Thursday, October 29, 2015

Actual Climate Data Vs Climate Models

Below is graphical data showing measured global temperatures compared to various climate model predictions for the past 40 years.

The data shows that all of the climate models funded by the US government and UN are proven wrong. None of them were able to predict the recent 17 year long "pause" in global warming. See Figure 1. Because they're all wrong, the very expensive scientists and agencies sucking off of Uncle Sam's hind tit, are very nervous about their jobs and their funding. So, they're in full denial mode.

Agencies like NOAA and NASA are actively trying to cover-up the "inconvenient" truths by "adjusting" the raw climate data without adequate explanation and otherwise explain-away the fairly clear conclusions shown in the following graphs -- the earth's warming has stopped or nearly stopped since about 1997.  

For example, the NOAA has recently decided not to comply with a House subpoena for internal documents and communications regarding a recent "study" which conveniently "denies" this warming pause. What are they trying to hide??  But most everyone knows.  It is face-saving. Also, NO ONE is allowed to embarrass our "Dear Leader" who is wrong about everything-- Mr. Obama. NO ONE is allowed to say that the Emperor has no clothes!  The simple truth is that the NOAA and NASA are trying to be friendly with the Obama administration who are pushing all sorts of economy-killing measures in cahoots with the ludicrous UN. 

Professor Judith Curry from Georgia Tech, regarding the study says ‘This short paper is not adequate to explain the very large changes that have been made to the NOAA data set… while I’m sure this latest analysis from NOAA will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration [which is currently bent on using executive action to set unilateral emissions limits against the will of Congress], I don’t regard it as a particularly useful contribution to our scientific understanding of what is going on.’

Here's the data vs the models:

Figure 1 Global Temperatures Versus Various Climate Models. UAH are data from Univ.of Alabama Huntsville, RSS is satellite data. The other data is from Climate Models

Figure 2 IPCC Climate Model Predictions Versus Recent Measurements

Figure 3
Upper Troposphere Temperatures Were "Supposed" to Rise and Create a Runaway Temperature Scenario. The Earth's oceans were predicted to "boil." There is no evidence of that "theory."

I support continued research in the area of "climate change." It would be incredibly foolish to NOT study these issues. I also call on our nation's scientists, our nuclear industry and our government to re-invigorate our research and to test commercially the intrinsically-safe Molten Salt Thorium reactors as a path forward since we have decades of Thorium fuel already stock-piled.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Netanyahu Reminds World: Arab Muslims Sat at Right Hand of Hitler

In the embedded video (also found here),  Netanyahu reminds the world that the Arab Muslims sat at the right hand of Hitler.  He implies correctly that "Palestinians" are basically Nazis.  Some quibble with his claim the Arab Muslims gave Hitler the idea of burning the Jews. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not. The sure thing is that Arab Muslims were staunchly allied with Hitler and are still committed to Hitler's goal of eradicating Jews.  It's shameful and insane that much of the world is sympathetic not to Israel but to these new Nazis!

The video reminds people that Arab Muslims have a long history of killing Jews dating back to the 1920s. And in modern history, for at least the past 100 years, Arab Muslims have rejected any and every opportunity to make peace with Israel and establish their own country. Those that try to make peace with Israel, like Anwar Sadat, are murdered. Sounds like Nazi fascism to me.

Muslims today are the new Nazis: violent, fascist, supremacist, and Jew-hating. And they blame others (Jews) for their own problems.  Not to disparage every Muslim, I'm sure that there were many "nice" people in the Nazi party too. But like Nazis, nearly every Muslim dislikes/hates Jews and wishes them harm or death to them or Israel.  And many "modern" Muslims support violent methods (bombings, etc) to "defend" or promote Islamic aims and Sharia law.  Muslims still cling to a dream of an Islamic empire (caliphate) and some are pursuing this dream with shocking violence.

This is what evil looks like: people that can't change or adjust their attitudes or thinking even in light of new or evolving evidence and where their petrified thinking causes misery, death and unhappiness in persons around them.  Arab dictators who continue to support killing Jews, destroying Israel, those who kill their own people and who never change are evil. Bashar Al-Assad is evil. He's killed some 250,000 of his own people in a massive genocide. Putin, who wants to bring back the evil USSR and is backing Assad and killing even more Syrians is evil. The Mullahs in Iran are evil. the Castros are evil. Stalin was evil. To some extent, even Obama, who is so shockingly blind and willfully ignorant of facts and history and who never learns anything or accepts new evidence that he is wrong, is evil. Evil people have a chronic inability to adjust, learn and change in light of new evidence and bring suffering to people. Even entire populations, like the Palestinians, allow themselves to become evil.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Trump and Thailand Are Right on Immigration

Trump has flat-out said that the illegals in this country must leave and apply for 'legal' readmission. This is considered shocking in this country but it's just the norm for every other country in the world. I can't go to a single country in the world and arrive without a visa (or get a stamp) or overstay my visa. And if my visa expires or I overstay, I must leave and come back with a visa renewal.

Trump also correctly says that we are either a country or not a country -- referring to the fact that we don't have a country if we have no borders. He should also say that we are either a country of law and order or we're a country of chaos and lawlessness. Under Obama, we are increasingly a country of chaos and lawlessness. This can not stand. Our current lax immigration enforcement can not stand.

We can't have an unenforced open border when we have a welfare state, otherwise we're just a free money, free-stuff chump.  Of course, that's exactly what we are because the Democrats are desperately seeking new low-information voters to extend their dominance in politics. And they pay for all of this 'free stuff' with other people's money or borrow it from the Chinese (and give the bill to the next generation).  Wonderful people are Democrats.

Democrats are all about buying votes. They are plotting to let illegals vote right now by opposing any common sense measure such as asking for ID and evidence of citizenship or eligibility.  Anyone supporting common sense voter ID rules is now labeled racist by Democrats. You're a racist if you have any common sense.

But this is just the start. We need to radically improve our tracking of all immigrants and enforce compliance with our rules and deadlines. Nearly all other countries do so! That we can't (or haven't) is shameful. We're a country where nothing works anymore. Trump is right. We are ruled by "very, very stupid people."

There is no country in the world to where I can travel and overstay my visa and expect there NOT to be a big problem. I've spent plenty of time in Thailand as a tourist and as a retiree. I can't stay there as an "illegal" without a big problem! Thailand manages it's immigration law with far more competence than the so-called '1st world' US.  For example, if I overstay my visa there, I am subject to a fine of $15 per day for each day that I stay on. There is 100% chance of this fine being enforced.  They will stamp my passport "Overstay" and if I do it again, my ability to re-enter Thailand may be in doubt.

Anyone staying in Thailand on an extended visa, such as retirees, must report to immigration every 3 months and report their current address and contact information. If I fail to do this, there will be big fines and I could reasonably expect a visit from the local police if I don't show up.  This is what America should adopt. It's a sad commentary when we need to copy "lowly" Thailand to properly enforce our immigration law and order.

Since Thailand has been one of the few prosperous countries in it's region, it has an immigration problem where other Asians are coming in and trying to find work. Unlike the US, they don't have a bullshit PC problem with regard to the involvement of local police to enforce immigration. There, local police will sweep through marketplaces and ask workers for Thai national IDs. If you don't have your ID, that's fine, but they will return the next day to ask for it.  Any suggestion, in this country, of  local police verifying immigration status is greeted with howls of protests and cries of "racism" by Democrats in Congress, the nation and in "sanctuary" cities.

Since we don't have a national ID card, every driver's license in this country should indicate citizenship status. In every traffic stop or encounter with local police should result in local police to check for compliance with visa rules. Like Thailand, if you don't have evidence that you are in compliance, you should be allowed to produce it the following day at a local police station. And if you don't show up, then local police (or ICE) should follow up to find and potentially deport that person. This is called "law and order."  I know we haven't seen it in a long time but this is what it looks like.

We need Federal laws to explicitly outlaw "sanctuary cities" to require jail time for the entire city leadership if they fail to comply with such a law.  We are either a country of law and order or we're a country of lawlessness and chaos. You choose.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman Brothers?

Today, Deutsche Bank announced some $7 billion loss for it's 3rd quarter and announced that their dividend will likely be suspended.  In June, the bank had their debt downgraded to BBB+ or just 3 notches above junk.

There is some concern that DB is the next Lehman. Maybe it's worse!  Lehman's credit rating was AA- at the time it was beginning to circle down the drain.  It's fall was very quick. In June 9, 2008, Lehman's credit rating was reduced to AA- minus with negative outlook.  Just 3 months later, Lehman declared bankruptcy and shook the entire foundation of the world's finances. Could we be 3 months from another such event?

The 2nd Great Depression was beginning with the Lehman bankruptcy but was ultimately halted or delayed by eliminating "mark-to-market" accounting for banks. This allowed banks to basically lie about their financial condition. This state of affairs continues to this day. Uncertainty about bank's financial conditions could therefore begin again.  It might have already started as the TED spread is rising recently (a measure of interbank lending rate relative to treasury bills).

From ZeroHedge, here's a chronology of the events at DB during the past 15 months that is very worrisome:
  • In April of 2014, Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it’s capital structure. Why?
  • 1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount. Why again? It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media. The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity. Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
  • Fast forwarding to March of this year: Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry’s “stress tests” and is given a stern warning to shore up it’s capital structure.
  • In April, Deutsche Bank confirms it’s agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR. The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ. (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime).
  • In May, one of Deutsche Bank’s CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authorityby the board of directors. We guess that this is a “crisis move”. In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
  • June 5: Greece misses it’s payment to the IMF. The risk of default across all of it’s debt is now considered acute. This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
  • June 6/7: (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank’s two CEO’s announce their surprise departure from the company. (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers). Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June. J├╝rgen Fitschen will step down next May.
  • June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+ Just three notches above “junk”. (Incidentally, BBB+ is even lower than Lehman’s downgrade – which preceded it’s collapse by just 3 months)"

Scary, huh?  Was the 2nd Great Depression just delayed?