolution! I advocate a 50 to 60% reduction of Federal employees and eliminating and/or outsourcing and/or downsizing and/or privatizing basically every department including defense. In reality, we really need to BURN IT DOWN and start over. This includes burning down the Federal Reserve banking system.
It's pretty obvious that a massive reset is needed since the bottom 90% of worker's wages will never catch up to gov't and Fed Reserve-induced inflation---which is what we've been seeing for decades now. The reset will happen eventually, probably through violent market and political convulsions. Why? Because what we have is unsustainable. We're going to have a depression one way or another!! In some respects we've been in a prolonged "depression" for 10 years already.
That's right, what this nation needs is a big fat ugly depression. And it's just what is needed. But for it to happen, the Federal Reserve needs to be abolished NOW. This way, they can't do all the money "printing" and helicopter money and secret bailouts that prevents a full reset, ie., a huge deflation. We cant allow the Federal bureaucracy to rescue itself at our expense! BURN IT DOWN!
It's pretty obvious that a massive reset is needed since the bottom 90% of worker's wages will never catch up to gov't and Fed Reserve-induced inflation---which is what we've been seeing for decades now. The reset will happen eventually, probably through violent market and political convulsions. Why? Because what we have is unsustainable. We're going to have a depression one way or another!! In some respects we've been in a prolonged "depression" for 10 years already.
That's right, what this nation needs is a big fat ugly depression. And it's just what is needed. But for it to happen, the Federal Reserve needs to be abolished NOW. This way, they can't do all the money "printing" and helicopter money and secret bailouts that prevents a full reset, ie., a huge deflation. We cant allow the Federal bureaucracy to rescue itself at our expense! BURN IT DOWN!
My friend you have absolutely done yourself here! And yes this is on Facebook now everything that you come up with I put on Facebook and it gets outstanding reviews and so many people read it and share it.
ReplyDeleteWell said, if only more were awake to the truth of what you have written!
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ReplyDeleteThanks Gridiron! I've been piecing together quite a bit of information over quite a long time.
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