"Large-scale Renewable Energy" + Isolated Grid System = Energy Peril (for Texas)

Everyone has heard of the major electrical power shortages in the still-ongoing Arctic weather outbreak here in Texas. At the worst, some 5 million people were without power with outside temperatures ranging from 5 deg F to 14 deg F in the early mornings---across the state. I was one of those people shivering. See my post:  Add ANOTHER Problem and Cost to Solar and Wind Power. 

Here's the thing: Texas' power grid is nearly a stand-alone power grid with limited connection to the grid of surrounding states. So when demand exceeded supply, 5 million customers were shivering in the dark! Texas wasn't able to "borrow" (enough) capacity from neighboring states.

 

Permian oil AND gas production shut-in due to severe freezing, which is Texas's major supply of natural gas. That affected supplies to conventional power plants. The power stations had their issues with the cold too; freezing water, freezing control valves etc.  Solar panels were covered with snow. Wind power crapped-out due to icing with wet snow.  Wind turbines has become an extensive industry in NW Texas. So, you could say we were quite reliant on them. Wind turbines are high maintenance, and you often see many of them idle in wind "farms." But nobody thought they'd fail with ice and snow on the blades!!

 

Our last extremely severe arctic air incursion was in 1989 when Texas population was 18 million.  After 32 years, that cold wave was forgotten but Texas has 30 million people now (compared to 18 million in 1989)

The lesson for Texas (and the world) is that, if you adopt wind and solar at levels of 5, 10 or 15% of the total power generation (or more), or if you have potential problems with older, conventional power supplies, you had better have: 

1. adequate backup power in terms of quick-starting gas turbine generators or other fossil fuel generation available and/or,  
2. Increase the number of new conventional power plants that aren't affected by severe weather, or
   
3. Increase the ability to import power should there be a supply shortage by better grid connections to neighboring states like Oklahoma, New Mexico and Louisiana (in the case of Texas) and, 
   
4. Similarly, you had better be able to sell power to other states should the supply of energy EXCEED demand due to the renewables.
   

Texas apparently has none of these things. Texas' power grid is nearly a stand-alone power grid with limited connection to the grid of surrounding states. So when demand exceeded supply, 5 million customers were shivering in the dark!  But if you adopt renewables, you'd better build-in flexibility and interconnect with other state's electric grids!  Our grid must be fortified, at significant cost, and connected to the national grid to handle these various power overflows or shortages! And that costs big money!! 

The Relatively Isolated (~90% isolated) Texas Power Grid Managed by ERCOT

 

Germany's Renewable "Free-Ride"

Germany, due the Green Party, shut down all it's nuclear plants and embarked on an enormous subsidy program to try to achieve nearly all renewable energy. They have a near-religious obsession with renewables. Toady, some 27% to 30% of it's power can be supplied from wind and solar. They've accomplished that with extensive government subsidies to everyone-including the conventional fossil-fueled utilities (more about that below). 

But Germany is integrated into all of their neighboring country's grids. They even built additional bi-directional subsea power cables to Sweden and Norway. So, if the sun don't shine and the wind doesn't blow, they are ready to import nuclear energy from France, and fossil fuel energy from Norway, Sweden, Poland, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, etc. See my post: Germany's Solar Projects are a Bust.

Conversely, if the sun shines across Germany in the summer, German power must be EXPORTED rapidly to dissipate this energy. Germany gets away with that because only because they have sane neighbors to buy or sell power -- who are not in the grip of the "climate change" hysteria and renewables "religion," or "climate fanaticism."

But they are finding out it's not a utopia, it's more of a nightmare. From my post Large Scale Solar & Wind Power Not The Solution: Too Many Problems and Costs:

For 4 months of the year during winter (when German power demand is highest), there is little sun since they are at 50 deg N Latitude with plenty of clouds, so they are reliant on conventional power generation (and/or purchased power from Sweden or France). In the summer, when the sun comes out, the surge of solar power generation requires that nearly all of traditional power generation to shut down and/or requires them to sell excess power to neighboring countries. Furthermore, wholesale spot power rates go NEGATIVE during sunny periods meaning producers aren't making money to add to the grid, they're LOSING money during these peaks..

If you don't have neighbors to sell to, then that creates a huge problem due to the time required to start and stop large conventional production. And the electric power grid must be modified to accommodate these variable power flows-- which costs taxpayers money. Then, idling conventional plants in summer cause the electric utilities to lose money and they aren't able to pay investors their dividends, so Germany has to provide assistance to the conventional utilities too!

So here's the real punchline: the cost of electric power is some $0.39 per Kw-Hr in Germany compared to $0.11 per Kw-Hr average in the US!!  That retail power cost almost certainly doesn't include additional cables and grid connections to Sweden and France. I feel confident that that cost is hidden from consumers. Remember, Germany's peak energy use is in the winter for heating when there's essentially ZERO sunshine in the 4 or 5 winter months. Nearly ZERO!  

Compare those costs with a home in Texas in winter. Say your electricity bill during a cold month is $250 because you have electric strip heating furnace or a heat pump. Your bill would be $950 at German prices!  And their manufacturing, retail and industrial sectors have a similar cost burden!!

Countries shown above in "red" are those experiencing severe debt problems. Solar and wind subsidies worsen these problems!

Why the Enormous Cost of 25 to 30% of Renewable Power (I'm asking you Germany)??  

All of the intermittent power sources such as wind and solar PV require basically a 100% backup by fossil or nuclear fueled generation plants, This is because there is no solar power at nights or during much of the winter (when power demand is highest). Wind power is very intermittent (unreliable) as well. So, going forward, widespread (>10% of total power generation) adoption of such intermittent power basically doubles the capital costs.

How can paying twice the capital cost ever make sense? Yes, existing power plants are already built, so people take comfort in ignoring the conventional utility power companies. But as subsidies rise for homeowner and commercial installations, the conventional power utilities (fossil-fueled) find their revenues and profits are down, so THEY begin to require subsidies as well.  This means that subsidies then are required for everyone!  All this to support these low quality, unreliable and expensive alternatives! How can this ever work?

That's a recipe for a cost disaster and real hardship for German people.  And for what??  They had perfectly fine nuclear power plants to provide basically free baseline power but they shut them down to assuage radical environmentalists (the Green Party).  Remember, once a nuke plant is built, the power is basically free. Amortizing the capital cost of the plant is the real ongoing (non-cash) cost.

Let it also be a warning for other pie-in-the-sky dreamers of unlimited renewables! Small-scale renewable adoption works, say up to 5 or 10% but the grid had better be modified to accomodate instability. Large-scale adoption of renewables (over 10 to 15%) doesnt' really make economic sense.