Saturday, August 29, 2015

Financial Crisis Dead Ahead

We have already seen two financial crises in the past 15 years and it appears that we are on the verge of another one right now. The magnitudes of each crisis are increasing. Since debt is even higher, it should be expected that the 2015 crisis will be worse than 2008 -- maybe even catastrophic.

World-Wide Debt Higher Than Ever
We're on the verge of the 3rd financial crisis in 15 years and here's why there is no way out now:
  • If the China story is finished, then the emerging market story is finished.
  • The 33 year period of steadily falling interest rates is over interest rates at near zero. Even when interest rates stop falling, this represents a trend change that removes the "wind at our back."  Interest rates may actually start to rise even in the government sector. Financial distress is already causing corporate interest rates to rise. High yield corporate bonds are slowly sinking (and yields rising).  Expect this to continue.
A kick-off to the next financial crisis could be huge decline in the stock market when a financial firm has some kind of financial distress or failure. (that's what happened with Lehman Brothers and that almost brought down the world financial system).  It could be a failure of a highly indebted commodity trading institution like Glencore that deals in commodities. It could be a "blow-up" in the $1,200 billion derivatives market. It could be defaults of a company like Petrobras or a default of a country like Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine or Russia that starts a chain reaction in the banking sector. The near-default of Greece nearly caused a financial panic in Europe. That's why they were bailed-out again.

Financial panics tend to morph into deep recessions. But this time I don't see a way out of the next recession.  China (or any other country) will not be able to spend like they did in 2009 to 2011 since their debt levels are already high.  No other government will be able to offset the equivalent of the 2008 shock like China did. The US will not build ghost cities and high speed railroads to nowhere. They can't. They don't know how. Despite all the disingenuous rhetoric, there are no infrastructure projects ready to go (just like in 2009).  If we need infrastructure projects now, those projects should have commenced (ie., planning, budgeting and engineering) about 5 years ago. But nothing has happened. Nothing is ready. The US won't have the shale fracking boom either. Oil prices have collapsed and may collapse further.

If we have a world-wide financial/banking crisis, world trade will stop again like it did in 2008. In 2008 and 2009, when confidence in banks was widespread (no one knew who had too much bad debt), the entire basis of international trade, ie., letters of credit, were not accepted. World trade stopped.  It happened once in 2008 and could happen again. Global trade and global supply chains could be impaired for longer next time.

With such a shock, stocks will crack-up, Almost certainly the world economy will crack-up. Derivatives may blow-up. Banks/Financial institutions will fail. Adding to the downward pressure will come defaults in commodity producing countries (including countries like Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria). Resource companies will go bankrupt. Hedge funds and financial entities will fail dramatically.  Pensions will crater, unemployment will rise.

Even though Quantitative Easing has been discontinued in the US as it's been deemed to cause more problems than it solves, it is likely to make a comeback here and everywhere when a crisis hits. Not only does it lower the cost of borrowing by the government, it is about reducing the value of your currency in the world markets.

Already every government in the world has tried to debase their currencies faster than all the others in a grotesque "beggar thy neighbor" currency war. This currency war is a de facto trade war and it's already under way. Trade wars were the very thing that lead to downward spiral of world trade in the 1930s causing the prolonged Great Depression. This time, it probably won't be tariffs (like the Smoot Hawley Act) but competitive devaluations that have the same effect of chilling global trade (although Trump has proposed tariffs!). Global trade is already contracting. If everyone is devaluing at the same time, how can anyone get more than a temporary advantage?

QE will likely make a comeback in the US. I can see a situation where government receipts collapse but government spending increases. I could see prolonged income tax holidays -- meaning that government revenues drop to nearly nothing and all government debt is bought by the government itself (the Federal Reserve) which is the very definition of QE.  US deficits could rise to $3 or $4 Trillion per yr or so and funded entirely by the Federal Reserve money printing.  The rub comes when people that are receiving income support find that there is little to buy due to the global trade collapse and certain prices begin to rise. Then you might see a burst of hyperinflation and then a final collapse.

I guess we might see nationalizations of banks all over the world to restart trade. But this entire scenario is about as akin to the end of the world as ever imagined.

Modern civilization is likely entirely at risk.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Time to Eliminate Public Unions: Federal Worker's Make 40% More Than Private Sector

Federal workers now make far more than private sector workers--when you include benefits.

From USA Today:  Overall, federal workers earned an average salary of $67,691 in 2008 for occupations that exist both in government and the private sector, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The average pay for the same mix of jobs in the private sector was $60,046 in 2008, the most recent data available.

But these salary figures do not include the value of health, pension and other benefits, which averaged $40,785 per federal employee in 2008 vs. $9,882 per private worker, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In total,  more unionized public workers sector makes about 40% more than the much less unionized private sector.

Some 37% of public employees are unionized and only 7% of private sector are unionized.

State and Federal employees costs have risen well beyond those in the private sector. Why should a paper-pusher in a government agency even need a union and higher pay? And at the expense of the taxpayer? Every dollar a Federal employee makes above market rates is an extortion of the taxpayer! This is a great example why unions should be banned in the public sector. Such a ban naturally would include elimination of teacher's unions in every state. These unions resist reforms and place teacher's needs and wants ahead of the students. End it!

Ban public sector unions at the Federal and Local levels. Pass a nationwide "right-to-work" law to make it the law of the land. Also, Repeal Bacon Davis act which jacks up costs of public projects and is tantamount to extortion of taxpayers. 

Friday, August 14, 2015

US Needs Alternative High School For Drop-Outs

Black and Hispanic births are already the majority of births in this country. The US is on a path to have a white minority by 2040. But more than half of minority kids can't or don't graduate our current "academic" focused high schools. Where this is the case, maybe we need an alternative of teaching them practical job skills and life skills in addition to basic reading, writing and arithmetic.

Currently, kids that drop-out of school have very few options in the Obama economy. Some 37% of black kids who drop-out are in prison for instance. Military service becomes an option, but most of these kids couldn't pass a drug test.

We need to create a "vocational" high school path for those young people who can not graduate an "academic" high school. It should all be voluntary. Ideally the vocational option might even appeal to young people who are doing fine in our "regular" high schools, as currently defined but want a different path in life.

It's time to acknowledge that up to 50 to 60% of Blacks and Hispanics don't have the intellectual capability and discipline to graduate from "academic" US high schools, we need alternate paths for these young people who are destined to drop out.  And standardized tests predict this result well.

An alternative high school would still teach basic reading, writing and arithmetic but also vocational related skills. Such vocational skills might include bookkeeping, secretarial, plumbing, electrician, auto mechanics, auto body repair, carpentry, wood working, house painting, culinary skills, secretarial skills, basic entrepreneurship, proficiency in Microsoft programs such as Word, Excel, tax preparation and travel agency for example. But it could also include arts such as visual arts, silkscreen printing, painting, dance, singing, or playing musical instruments, Vocational training could include apprenticeships with local businesses.

Maybe the vocational alternative becomes an option after 1 or 2 years of "academic" high school when it becomes fairly clear that students are not going to graduate despite good attendance. If kids are truant or show no interest, even after trying the "vocational" alternative, then they should be sent home or to a 3rd option: bootcamp.

Many minority kids have discipline problems due to little or no parenting and could benefit from a "bootcamp" experience that is a 3rd alternative to conventional or vocational high schools. It might resemble military bootcamp.  After all, the military is expert at transforming young people in bootcamp -- giving them discipline and training which changes their lives. Many of these minorities have little discipline, no experience of accomplishing anything, no pride or self-esteem. Bootcamp works.  This could be the most important idea of all.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Democrats Have Shifted Hard Left Since JFK

It's interesting that Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed Socialist, is way ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary polls. Sanders is very far Left on the political spectrum. Predictably he's in favor of big taxes, big government and even bigger spending. The rise of an avowed Socialist on the Democratic primary shows how far Left the Democrats have shifted in recent years. Too bad Socialism is proven failure nearly everywhere.

The difference between the Democratic and Republican party used to be small and both parties were relatively centrist. The US has been, and still is a center-right country -- centrist but leaning slightly to the right.

For example, JFK would be considered a solid conservative now in comparison to Obama Democrats as he was a supply-side tax cutter, a staunch foe of Communism and a big supporter of a strong military -- not unlike Ronald Reagan.

It was JFK that said that "a rising tide lifts all boats" meaning that general economic prosperity helps everyone. This, of course, is true. But Obama Democrats, in a denial of the obvious, would derisively mock he idea as just more tired "trickle down," and "we've tried that before and it didn't work" as typically false narratives. (Instead, it is Obama Democrat's big government welfare state that is the most pathetic trickle-down idea of them all as welfare just helps people remain comfortable in their poverty.)

JFK's acknowlegement that a rising tide that lifts all boats was not a promise of income equality. That can never be guaranteed without hurting everyone. Communist and hard Left Socialist nations "solve" the inequality problem by manipulating and mandating similar wages for most people. But those "equalized" wages are very, very low and get lower over time due to inflation. Look at Cuba. Doctors make $68 per month! In reality, Leftism is a recipe for poverty for the masses. But those connected to the top bureaucrats, and the top bureaucrats themselves, live a high life of luxury and decidedly unequal income. Everyone else is impoverished and have nothing to look forward to, but the ruling elite and their entourage live a life of wealth and privilege. How about that for equality??

Interestingly, our country's movement toward more big government is already unfairly rewarding those that are connected to the powerful. Corporate donors to the Democratic party could "buy" relief from ObamaCare provisions for example. Those numbers in the 1000s. Seven out of the ten most wealthy counties in the country are located adjacent to Washington DC, showing how people are unfairly benefiting from government "connections." DC is a feeding trough for lobbyists, lawyers and other sycophants. Working for the Federal government itself is now a hugely rewarding as pay and benefits are now over 40% higher than similar jobs in private enterprise.

JFK also called for income tax cuts across the board to "improve" tax revenues. This was Reagan's mantra in 1980 and it worked in both cases. Because it conflicts with their failed ideologies, Obama Democrats refuse to accept the fact that lower taxes bring more prosperity, growth and improved tax revenues. But it is true and shows this hard shift to the Left by Obama Democrats.

With the "leadership" of Obama, the grand old Democratic party of JFK and Truman has devolved into the party of irresponsible people FOR irresponsible people.  Now the Democratic party is the party of ever more Government regulation and intrusion, more taxes, even more spending, and endless deficits. Together these smother the economy. They like this because poor economic performance gives them excuses for yet more government intervention!

The Obama Democrats are the party of endless deficits and debt, burdening the next generation with huge debt, shameless lying and smearing the opposition, demonizing and attacking the prosperous and anyone who happens to disagree with them, unlimited giveaways, "something-for-nothing," unlimited amnesty and forgiveness for the most irresponsible part of the country.  They are now the party that ignores the Constitution and Congress, ignoring and abusing immigration laws thereby facilitating the unlimited immigration of huge numbers of low and no-skill Central Americans -- all for political "gain," no budgeting, no effective gov't oversight or managing, killing the unborn, and food stamps for all. All of this is paid for with other people's money, or worse, paid with "printed" money. Add debasement of the currency to the Democrat's "credentials."

With Obama Democrats there are no consequences, no accountability, no apologies, no humility, nothing but failure and flops -- all covered-up by lies, phony excuses and "spin."  We are surrounded by big government failures: ObamaCare is hurting more people than helping, the VA is killing people and is a cost disaster which shows the failure of socialized medicine, Amtrak kills people and only survives only on government welfare, $8 Trillion of new debt in just 7 years with nothing to show for it, ineptitude and weakness in foreign policy and complete anarchy at the border.  What a sad day for America! Never before have the Democrats deserved to be more punished severely in the polls.  Democrats used to be a great political party that has gone wildly astray under Barack Obama.  

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Fast Collapse or Slow? I Think Fast

Back in 2008, in the aftermath of a mortgage security meltdown there were so much distrust among banks that letters of credit and "eurodollars"liquidity -- the entire basis of payment for international trade, were refused for a month or so. International trade came to a halt. Yes, governments stepped in to backstop banks (sometimes whether they wanted it or not). Eventually, that situation eased.

But a similar, but more lasting ‘sudden stop’ might happen again and the drastic disruption to global trade and world supply chains (including food supplies) could be a basis for a rapid and prolonged collapse of the world economy.

I've written before that the collapse of commodity and oil prices along with high levels of debt might put the global economy at risk of collapse.

One problem is that we've reached "peak-cheap-oil." This means that the marginal cost of oil is so high now that when additional barrels of oil are demanded -- as is the case when the economy grows -- oil prices rise so quickly that it hurts consumer incomes and puts the economy in recession. That happened in 2008 when oil prices hit $140 per barrel. Consumers found their budgets so pinched that many stopped paying their mortgages. Mortgage debt stress morphed into a financial crisis and deep recession. Oil prices hit $108 in 2014 and it's causing a slower economy in 2015 as health care insurance and rents rise while wages are stagnant or falling. Slower growth is why oil prices (and all other commodity prices) are now dropping. Note the oil price that causes consumer retrenchment is dropping. $70 dollar oil in 2016 may be a limit.

Today, we literally can't afford high oil costs. If the economy can no longer afford high oil prices, then the economy can't grow! (because growth causes high prices!)

Low and falling oil and commodity prices are hurting all of the commodity producing countries putting them in recession and lowering their demand for our products. Sure enough, US exports are declining which means lower GDP. Chinese exports are declining. World trade is declining. High levels of debt in commodity producing countries may face defaults. Entire countries are facing default including Venezuela, Russia, Egypt and Ukraine. Some energy companies will likely face defaults.

And low oil prices hurt employment in the US oil and gas industry which lowers aggregate consumer income. US oil and gas was one of the few industries in this country providing strong employment growth and high wages. Now, that's gone. All of this is the stuff of recession.

Furthermore, the world has reached "peak debt." This means that we've basically reached the end of debt's marginal utility, meaning the amount of growth per unit of debt has declined to nearly nothing. I call it "debt saturation." It's true here and even true in China now, as their debt levels have skyrocketed since 2008. See my blog "More Debt Won't Work; Charts to Prove It."

China's economy has dramatically slowed it's debt spending as debt levels have reached historically unsustainable levels normally associated with financial crises. They "saved" the world economy in 2008 with massive projects funded by debt.  But now, the utility of debt has collapsed there too. The slowing Chinese economy is also causing all world commodity prices to collapse. Peak debt has come to China too.

And we've also reached the end of falling interest rates. Ever since 1982,  we've enjoyed a 33 year period of ever lower interest rates which has put the "wind at the back" of the economy for all that time. Now we're at zero. Most of the world is at zero. They can't go lower. Not only are rates not dropping, they might be rising. Some commodity producing countries are raising rates to defend their currencies. And the US Federal Reserve is determined to raise rates this year. But note that even steady interest rates are a problem.

Also, we've even learned that money printing, or QE, no longer works. At first it worked, but now it doesn't. The Federal Reserve stopped doing it because it wasn't really working, except to boost assets that wealthy people own. And it's distortions are known to outweigh it's benefit.

If we've reached the end of affordable energy, the end of debt's marginal utility (here and in China), no further interest rate decreases, falling commodity prices, falling consumer income and no more QE, then we've reached the "end" of world GDP growth.

And if GDP growth is ending, then the debt accumulated to pay for that growth may will prove to be unsustainable. After all, debt is predicated on rising incomes (growth) that enable future payments that include interest payments. If the economy stagnates or shrinks, then the debt with interest can't be serviced. You're seeing that in Greece and now Puerto Rico. You're seeing that in commodity producing countries and commodity producing companies. There will likely be significant defaults in energy and certain sovereign debts. These defaults will slow the economy further. More slowing causes more defaults, and on and on. This is called a depression.

What that means is that the debt crisis in 2008 was likely a prelude to more debt trouble -- even massive defaults -- in the years ahead. It might even be a prolonged economic Depression. Why prolonged? Because we no tools that works to counter it!!

So, when debt defaults create another financial crisis, it may be the "blow-ups" of the huge derivatives market that become the new crisis. An "accident" in derivatives related to commodities or the debt of commodity-producing or other countries may become the problem. It wouldn't take much to put bank's solvency in question, especially in Europe. Banks there (still) have low levels of capital. The sheer size in dollar terms of these derivatives and the size of losses may dwarf what governments might be able to do to reassure markets. In other words, a panic may not be halted. The safety of banks may again be questioned and another sudden halt of trade of all types (loss of faith in letters of credit like 2008) could happen. This time, the sudden stop of international trade and a failure of global supply chains might be prolonged as government's won't be able to cover bank losses. This scenario represents a fast collapse. This is just one scenario that could result from credit distress.

During the next recession, every central bank in the world would resort to "printing money" and buy up distressed debts, broken derivatives and fund government spending even when tax revenues crash. I could see the US running a $3 trillion annual deficit monetized by the central bank (the CB buys that debt). But maintaining government and government beneficiary spending while the global supply chain is compromised might create a rapid inflation when the supply of goods is curtailed.  If goods aren't available due to lack of credit to fund trade, and people find themselves with money the government sends them, then prices could rise rapidly. Money could become "funny money"as what it can purchase declines. This is called hyperinflation. You have this situation today in Venezuela.

If I'm right, we're facing falling world trade, recession, defaults, crisis, depression, wild money printing, hyperinflation and finally collapse (in that order). Get ready for nationalization of banks, more gov’t control and totalitarian methods employed to prolong a new but much lower level of normal that could last decades. No wonder all the movies set in the future feature dystopia. Does art imitate life? Or does life imitate art?

Monday, August 10, 2015

Sandra Bland Had Many Run-ins With Police; Family Couldn't Afford $500 Bail?

There are plenty of recent cases where black persons get stopped by police (usually by doing something wrong, stupid or criminal) and they end up causing huge problems for themselves. Then they blame others for the problems that they themselves create.

A great example is Sandra Bland, a black woman, who was stopped outside of Houston for a very minor infraction of not signaling for a lane change. Sandra, like many entitled blacks with a "chip on their shoulder," ended up giving the officer "attitude," challenged the officer and finally resisted officer commands. She thought she was being smart to challenge the authority of the officer. Anyway, the cop was very short tempered and ordered her out of the car and arrested her.

Note to black people: You don't talk back, disrespect, resist or disobey the police and expect a happy outcome! What could be more obvious!  Everyone knows that except many entitled and/or stupid black people. 

Sandra Bland ended up in jail for three days, then she sadly killed herself. Now her family is predictably crying "racism" and hiring attorneys. But when asked why they didn't post bail to get her out of jail right away, the family blamed some "communication problem" then abruptly left the media circus news conference. The family couldn't come up with $500 to bail her out??

Oh, there was a phone in her cell and was allowed 5 calls, so she could have called people. But maybe she had already used up the goodwill of friends for her previous trouble? Or maybe the family really didn't care since she had been in trouble frequently?

You see, Sandra Bland had a long history of traffic stops and run-ins with police in Chicago. According to NBC5, she she owed a total of $7,579.00 in court fines resulting from five traffic stops in various Chicago suburbs (including a DUI), and she had been cited several times for her failure to pay those fines. She had at least 10 encounters herself with police in both Illinois and Texas in past years. The words "Failure to comply" was frequently cited by officials and police.

She apparently had mental problems as she tried to kill herself in 2014. Her family claims they know nothing about that. (Liars!) Her autopsy showed that she had considerable levels of marijuana in her system and that she had been self-mutilating (cutting) herself. What a mess! It really is sad.

All this is exposed by a simple and random traffic stop.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Entitled Black Actress Fails to Apologize to Police

I'm reading in Hot Air that Daniele Watts, a black actress from 'Django Unchained" has fallen back in trouble with authorities after being arrested a year ago for public sex and failing to comply with officers order to produce identification. She was briefly detained and released. She made a lot of noise that she was racially profiled and other such crap. Naturally she calls and involves civil rights activists, race baiters and lawyers. Once finding out the real story, even the civil rights people left town and told her to apologize.

The case ended up in front of a judge and a plea bargain was taken which, in part, required that she write an apology to the police for her lies and the difficulties that she caused. Now, the judge has rejected her apology letter for being inadequate.

Here's her "apology" letter from Hot Air which shows that she's learned nothing (of course), that she isn't sorry, and shows that she's still got that entitled black "chip" on her shoulder:
“Looking on the brighter side, we do believe that the public discourse that surrounded our encounter was beneficial as it provided an opportunity for the public to discuss, and more deeply understand, the ‘taboo’ subject of interracial relationships,” the letter said…
“Sgt. Parker, when you said sarcastically, ‘Thank you for bringing up the race card. I never hear that,’ I felt provoked because I had previously encountered many disheartening experiences related to ‘being black’ both in my personal life, and as reflected in society overall. Your willingness to dismiss my experience with sarcasm was hurtful, and caused me to respond defensively,” she said.
She is one stupid cunt. She is incapable of learning anything. And yes, it reinforces a racial stereotype that black people are very ignorant, they blame other people for their problems and have problems with authority. I'm delighted that the judge rejected her attempt to "lecture" the police when SHE caused the problem. It's obvious that she needs a good spanking from her father. But wait, there's the problem, there's never any daddies around to help raise their offspring! Instead that job apparently has to be filled by a judge.

Saturday, August 8, 2015

Chris Rock Explains To Black People How Not to Get Your Ass Kicked

In a funny but largely true video, Chris Rock explains what most white people know about dealing with the police but a lot of black persons don't get: be polite, obey the law and the officer, and shut up!  Apparently there are no parents (certainly too few daddies) around to teach black children important lessons??  Or they are too stupid to "get it"? (Here's the link)

Anyway, it's a great video and pretty good advice too!

My Defensive Investment Portfolio

Since I think the stock market is well overvalued, high yield credit is starting to show distress and that we're in an unfavorable seasonal period for equities, my portfolio is defensively positioned and mostly in bonds, preferred shares, cash and some equities.  I'm waiting for a buying opportunity to buy high quality dividend growth stocks in lieu of Treasuries and Preferred Shares.  Of the invested money, my average yield is 5%.  Since I have 22% in cash, my overall yield is a bit over 4%.

Here's my current allocation:

Floating/ST Bonds/Bank Loans2.19%
Preferred Stocks11.65%
Treasury Bonds 20+ Years9.42%
Muni Bond Funds32.45%
Corp Bond Funds0.57%

Of the stock portion of my portfolio, here is my current allocation:

Consumer Discretionary0.00%
Electric Utilities3.30%
Gas Dist Utilities0.95%
Int'l stocks (Germany and Japan)2.27%

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Black Public Defender Perfectly Describes US Black Cultural Collapse

In my blog, I try to counter rampant political correctness in regard to the appalling state of US Black culture. Liberal media tries to paint a happy picture. And for many Blacks in the US, it is a happy picture (thankfully). But even the successful and responsible blacks can be harmed and victimized by the criminality and violence of the bottom 50%.

I write this blog today as I read about how violent crime has reached a 50 year high in Baltimore in recent months. It's a sad tale of how black people are destroying yet another American city. But I had to read that from a "conservative" website as mainstream media avoid such stories. This isn't the first story of ruin. Black people and the Democratic Party ruined Detroit too. And it's happening in other cities too, all of them mostly black. Check out my recent blog called "US Black Culture In Collapse."

Below I've reposted the confessions of a black public defender from Allen West's website. This lawyer, who self-identifies as Liberal, perfectly describes the complete collapse of a big portion of black culture in this country. And he also correctly points out that the Liberal Media protects and intentionally doesn't report the true state of black "culture."

Liberalism is all about denial of reality and responsibility. And it's black people who remain the most in denial.They will never see that the causes of black cultural collapse are the persistent giveaways, handouts and "programs" associated with the "war on poverty" starting in the 1960s. They literally can't see it.  For example, much of the poverty and criminality in that culture and described below has it's roots in the collapse of the black family, where 72% of black kids born today are without a father -- up from 16% in the 1960s (before the giveaways that started as part of the "war on poverty.")

Meanwhile, every night I see a parade of blacks caught by security or surveillance cameras committing nearly all the crimes in my city -- day in and day out. The newsreaders NEVER mention the race of the perpetrator.

Now, the public defender's confessions from Allen West's website:

"I am a public defender in a large southern metropolitan area. Fewer than ten percent of the people in the area I serve are black but over 90 per cent of my clients are black. The remaining ten percent are mainly Hispanics but there are a few whites.

I have explanation for why this is, but crime has racial patterns. Hispanics usually commit two kinds of crime: sexual assault on children and driving under the influence. Blacks commit many violent crimes but very few sex crimes. The handful of whites I see commit all kinds of crimes. In my many years as a public defender I have represented only three Asians, and one was half black.

As a young lawyer, I believed the official story that blacks are law abiding, intelligent, family-oriented people, but are so poor they must turn to crime to survive. Actual black behavior was a shock to me.

The media invariably sugarcoat black behavior. Even the news reports of the very crimes I dealt with in court were slanted. Television news intentionally leaves out unflattering facts about the accused, and sometimes omits names that are obviously black. All this rocked my liberal, tolerant beliefs, but it took me years to set aside my illusions and accept the reality of what I see every day. I have now served thousands of blacks and their families, protecting their rights and defending them in court. What follow are my observations.

Although blacks are only a small percentage of our community, the courthouse is filled with them: the halls and gallery benches are overflowing with black defendants, families, and crime victims. Most whites with business in court arrive quietly, dress appropriately, and keep their heads down. They get in and get out–if they can–as fast as they can. For blacks, the courthouse is like a carnival. They all seem to know each other: hundreds and hundreds each day, gossiping, laughing loudly, waving, and crowding the halls.

When I am appointed to represent a client I introduce myself and explain that I am his lawyer. I explain the court process and my role in it, and I ask the client some basic questions about himself. At this stage, I can tell with great accuracy how people will react. Hispanics are extremely polite and deferential. An Hispanic will never call me by my first name and will answer my questions directly and with appropriate respect for my position. Whites are similarly respectful.

A black man will never call me Mr. Smith; I am always “Mike.” It is not unusual for a 19-year-old black to refer to me as “dog.” A black may mumble complaints about everything I say, and roll his eyes when I politely interrupt so I can continue with my explanation. Also, everything I say to blacks must be at about the third-grade level. If I slip and use adult language, they get angry because they think I am flaunting my superiority.

At the early stages of a case, I explain the process to my clients. I often do not yet have the information in the police reports. Blacks are unable to understand that I do not yet have answers to all of their questions, but that I will by a certain date. They live in the here and the now and are unable to wait for anything. Usually, by the second meeting with the client I have most of the police reports and understand their case.

Unlike people of other races, blacks never see their lawyer as someone who is there to help them. I am a part of the system against which they are waging war. They often explode with anger at me and are quick to blame me for anything that goes wrong in their case.

Black men often try to trip me up and challenge my knowledge of the law or the facts of the case. I appreciate sincere questions about the elements of the offense or the sentencing guidelines, but blacks ask questions to test me. Unfortunately, they are almost always wrong in their reading, or understanding, of the law, and this can cause friction. I may repeatedly explain the law, and provide copies of the statute showing, for example, why my client must serve six years if convicted, but he continues to believe that a hand-written note from his “cellie” is controlling law.

The Risks of Trial

The Constitution allows a defendant to make three crucial decisions in his case. He decides whether to plea guilty or not guilty. He decides whether to have a bench trial or a jury trial. He decides whether he will testify or whether he will remain silent. A client who insists on testifying is almost always making a terrible mistake, but I cannot stop him.

Most blacks are unable to speak English well. They cannot conjugate verbs. They have a poor grasp of verb tenses. They have a limited vocabulary. They cannot speak without swearing. They often become hostile on the stand. Many, when they testify, show a complete lack of empathy and are unable to conceal a morality based on the satisfaction of immediate, base needs. This is a disaster, especially in a jury trial. Most jurors are white, and are appalled by the demeanor of uneducated, criminal blacks.

Prosecutors are delighted when a black defendant takes the stand. It is like shooting fish in a barrel. However, the defense usually gets to cross-examine the black victim, who is likely to make just as bad an impression on the stand as the defendant. This is an invaluable gift to the defense, because jurors may not convict a defendant—even if they think he is guilty—if they dislike the victim even more than they dislike the defendant.

Most criminal cases do not go to trial. Often the evidence against the accused is overwhelming, and the chances of conviction are high. The defendant is better off with a plea bargain: pleading guilty to a lesser charge and getting a lighter sentence.

The decision to plea to a lesser charge turns on the strength of the evidence. When blacks ask the ultimate question—”Will we win at trial?”—I tell them I cannot know, but I then describe the strengths and weaknesses of our case. The weaknesses are usually obvious: There are five eyewitnesses against you. Or, you made a confession to both the detective and your grandmother. They found you in possession of a pink cell phone with a case that has rhinestones spelling the name of the victim of the robbery. There is a video of the murderer wearing the same shirt you were wearing when you were arrested, which has the words “In Da Houz” on the back, not to mention you have the same “RIP Pookie 7/4/12” tattoo on your neck as the man in the video. Etc.

If you tell a black man that the evidence is very harmful to his case, he will blame you. “You ain’t workin’ fo’ me.” “It like you workin’ with da State.” Every public defender hears this. The more you try to explain the evidence to a black man, the angrier he gets. It is my firm belief many black are unable to discuss the evidence against them rationally because they cannot view things from the perspective of others. They simply cannot understand how the facts in the case will appear to a jury.

Saturday, August 1, 2015

Welcome to Planet Obama

Liberal Media Shove 'Black' Propaganda Down Your Throats

Neil deGrasse Tyson is a black astrophysicist by degree who has become a 'star' on television's 2nd rate reincarnation of TV series "Cosmos."  It's more than interesting that the network choose a black presenter when only about 2% of physical science PhDs in this country are African American

And he's not the only black man selected for a prominent role as a TV "expert" either.  Hakeem Oluseyi, a black astrophysicist, hosted 'Outrageous Acts of Science' and 'Alien Encounters' and "You Have Been Warned" on TV.

Tyson's and Oluseyi's promotion to prominent positions on TV are a clue to a wider effort by media to promote black persons as equal and high achieving -- a cultural "affirmative action" so to speak. Yeah, it's great that these men made it through graduate school, but media folks had to dig deep to find guy's like Tyson and Hakeem Oluseyi since there's so few.  Meanwhile there's 1000's of highly accomplished white astrophysicists.  

I don't have a beef with these two accomplished guys.  But why is the media trying so hard to shove things "black" down my throat?  And where's the Latinos?? 

Another example: Morgan Freeman is often cast as a scientific "expert" on TV shows even though he's strictly an actor with no scientific background.  Heck, Freeman also played a US President in Deep Impact.  Is this subtle "propaganda" by the big media companies?  Freeman played a scientific "expert" on the latest movie "Lucy." Do you see a pattern? 

Other Media Company Racial Bias

I believe that there is a subtle propaganda effort underway to promote black Americans in the court of public opinion, a sort of affirmative action program by the media outlets.  They do this, in part, because blacks reliably back Liberal (Democratic) positions at 95%.  Blacks are only 1/8th of the population but are often one of three, or one of four on "panels" on TV shows on MSNBC and CNN for instance.  It's subtle.  And those over-represented blacks reliably tout Democratic positions to the glee of the media outlets.  Another important question:  where are the Latinos on TV??  There are significantly more Latinos in this country than black but you don't see many on panels on CNN or MSNBC.

Another example of affirmative action by media outlets: everyone knows now that the elections of Obama were significantly due to Liberal media manipulation of public opinion in falsely painting Obama as a superior intellect with superior ideas.  It's completely untrue.  In fact, it could hardly be further from the truth.  Media supported him all along, pitched him 'softball' questions in interviews and supported the smearing of anything conservative or Republican.  The elections of Obama was a huge success for the Liberal media. But his election has turned out to be a big loss for this country and the entire world. Obama has proven to be a complete "empty suit" in regard to -- well -- just about everything. He's a charlatan -- an actor playing a President on TV.  Obama's presidency will prove to be a near disaster. 

Neil deGrasse Tyson Caught Promoting Falsehoods

Not surprisingly, it turns out that Tyson's sophistication has limits when it comes to politics.  Or maybe he's not sophisticated at all?  Recently, he's had to (reluctantly) apologize when a dogged commentator on the Federalist website called him out for inaccurate statements about George Bush in his public addresses.

From Rich Lowry at Newsmax, Tyson said, in numerous public addresses, that right after Sept. 11, Bush asserted the superiority of "we" to "they" — i.e., Muslim fundamentalists — by quoting the Bible for the proposition "Our God is the God who named the stars."  You see, Tyson wanted to paint himself as "sophisticated" and denigrate Bush as being a moron by noting that 2/3rds of the stars have Arabic names.  But he is just dead wrong.  Bush never said such a thing.  In fact, Bush went out of his way to defend Islam after 9/11.  In short, `Tyson lied.

He finally and reluctantly "fessed up" to this falsehood only after being called out by Sean Davis at the Federalist.  His reluctant and half-hearted rationalizations were particularly annoying.  He has shown himself to be stubborn in his ignorance despite his advanced education. Does that sound like another familiar (black) occupant of the White House?

Like Tyson, Obama has proven to be arrogant, stubborn and wrong.  Like Tyson, Obama can not say "I'm sorry."   At least Tyson mainly sticks to scientific issues, but tows a Liberal line in areas of politics and global warming.  That's why he's on TV!  

And media manipulation is substantially why we have to put up with Obama's staggering incompetence.

Other Media Pro-Black Racial Bias

You saw pro-black media bias again with Michael Brown coverage in Ferguson following the same meme as Trayvon Martin in Florida.  Both were portrayed as demur, innocent, baby-faced angels with no basis in fact.   It turns out that Trayvon might have been an angel compared to thug Brown. 

The Trayvon Martin "controversy" was silenced by 6 thoughtful white women who sent the race baiters packing (except for racist Holder who vowed further Federal prosecution of Zimmerman).

The whole Ferguson story also fell apart with egg on every black leader's face, including Holder and Obama.  (Gee, what's new?)  The media and race-baiters fell silent when details emerged that Michael Brown and Dorian Johnson had just robbed a convenience store and roughed-up the clerk immediately prior to Brown attacking officer Wilson.  But ABC Nightly news continued the "Saint Michael" meme well past the revelations.  It became quickly clear that Brown was WAY out of control and officer Wilson clearly had to defend himself. 

All of this is an attempt to cover-up the fact we have a huge ongoing black crime wave primarily affecting other black citizens. Younger black men are committing crimes at 10 times the rate of whites and 7 times the rate of whites for all black men.  Black men are committing more than 50% violent and gun crimes despite being only 6% of the population.  Black men outnumber white men in prisons or 7 times higher rate than whites!  Black men are derelict dads too with some 80% of young black kids abandoned by their deadbeat dads.  And it didn't use to be that way.  But you'll never hear this reported anywhere in the liberal media.

Because of all of this media white-washing, no constructive conversations can be made, nothing constructive is done and the desperate collapse of black culture in this country continues unabated and unimproved.  Meanwhile we are forced to watch the Obama presidency collapse as well.