Actual Climate Data Vs Climate Models

Below is graphical data showing measured global temperatures compared to various climate model predictions for the past 40 years.

The data shows that all of the climate models funded by the US government and UN are proven wrong. None of them were able to predict the recent 17 year long "pause" in global warming. See Figure 1. Because they're all wrong, the very expensive scientists and agencies sucking off of Uncle Sam's hind tit, are very nervous about their jobs and their funding. So, they're in full denial mode.

Agencies like NOAA and NASA are actively trying to cover-up the "inconvenient" truths by "adjusting" the raw climate data without adequate explanation and otherwise explain-away the fairly clear conclusions shown in the following graphs -- the earth's warming has stopped or nearly stopped since about 1997.  

For example, the NOAA has recently decided not to comply with a House subpoena for internal documents and communications regarding a recent "study" which conveniently "denies" this warming pause. What are they trying to hide??  But most everyone knows.  It is face-saving. Also, NO ONE is allowed to embarrass our "Dear Leader" who is wrong about everything-- Mr. Obama. NO ONE is allowed to say that the Emperor has no clothes!  The simple truth is that the NOAA and NASA are trying to be friendly with the Obama administration who are pushing all sorts of economy-killing measures in cahoots with the ludicrous UN. 

Professor Judith Curry from Georgia Tech, regarding the study says ‘This short paper is not adequate to explain the very large changes that have been made to the NOAA data set… while I’m sure this latest analysis from NOAA will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration [which is currently bent on using executive action to set unilateral emissions limits against the will of Congress], I don’t regard it as a particularly useful contribution to our scientific understanding of what is going on.’

Here's the data vs the models:

Figure 1 Global Temperatures Versus Various Climate Models. UAH are data from Univ.of Alabama Huntsville, RSS is satellite data. The other data is from Climate Models

Figure 2 IPCC Climate Model Predictions Versus Recent Measurements

Figure 3
Upper Troposphere Temperatures Were "Supposed" to Rise and Create a Runaway Temperature Scenario. The Earth's oceans were predicted to "boil." There is no evidence of that "theory."

I support continued research in the area of "climate change." It would be incredibly foolish to NOT study these issues. I also call on our nation's scientists, our nuclear industry and our government to re-invigorate our research and to test commercially the intrinsically-safe Molten Salt Thorium reactors as a path forward since we have decades of Thorium fuel already stock-piled.

Netanyahu Reminds World: Arab Muslims Sat at Right Hand of Hitler

In the embedded video (also found here),  Netanyahu reminds the world that the Arab Muslims sat at the right hand of Hitler.  He implies correctly that "Palestinians" are basically Nazis.  Some quibble with his claim the Arab Muslims gave Hitler the idea of burning the Jews. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not. The sure thing is that Arab Muslims were staunchly allied with Hitler and are still committed to Hitler's goal of eradicating Jews.  It's shameful and insane that much of the world is sympathetic not to Israel but to these new Nazis!

The video reminds people that Arab Muslims have a long history of killing Jews dating back to the 1920s. And in modern history, for at least the past 100 years, Arab Muslims have rejected any and every opportunity to make peace with Israel and establish their own country. Those that try to make peace with Israel, like Anwar Sadat, are murdered. Sounds like Nazi fascism to me.

Muslims today are the new Nazis: violent, fascist, supremacist, and Jew-hating. And they blame others (Jews) for their own problems.  Not to disparage every Muslim, I'm sure that there were many "nice" people in the Nazi party too. But like Nazis, nearly every Muslim dislikes/hates Jews and wishes them harm or death to them or Israel.  And many "modern" Muslims support violent methods (bombings, etc) to "defend" or promote Islamic aims and Sharia law.  Muslims still cling to a dream of an Islamic empire (caliphate) and some are pursuing this dream with shocking violence.

This is what evil looks like: people that can't change or adjust their attitudes or thinking even in light of new or evolving evidence and where their petrified thinking causes misery, death and unhappiness in persons around them.  Arab dictators who continue to support killing Jews, destroying Israel, those who kill their own people and who never change are evil. Bashar Al-Assad is evil. He's killed some 250,000 of his own people in a massive genocide. Putin, who wants to bring back the evil USSR and is backing Assad and killing even more Syrians is evil. The Mullahs in Iran are evil. the Castros are evil. Stalin was evil. To some extent, even Obama, who is so shockingly blind and willfully ignorant of facts and history and who never learns anything or accepts new evidence that he is wrong, is evil. Evil people have a chronic inability to adjust, learn and change in light of new evidence and bring suffering to people. Even entire populations, like the Palestinians, allow themselves to become evil.

Trump and Thailand Are Right on Immigration

Trump has flat-out said that the illegals in this country must leave and apply for 'legal' readmission. This is considered shocking in this country but it's just the norm for every other country in the world. I can't go to a single country in the world and arrive without a visa (or get a stamp) or overstay my visa. And if my visa expires or I overstay, I must leave and come back with a visa renewal.

Trump also correctly says that we are either a country or not a country -- referring to the fact that we don't have a country if we have no borders. He should also say that we are either a country of law and order or we're a country of chaos and lawlessness. Under Obama, we are increasingly a country of chaos and lawlessness. This can not stand. Our current lax immigration enforcement can not stand.

We can't have an unenforced open border when we have a welfare state, otherwise we're just a free money, free-stuff chump.  Of course, that's exactly what we are because the Democrats are desperately seeking new low-information voters to extend their dominance in politics. And they pay for all of this 'free stuff' with other people's money or borrow it from the Chinese (and give the bill to the next generation).  Wonderful people are Democrats.

Democrats are all about buying votes. They are plotting to let illegals vote right now by opposing any common sense measure such as asking for ID and evidence of citizenship or eligibility.  Anyone supporting common sense voter ID rules is now labeled racist by Democrats. You're a racist if you have any common sense.

But this is just the start. We need to radically improve our tracking of all immigrants and enforce compliance with our rules and deadlines. Nearly all other countries do so! That we can't (or haven't) is shameful. We're a country where nothing works anymore. Trump is right. We are ruled by "very, very stupid people."

There is no country in the world to where I can travel and overstay my visa and expect there NOT to be a big problem. I've spent plenty of time in Thailand as a tourist and as a retiree. I can't stay there as an "illegal" without a big problem! Thailand manages it's immigration law with far more competence than the so-called '1st world' US.  For example, if I overstay my visa there, I am subject to a fine of $15 per day for each day that I stay on. There is 100% chance of this fine being enforced.  They will stamp my passport "Overstay" and if I do it again, my ability to re-enter Thailand may be in doubt.

Anyone staying in Thailand on an extended visa, such as retirees, must report to immigration every 3 months and report their current address and contact information. If I fail to do this, there will be big fines and I could reasonably expect a visit from the local police if I don't show up.  This is what America should adopt. It's a sad commentary when we need to copy "lowly" Thailand to properly enforce our immigration law and order.

Since Thailand has been one of the few prosperous countries in it's region, it has an immigration problem where other Asians are coming in and trying to find work. Unlike the US, they don't have a bullshit PC problem with regard to the involvement of local police to enforce immigration. There, local police will sweep through marketplaces and ask workers for Thai national IDs. If you don't have your ID, that's fine, but they will return the next day to ask for it.  Any suggestion, in this country, of  local police verifying immigration status is greeted with howls of protests and cries of "racism" by Democrats in Congress, the nation and in "sanctuary" cities.

Since we don't have a national ID card, every driver's license in this country should indicate citizenship status. In every traffic stop or encounter with local police should result in local police to check for compliance with visa rules. Like Thailand, if you don't have evidence that you are in compliance, you should be allowed to produce it the following day at a local police station. And if you don't show up, then local police (or ICE) should follow up to find and potentially deport that person. This is called "law and order."  I know we haven't seen it in a long time but this is what it looks like.

We need Federal laws to explicitly outlaw "sanctuary cities" to require jail time for the entire city leadership if they fail to comply with such a law.  We are either a country of law and order or we're a country of lawlessness and chaos. You choose.

Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman Brothers?

Today, Deutsche Bank announced some $7 billion loss for it's 3rd quarter and announced that their dividend will likely be suspended.  In June, the bank had their debt downgraded to BBB+ or just 3 notches above junk.

There is some concern that DB is the next Lehman. Maybe it's worse!  Lehman's credit rating was AA- at the time it was beginning to circle down the drain.  It's fall was very quick. In June 9, 2008, Lehman's credit rating was reduced to AA- minus with negative outlook.  Just 3 months later, Lehman declared bankruptcy and shook the entire foundation of the world's finances. Could we be 3 months from another such event?

The 2nd Great Depression was beginning with the Lehman bankruptcy but was ultimately halted or delayed by eliminating "mark-to-market" accounting for banks. This allowed banks to basically lie about their financial condition. This state of affairs continues to this day. Uncertainty about bank's financial conditions could therefore begin again.  It might have already started as the TED spread is rising recently (a measure of interbank lending rate relative to treasury bills).

From ZeroHedge, here's a chronology of the events at DB during the past 15 months that is very worrisome:

• In April of 2014, Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it’s capital structure. Why?
• 1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount. Why again? It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media. The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity. Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
• Fast forwarding to March of this year: Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry’s “stress tests” and is given a stern warning to shore up it’s capital structure.
• In April, Deutsche Bank confirms it’s agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR. The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ. (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime).
• In May, one of Deutsche Bank’s CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authorityby the board of directors. We guess that this is a “crisis move”. In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
• June 5: Greece misses it’s payment to the IMF. The risk of default across all of it’s debt is now considered acute. This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
• June 6/7: (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank’s two CEO’s announce their surprise departure from the company. (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers). Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June. Jürgen Fitschen will step down next May.
• June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+ Just three notches above “junk”. (Incidentally, BBB+ is even lower than Lehman’s downgrade – which preceded it’s collapse by just 3 months)"

Scary, huh?  Was the 2nd Great Depression just delayed?

Carl Icahn: "Danger Ahead....God Knows Where This Is Going"

This video montage of Carl Icahn discussing the broken the state of US politics and the idiocy of the Federal Reserve, who helped in 2008/2009 but who created that crisis in the first place (along with tax policies).  Now the Fed is unable to bite the bullet and reverse the "medicine" which will almost certainly create another crisis -- maybe a worse crisis.  This video is well worth a look.

Modern Civilization As We Know It Is At Risk

It's entirely possible that the next financial crisis, which may be starting as we speak, will cause such huge disruptions to the financial system that virtually everything falls apart.  We are likely entering the 3rd financial crisis in 15 years and it will be even worse than the one in 2008 since debt has only risen across the world since then.

And all of this has it's root cause in the abandonment of the gold-backed currency arrangement called Bretton Woods in 1971 by Richard Nixon.  It was done at that time to enable the government to run deficits to fund the Viet Nam war without raising taxes to pay for it.  Once world currencies are decoupled from precious metals (means 'fiat' money), governments are free to create excessive credit, run persistent fiscal and trade deficits thereby creating huge global imbalances which ultimately ends in financial and economic crises.  Another crisis is on the way -- it's just a matter of time.  And the next crisis might bring down the entire financial system and even our modern civilization.  Here's how it might play out:

Stock and corporate bond markets will crash, banks or institutions will fail, economies will all shrink at breath-taking rates. Money will be "wiped out." Rich people won't be spared this time. Everyone will become poor. The only "winners" will be those whose lose less. But everyone will lose.

This time, there's no country to ride to the rescue of the world economy as China did in 2009 and 2010. Why? Because even China already has high debt levels associated with financial crises. In fact, China is the epicenter of our current and latest (final?) crisis.

Global trade and payment systems cease to function as banks become widely distrusted or known to be insolvent. Bail-ins of depositor money, like that used in Cyprus, are used to help pay for losses meaning that your money in banks is at risk. Bank runs will cause panic and queues at ATMs.

Governments and central banks won't be of much help either. Interest rates are already zero in most countries, but they could be manipulated by CBs to go negative as they did in Europe this year, but this will obviously show how desperate the situation has become.  Quantitative easing, although proven to hurt more than help, will still be used to the nth degree to fund governments as tax revenues collapse. Easing is the only thing CBs know how to do!  This means that governments will buy most or all of their own debt ad infinitum.

But because global supply chains may break down due to distrust of banks and their letters of credit, all of this gov't spending combined with a reduced supply of goods portend a period of high or hyper-inflation. But hyperinflation would lead to a final collapse.

It may be so bad that you and me may not survive. It's possible that the world will not be able to sustain even close to the current 7 billion population -- maybe only sustain 1 or 2 billion.

What we might expect as "modern" civilization collapses:

• Global "total stop" of international trade that is more persistent than the "sudden stop" of global trade experienced in 2008.  
• Central banks, using money "printing," will try to force government interest rates to near-zero so as to continue gov't spending at hitherto unimagined levels in a desperate and unsuccessful effort to maintain final demand. But lower quality corporate debt interest rates will rise. Many companies will go out of business.
• Long tax holidays in the US will lead to $3 to $4 Trillion annual deficits paid by Federal Reserve debt monetization (where the Federal Reserve buys all of the debt issued by the Treasury so they don't have to sell the debt to the public market).  
• Global banks will mostly fail due to blow-ups in the $1,200 Trillion derivatives markets and it's knock-on effects. No financial system = nothing functions. How can there be world trade when banks don't trust one another? Remember 2009 when world trade halted?
• Governments will nationalize banks and absorb enormous losses and assume debts. But eventually, even government creditworthiness will become suspect, first in the weakest or peripheral countries.
• All major countries will "print" vast amounts of money to fund government functions and pay government personnel to fund deficit spending, to pay for widespread bailouts of banks, pensions and insurance entities and to provide income support to people.  However, since global supply chains are not functioning, there is little to buy and prices of available goods may rocket higher for a time.  (think Venezuela)
• When the financial system fails, trade stops, stock markets drop 90% and then close entirely. Vast amounts of corporate debt then sovereign debts fail (weakest goes down first).  No one has jobs because no one can be paid. There is no trade because no one has money. There is no international trade because the international payment system fails.
• Revolutions will occur first in many countries including Saudi Arabia, China, Indonesia, and Thailand. Islamic terrorism will expand. The mass migration of Muslims out of the Middle East will worsen and overwhelm Europe. The European Union will dissolve and nation-states are re-established. Then revolutions will overturn governments. The current unrest in Malaysia and Brazil will spread. 
• Russia will try to seize Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to get the oil. They just mobilized into Syria. Of course, this will trigger war with the US. 
• Starvation will force a mass migration of Mexicans and Central Americans into the US. Since the US has no wall or will, the US will be invaded by impoverished masses. Finally, huge protests will cause the military to control the southern border. Vast throngs of N. Africans and Middle-easterners will "invade" Europe.
• The US government will seize large portions of the economy including energy production, banks, utilities, pension plans, IRAs and bank balances.  Cash will be outlawed.  Only gold will be "money."
• Government will likely employ totalitarian methods to "protect" citizens. (After all, governments cause huge problems, then step-in to further screw-up the situation! That's what they do!)  The Constitution will likely be suspended or ignored. The military may take over parts of the country. Virtually all remaining economic activity may become part of the government. Production and prices will be set by the Gov't. The same thing will likely happen in Canada, the UK and Australia. And this might be the best case scenario!! 
• Global population will shrink dramatically as starvation and disease kill 100s of millions or even billions of people in Asia and the rest of the world.
• Eventually, out of the ashes of financial collapse, the world will establish currencies backed once again by gold and a long march toward recovery can begin from a MUCH lower level of economic activity.  It will be a time of starting over.

All this because we've abandoned the gold standard which enabled out-of-control spending, trade deficits and budget deficits.  And it's been downhill ever since.  Out of the ashes of our next financial conflagration, the surviving population will again demand a gold back currency to form the foundation for the next phase of human economic life.  It will be easier to institute a gold standard post-crash because there will no "money" around. It will have been wiped-out. The stunning failure of fiat currencies will be understood for centuries thereafter.

Financial Crisis Dead Ahead

We have already seen two financial crises in the past 15 years and it appears that we are on the verge of another one right now. The magnitudes of each crisis are increasing. Since debt is even higher, it should be expected that the 2015 crisis will be worse than 2008 -- maybe even catastrophic.

World-Wide Debt Higher Than Ever

We're on the verge of the 3rd financial crisis in 15 years and here's why there is no way out now:

• The China story is finished. Some estimate that China's economy is contracting now  or nearly so. They have spent enormous sums since 2009 and have an enormous overhang of bad debt, empty cities and malls, and bridges and roads to nowhere. This debt is blowing up as we speak. Excessive pollution has also been a factor in China reaching it's limit of growth. Chinese debt has soared to levels normally associated with crises in the 5 years leading up to 2015. Because of high debt levels, even China has recently slowed down it's debt-financed spending which has caused the world-wide commodity bust since 2012 and the stock market swoon this autumn. 

• If the China story is finished, then the emerging market story is finished.

• The limits to borrowed fiscal stimulus have been reached. The marginal utility of debt is approaching zero in most countries including China. Deficit spending won't buy much growth anymore.

• Quantitative Easing (money printing) has been proven a failure. Even the US Federal Reserve said it didn't work.

• The 33 year period of steadily falling interest rates is over interest rates at near zero. Even when interest rates stop falling, this represents a trend change that removes the "wind at our back."  Interest rates may actually start to rise even in the government sector. Financial distress is already causing corporate interest rates to rise. High yield corporate bonds are slowly sinking (and yields rising).  Expect this to continue.

A kick-off to the next financial crisis could be huge decline in the stock market when a financial firm has some kind of financial distress or failure. (that's what happened with Lehman Brothers and that almost brought down the world financial system).  It could be a failure of a highly indebted commodity trading institution like Glencore that deals in commodities. It could be a "blow-up" in the $1,200 billion derivatives market. It could be defaults of a company like Petrobras or a default of a country like Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine or Russia that starts a chain reaction in the banking sector. The near-default of Greece nearly caused a financial panic in Europe. That's why they were bailed-out again.

Financial panics tend to morph into deep recessions. But this time I don't see a way out of the next recession.  China (or any other country) will not be able to spend like they did in 2009 to 2011 since their debt levels are already high.  No other government will be able to offset the equivalent of the 2008 shock like China did. The US will not build ghost cities and high speed railroads to nowhere. They can't. They don't know how. Despite all the disingenuous rhetoric, there are no infrastructure projects ready to go (just like in 2009).  If we need infrastructure projects now, those projects should have commenced (ie., planning, budgeting and engineering) about 5 years ago. But nothing has happened. Nothing is ready. The US won't have the shale fracking boom either. Oil prices have collapsed and may collapse further.

If we have a world-wide financial/banking crisis, world trade will stop again like it did in 2008. In 2008 and 2009, when confidence in banks was widespread (no one knew who had too much bad debt), the entire basis of international trade, ie., letters of credit, were not accepted. World trade stopped.  It happened once in 2008 and could happen again. Global trade and global supply chains could be impaired for longer next time.

With such a shock, stocks will crack-up, Almost certainly the world economy will crack-up. Derivatives may blow-up. Banks/Financial institutions will fail. Adding to the downward pressure will come defaults in commodity producing countries (including countries like Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria). Resource companies will go bankrupt. Hedge funds and financial entities will fail dramatically.  Pensions will crater, unemployment will rise.

Even though Quantitative Easing has been discontinued in the US as it's been deemed to cause more problems than it solves, it is likely to make a comeback here and everywhere when a crisis hits. Not only does it lower the cost of borrowing by the government, it is about reducing the value of your currency in the world markets.

Already every government in the world has tried to debase their currencies faster than all the others in a grotesque "beggar thy neighbor" currency war. This currency war is a de facto trade war and it's already under way. Trade wars were the very thing that lead to downward spiral of world trade in the 1930s causing the prolonged Great Depression. This time, it probably won't be tariffs (like the Smoot Hawley Act) but competitive devaluations that have the same effect of chilling global trade (although Trump has proposed tariffs!). Global trade is already contracting. If everyone is devaluing at the same time, how can anyone get more than a temporary advantage?

QE will likely make a comeback in the US. I can see a situation where government receipts collapse but government spending increases. I could see prolonged income tax holidays -- meaning that government revenues drop to nearly nothing and all government debt is bought by the government itself (the Federal Reserve) which is the very definition of QE.  US deficits could rise to $3 or $4 Trillion per yr or so and funded entirely by the Federal Reserve money printing.  The rub comes when people that are receiving income support find that there is little to buy due to the global trade collapse and certain prices begin to rise. Then you might see a burst of hyperinflation and then a final collapse.

I guess we might see nationalizations of banks all over the world to restart trade. But this entire scenario is about as akin to the end of the world as ever imagined.

Modern civilization is likely entirely at risk.

Time to Eliminate Public Unions: Federal Worker's Make 40% More Than Private Sector

Federal workers now make far more than private sector workers--when you include benefits.

From USA Today:  Overall, federal workers earned an average salary of $67,691 in 2008 for occupations that exist both in government and the private sector, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The average pay for the same mix of jobs in the private sector was $60,046 in 2008, the most recent data available.

But these salary figures do not include the value of health, pension and other benefits, which averaged $40,785 per federal employee in 2008 vs. $9,882 per private worker, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In total,  more unionized public workers sector makes about 40% more than the much less unionized private sector.

Some 37% of public employees are unionized and only 7% of private sector are unionized.

State and Federal employees costs have risen well beyond those in the private sector. Why should a paper-pusher in a government agency even need a union and higher pay? And at the expense of the taxpayer? Every dollar a Federal employee makes above market rates is an extortion of the taxpayer! This is a great example why unions should be banned in the public sector. Such a ban naturally would include elimination of teacher's unions in every state. These unions resist reforms and place teacher's needs and wants ahead of the students. End it!

Ban public sector unions at the Federal and Local levels. Pass a nationwide "right-to-work" law to make it the law of the land. Also, Repeal Bacon Davis act which jacks up costs of public projects and is tantamount to extortion of taxpayers. 

US Needs Alternative High School For Drop-Outs

Black and Hispanic births are already the majority of births in this country. The US is on a path to have a white minority by 2040. But more than half of minority kids can't or don't graduate our current "academic" focused high schools. Where this is the case, maybe we need an alternative of teaching them practical job skills and life skills in addition to basic reading, writing and arithmetic.

Currently, kids that drop-out of school have very few options in the Obama economy. Some 37% of black kids who drop-out are in prison for instance. Military service becomes an option, but most of these kids couldn't pass a drug test.

We need to create a "vocational" high school path for those young people who can not graduate an "academic" high school. It should all be voluntary. Ideally the vocational option might even appeal to young people who are doing fine in our "regular" high schools, as currently defined but want a different path in life.

It's time to acknowledge that up to 50 to 60% of Blacks and Hispanics don't have the intellectual capability and discipline to graduate from "academic" US high schools, we need alternate paths for these young people who are destined to drop out.  And standardized tests predict this result well.

An alternative high school would still teach basic reading, writing and arithmetic but also vocational related skills. Such vocational skills might include bookkeeping, secretarial, plumbing, electrician, auto mechanics, auto body repair, carpentry, wood working, house painting, culinary skills, secretarial skills, basic entrepreneurship, proficiency in Microsoft programs such as Word, Excel, tax preparation and travel agency for example. But it could also include arts such as visual arts, silkscreen printing, painting, dance, singing, or playing musical instruments, Vocational training could include apprenticeships with local businesses.

Maybe the vocational alternative becomes an option after 1 or 2 years of "academic" high school when it becomes fairly clear that students are not going to graduate despite good attendance. If kids are truant or show no interest, even after trying the "vocational" alternative, then they should be sent home or to a 3rd option: bootcamp.

Many minority kids have discipline problems due to little or no parenting and could benefit from a "bootcamp" experience that is a 3rd alternative to conventional or vocational high schools. It might resemble military bootcamp.  After all, the military is expert at transforming young people in bootcamp -- giving them discipline and training which changes their lives. Many of these minorities have little discipline, no experience of accomplishing anything, no pride or self-esteem. Bootcamp works.  This could be the most important idea of all.

Democrats Have Shifted Hard Left Since JFK

It's interesting that Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed Socialist, is way ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary polls. Sanders is very far Left on the political spectrum. Predictably he's in favor of big taxes, big government and even bigger spending. The rise of an avowed Socialist on the Democratic primary shows how far Left the Democrats have shifted in recent years. Too bad Socialism is proven failure nearly everywhere.

The difference between the Democratic and Republican party used to be small and both parties were relatively centrist. The US has been, and still is a center-right country -- centrist but leaning slightly to the right.

For example, JFK would be considered a solid conservative now in comparison to Obama Democrats as he was a supply-side tax cutter, a staunch foe of Communism and a big supporter of a strong military -- not unlike Ronald Reagan.

It was JFK that said that "a rising tide lifts all boats" meaning that general economic prosperity helps everyone. This, of course, is true. But Obama Democrats, in a denial of the obvious, would derisively mock he idea as just more tired "trickle down," and "we've tried that before and it didn't work" as typically false narratives. (Instead, it is Obama Democrat's big government welfare state that is the most pathetic trickle-down idea of them all as welfare just helps people remain comfortable in their poverty.)

JFK's acknowlegement that a rising tide that lifts all boats was not a promise of income equality. That can never be guaranteed without hurting everyone. Communist and hard Left Socialist nations "solve" the inequality problem by manipulating and mandating similar wages for most people. But those "equalized" wages are very, very low and get lower over time due to inflation. Look at Cuba. Doctors make $68 per month! In reality, Leftism is a recipe for poverty for the masses. But those connected to the top bureaucrats, and the top bureaucrats themselves, live a high life of luxury and decidedly unequal income. Everyone else is impoverished and have nothing to look forward to, but the ruling elite and their entourage live a life of wealth and privilege. How about that for equality??

Interestingly, our country's movement toward more big government is already unfairly rewarding those that are connected to the powerful. Corporate donors to the Democratic party could "buy" relief from ObamaCare provisions for example. Those numbers in the 1000s. Seven out of the ten most wealthy counties in the country are located adjacent to Washington DC, showing how people are unfairly benefiting from government "connections." DC is a feeding trough for lobbyists, lawyers and other sycophants. Working for the Federal government itself is now a hugely rewarding as pay and benefits are now over 40% higher than similar jobs in private enterprise.

JFK also called for income tax cuts across the board to "improve" tax revenues. This was Reagan's mantra in 1980 and it worked in both cases. Because it conflicts with their failed ideologies, Obama Democrats refuse to accept the fact that lower taxes bring more prosperity, growth and improved tax revenues. But it is true and shows this hard shift to the Left by Obama Democrats.

With the "leadership" of Obama, the grand old Democratic party of JFK and Truman has devolved into the party of irresponsible people FOR irresponsible people.  Now the Democratic party is the party of ever more Government regulation and intrusion, more taxes, even more spending, and endless deficits. Together these smother the economy. They like this because poor economic performance gives them excuses for yet more government intervention!

The Obama Democrats are the party of endless deficits and debt, burdening the next generation with huge debt, shameless lying and smearing the opposition, demonizing and attacking the prosperous and anyone who happens to disagree with them, unlimited giveaways, "something-for-nothing," unlimited amnesty and forgiveness for the most irresponsible part of the country.  They are now the party that ignores the Constitution and Congress, ignoring and abusing immigration laws thereby facilitating the unlimited immigration of huge numbers of low and no-skill Central Americans -- all for political "gain," no budgeting, no effective gov't oversight or managing, killing the unborn, and food stamps for all. All of this is paid for with other people's money, or worse, paid with "printed" money. Add debasement of the currency to the Democrat's "credentials."

With Obama Democrats there are no consequences, no accountability, no apologies, no humility, nothing but failure and flops -- all covered-up by lies, phony excuses and "spin."  We are surrounded by big government failures: ObamaCare is hurting more people than helping, the VA is killing people and is a cost disaster which shows the failure of socialized medicine, Amtrak kills people and only survives only on government welfare, $8 Trillion of new debt in just 7 years with nothing to show for it, ineptitude and weakness in foreign policy and complete anarchy at the border.  What a sad day for America! Never before have the Democrats deserved to be more punished severely in the polls.  Democrats used to be a great political party that has gone wildly astray under Barack Obama.  

Fast Collapse or Slow? I Think Fast

Back in 2008, in the aftermath of a mortgage security meltdown there were so much distrust among banks that letters of credit and "eurodollars"liquidity -- the entire basis of payment for international trade, were refused for a month or so. International trade came to a halt. Yes, governments stepped in to backstop banks (sometimes whether they wanted it or not). Eventually, that situation eased.

But a similar, but more lasting ‘sudden stop’ might happen again and the drastic disruption to global trade and world supply chains (including food supplies) could be a basis for a rapid and prolonged collapse of the world economy.

I've written before that the collapse of commodity and oil prices along with high levels of debt might put the global economy at risk of collapse.

One problem is that we've reached "peak-cheap-oil." This means that the marginal cost of oil is so high now that when additional barrels of oil are demanded -- as is the case when the economy grows -- oil prices rise so quickly that it hurts consumer incomes and puts the economy in recession. That happened in 2008 when oil prices hit $140 per barrel. Consumers found their budgets so pinched that many stopped paying their mortgages. Mortgage debt stress morphed into a financial crisis and deep recession. Oil prices hit $108 in 2014 and it's causing a slower economy in 2015 as health care insurance and rents rise while wages are stagnant or falling. Slower growth is why oil prices (and all other commodity prices) are now dropping. Note the oil price that causes consumer retrenchment is dropping. $70 dollar oil in 2016 may be a limit.

Today, we literally can't afford high oil costs. If the economy can no longer afford high oil prices, then the economy can't grow! (because growth causes high prices!)

Low and falling oil and commodity prices are hurting all of the commodity producing countries putting them in recession and lowering their demand for our products. Sure enough, US exports are declining which means lower GDP. Chinese exports are declining. World trade is declining. High levels of debt in commodity producing countries may face defaults. Entire countries are facing default including Venezuela, Russia, Egypt and Ukraine. Some energy companies will likely face defaults.

And low oil prices hurt employment in the US oil and gas industry which lowers aggregate consumer income. US oil and gas was one of the few industries in this country providing strong employment growth and high wages. Now, that's gone. All of this is the stuff of recession.

Furthermore, the world has reached "peak debt." This means that we've basically reached the end of debt's marginal utility, meaning the amount of growth per unit of debt has declined to nearly nothing. I call it "debt saturation." It's true here and even true in China now, as their debt levels have skyrocketed since 2008. See my blog "More Debt Won't Work; Charts to Prove It."

China's economy has dramatically slowed it's debt spending as debt levels have reached historically unsustainable levels normally associated with financial crises. They "saved" the world economy in 2008 with massive projects funded by debt.  But now, the utility of debt has collapsed there too. The slowing Chinese economy is also causing all world commodity prices to collapse. Peak debt has come to China too.

And we've also reached the end of falling interest rates. Ever since 1982,  we've enjoyed a 33 year period of ever lower interest rates which has put the "wind at the back" of the economy for all that time. Now we're at zero. Most of the world is at zero. They can't go lower. Not only are rates not dropping, they might be rising. Some commodity producing countries are raising rates to defend their currencies. And the US Federal Reserve is determined to raise rates this year. But note that even steady interest rates are a problem.

Also, we've even learned that money printing, or QE, no longer works. At first it worked, but now it doesn't. The Federal Reserve stopped doing it because it wasn't really working, except to boost assets that wealthy people own. And it's distortions are known to outweigh it's benefit.

If we've reached the end of affordable energy, the end of debt's marginal utility (here and in China), no further interest rate decreases, falling commodity prices, falling consumer income and no more QE, then we've reached the "end" of world GDP growth.

And if GDP growth is ending, then the debt accumulated to pay for that growth may will prove to be unsustainable. After all, debt is predicated on rising incomes (growth) that enable future payments that include interest payments. If the economy stagnates or shrinks, then the debt with interest can't be serviced. You're seeing that in Greece and now Puerto Rico. You're seeing that in commodity producing countries and commodity producing companies. There will likely be significant defaults in energy and certain sovereign debts. These defaults will slow the economy further. More slowing causes more defaults, and on and on. This is called a depression.

What that means is that the debt crisis in 2008 was likely a prelude to more debt trouble -- even massive defaults -- in the years ahead. It might even be a prolonged economic Depression. Why prolonged? Because we no tools that works to counter it!!

So, when debt defaults create another financial crisis, it may be the "blow-ups" of the huge derivatives market that become the new crisis. An "accident" in derivatives related to commodities or the debt of commodity-producing or other countries may become the problem. It wouldn't take much to put bank's solvency in question, especially in Europe. Banks there (still) have low levels of capital. The sheer size in dollar terms of these derivatives and the size of losses may dwarf what governments might be able to do to reassure markets. In other words, a panic may not be halted. The safety of banks may again be questioned and another sudden halt of trade of all types (loss of faith in letters of credit like 2008) could happen. This time, the sudden stop of international trade and a failure of global supply chains might be prolonged as government's won't be able to cover bank losses. This scenario represents a fast collapse. This is just one scenario that could result from credit distress.

During the next recession, every central bank in the world would resort to "printing money" and buy up distressed debts, broken derivatives and fund government spending even when tax revenues crash. I could see the US running a $3 trillion annual deficit monetized by the central bank (the CB buys that debt). But maintaining government and government beneficiary spending while the global supply chain is compromised might create a rapid inflation when the supply of goods is curtailed.  If goods aren't available due to lack of credit to fund trade, and people find themselves with money the government sends them, then prices could rise rapidly. Money could become "funny money"as what it can purchase declines. This is called hyperinflation. You have this situation today in Venezuela.

If I'm right, we're facing falling world trade, recession, defaults, crisis, depression, wild money printing, hyperinflation and finally collapse (in that order). Get ready for nationalization of banks, more gov’t control and totalitarian methods employed to prolong a new but much lower level of normal that could last decades. No wonder all the movies set in the future feature dystopia. Does art imitate life? Or does life imitate art?

Sandra Bland Had Many Run-ins With Police; Family Couldn't Afford $500 Bail?

There are plenty of recent cases where black persons get stopped by police (usually by doing something wrong, stupid or criminal) and they end up causing huge problems for themselves. Then they blame others for the problems that they themselves create.

A great example is Sandra Bland, a black woman, who was stopped outside of Houston for a very minor infraction of not signaling for a lane change. Sandra, like many entitled blacks with a "chip on their shoulder," ended up giving the officer "attitude," challenged the officer and finally resisted officer commands. She thought she was being smart to challenge the authority of the officer. Anyway, the cop was very short tempered and ordered her out of the car and arrested her.

Note to black people: You don't talk back, disrespect, resist or disobey the police and expect a happy outcome! What could be more obvious!  Everyone knows that except many entitled and/or stupid black people. 

Sandra Bland ended up in jail for three days, then she sadly killed herself. Now her family is predictably crying "racism" and hiring attorneys. But when asked why they didn't post bail to get her out of jail right away, the family blamed some "communication problem" then abruptly left the media circus news conference. The family couldn't come up with $500 to bail her out??

Oh, there was a phone in her cell and was allowed 5 calls, so she could have called people. But maybe she had already used up the goodwill of friends for her previous trouble? Or maybe the family really didn't care since she had been in trouble frequently?

You see, Sandra Bland had a long history of traffic stops and run-ins with police in Chicago. According to NBC5, she she owed a total of $7,579.00 in court fines resulting from five traffic stops in various Chicago suburbs (including a DUI), and she had been cited several times for her failure to pay those fines. She had at least 10 encounters herself with police in both Illinois and Texas in past years. The words "Failure to comply" was frequently cited by officials and police.

She apparently had mental problems as she tried to kill herself in 2014. Her family claims they know nothing about that. (Liars!) Her autopsy showed that she had considerable levels of marijuana in her system and that she had been self-mutilating (cutting) herself. What a mess! It really is sad.

All this is exposed by a simple and random traffic stop.