Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Whites to Become a Minority in the US by 2050

The US is projected by Pew Research to have a minority white population by 2050.  Already white births are in the minority.  This change is projected primarily because of  high Latino immigration and the high fertility rates for that group compared to whites.  Blacks are projected to remain at 13% of the population while Latinos will rise to 29% from 14% now.  Asians are projected to increase from 5 to 9 percent of the population. All of these are projections of current trends.

From Reuter's "Whites to become Minority by 2050"
The U.S. population will grow to 438 million in 2050 from 296 million in 2005 if current population trends continue, the Pew Research Center study found.  Non-Hispanic whites would account for 47 percent of the total in 2050, it concluded.
By that time, one in every five Americans will be a foreign-born immigrant, compared to one in eight in 2005.
"Of the 117 million people added to the population in this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren," the study said.
While the white population, with its lower fertility rate, ages, the Latino population, the nation's largest minority, will triple in size. Latinos will be responsible for 60 percent of the population growth until 2050.  They will account for 29 percent of the population, or 128 million in 2050, up from 14 percent now, the study said.
"The number of whites will increase, but only by 4 percent," said D'Vera Cohn, one of the report's authors.
The Asian population will almost double in percentage terms, from 5 to 9 percent, while blacks will remain around 13 percent of the total, the report said.
This country's collective IQ will decline somewhat when the proportion of whites declines.  This isn't racist, it's just math. Latinos and blacks are reported to have median IQs of 89 and 85, respectively.  It doesn't sound like much, but even slight changes of the nation's median IQ means significantly less persons in the "gifted" range and a significant increases of those in the "intellectually deficient" range.  For example, the black population in the US with a median IQ of 85 (and a standard deviation of 13) has about 50 times less gifted persons (IQ greater than 130) as a percentage of the population than whites.  In a similar way, the relative number of deficient and severely deficient is much higher.

Both groups have very high and persistent secondary school dropout rates upwards of 40 to 50% and both populations have shown themselves to "fall" for populist politicians with detrimental consequences in their native continents and countries.  For example, name one prosperous African country. There aren't any! Most are in collapse. 

As we become more Latino and Black, expect this country to look more like Africa and South America.  Think of Detroit as a piece of Africa in America (or Memphis or New Orleans) right now. These groups, on average, can't hold a candle to the cultural and intellectual success of the Northern Europeans who founded the USA.

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