Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Buy Low and Sell High; Time to Sell Stocks?

You agree with the adage "buy low and sell high" right?   Well, don't forget to sell.  US stocks are expensive and current valuations have rarely been higher. 

When the market PE reaches 20, it's time to sell.  That's where we are today.  Have a look at the following chart from Acting Man blog:

Stock market valuations have only been higher about 2% of the time during last 90 years.   The odds are in favor of the house.  Be forewarned.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Collapse Of Black Families, Violence and Poverty

From Walter Williams at Townhall:
The poverty rate among blacks is 36 percent. Most black poverty is found in female-headed households. The poverty rate among black married couples has been in single digits since 1994 and is about 8 percent today. The black illegitimacy rate is 75 percent, and in some cities, it's 90 percent. But if that's a legacy of slavery, it must have skipped several generations, because in the 1940s, unwed births hovered around 14 percent.
 Along with the decline of the black family comes anti-social behavior, manifested by high crime rates. Each year, roughly 7,000 blacks are murdered (out of a total of about 14,000 victims). Ninety-four percent of the time, the murderer is another black person. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, between 1976 and 2011, there were 279,384 black murder victims. Using the 94 percent figure means that 262,621 were murdered by other blacks. Though blacks are 13 percent of the nation's population, they account for more than 50 percent of homicide victims. Nationally, the black homicide victimization rate is six times that of whites, and in some cities, it's 22 times that of whites.
There is little intelligent dialogue anywhere in the media to discuss what it might take to put black families back together.  In lieu of intelligent dialogue, black "leaders" only recite tired grievances that aren't true anymore.  The black family was intact in 1960.  The collapse of black families is a recent phenomena dating from the "Great Society" and War on Poverty days of the Johnson administration. After $21 Trillion in income support (support that was supposed to be temporary), the war on poverty hasn't help reduce poverty.  Take for example the housing projects that concentrated blacks within inner cities. Those blacks, having no ownership pride in that housing, destroy these properties and neighborhoods and the resulting decay caused "white flight" and business flight.  Business flight in turn means no employment opportunities. 

Also, when Liberals give more aid to single mothers because they are single, it results in more single mothers!  Or, if you give credits based on the number of children rather than the presence of a father, you get children without fathers.  The debate becomes: how to give aid to married couples to discourage single status?

For solutions, how about parallel vocational high schools to teach basic reading, arithmetic and writing but also job skills for those not on the college path?  This last concept could be expanded to include programs in arts; writing, performing arts, visual arts, and music.

Speaking of education, how about eliminating public unions--especially teacher unions that end up harming minorities the worst.  How do I know this?  Read about the court in California striking down union tenure policies for hurting minorities the most:
 A California judge ruled Tuesday that teacher tenure laws deprived students of their right to an education under the State Constitution and violated their civil rights. The decision hands teachers’ unions a major defeat in a landmark case, one that could radically alter how California teachers are hired and fired and prompt challenges to tenure laws in other states.
 “Substantial evidence presented makes it clear to this court that the challenged statutes disproportionately affect poor and/or minority students,” Judge Rolf M. Treu of Los Angeles Superior Court wrote in the ruling. “The evidence is compelling. Indeed, it shocks the conscience.”
Thirdly, end the criminalization of marijuana and release all the young (black) men in prison for possession and related non-violent crimes. That incarceration is making hard core criminals out of these young men.  Lastly, eliminate the Federal minimum wage guidance altogether.  The government needs to get out of the wage setting business including repealing the Bacon Davis Act which shuts out many workers in favor of union-only work. The higher the minimum wage, the less jobs exist for entry level young people.  And those entry level jobs are key in gaining skill and experience.  Marco Rubio has proposed a wage subsidy instead of a minimum wage and to replace the Earned Income Tax Credit idea.

A decent article in The Federalist gives some good advice to helping minorities and stopping the black cultural collapse.  But don't expect Democrats to help black people because they would oppose much of the ideas that would help.  This is because the answers that address collapsing families is 1) improve education by promoting LESS unionism in public schools (at least), 2) improve the economy to repatriate manufacturing by reforming and lowering corporate taxes, by less regulation and less big gov't.  Do these sound like Democratic policies?  3) Get the government out of the wage setting business especially the prescription of a too-high minimum wage for inner cities, 4) more local micro-financing (and training) to help people set-up small market places and food courts, etc, and 5) end the drug war against marijuana and free associated prisoners. 

Friday, September 12, 2014

One Chart to Explain Our Broken Health Care System

In my blog Obama Doubles Down on a Broken System,  I suggest that we have high medical cost inflation because everyone in the medical business is using other people's money.  Also, increasing government spending is the biggest driver of medical cost inflation because the government is completely insensitive to prices (but people are).   I said the following:
"Insurance money feels a lot like "free money" to both patients and medical businesses. Hospitals and doctors can literally never spend enough to insure the survival of everyone. It's no wonder medical cost inflation is pricing medical services out of reach! Eventually patients are priced out of the insurance market and can no longer afford coverage or medical services at all. This is where we are today.

So, most can agree that the system is broke because market and normal cost forces are not in play. I've made the argument in my blog that high deductible policies coupled with health savings plans put some consumer "skin in the game." You can understand this when you consider that the ultimate market pricing system would be medical care services are paid only by cash!"
Thailand has a cash-market medical business (not yet dominated by health insurance company spending or government spending) and their medical costs are from 5 to 10 times cheaper than the same services in the US.

Well, here's evidence of the trend that only worsens in the years ahead since the US government spending in the medical service market goes ever higher. See the following chart from David Stockman's Contra Corner:

Only lower government spending in the medical market and more consumer "skin in the game" (out of pocket spending) via high deductible policies and HSAs will reverse price inflation trends.  ObamaCare has and will further increase government spending and therefore increase prices.  We face a vicious (and upward) cost spiral with ObamaCare -- proving that everything said to promote the law is flawed and/or lies.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Obama in Denial About Islam

I never listen to a single word spoken by Obama, but it is reported (and confirmed by the text of his speech) that he said the following last night:
“Now let’s make two things clear: ISIL is not Islamic,” Obama said, speaking from the state floor of the White House residence. “No religion condones the killing of innocents, and the vast majority of ISIL’s victims have been Muslim.”
So, there you have in a nutshell one of Obama's many problems.  First, he's WRONG!  Will he claim that Al Qaeda is not Islamic?  How about Hamas?  How about the Taliban, Hezbollah, Boko Haram??

He is blind to the worldwide problem that is Islam.  He's blind to a lot of things.  He's basically a Muslim sympathizer. 

The so-called religion of peace is anything but.  Let's be clear, Islam is the only religion (ideology) in the world that prescribes violence against other people who are "unbelievers". There are some 109 verses prescribing violent "war" against those who oppose Islamic "rule."  In fact there are few counterbalancing views of tolerance of others in the Quran.  There's no "turn the other cheek" in Islam!

See here for a list of attacks by Muslim believers since September 11, 2001.  The Islam inspired death toll is up to nearly 24,000 people worldwide since Sept 11, 2001.

What's the point of continuing to pretend that Islam is a religion?  Islam is not a religion but a violent, fascist cult based on the teachings of a mentally ill, violent, murdering, pedophilic, misogynist named Muhammad.
Is it any wonder that Islam is one screwed-up "religion"?   It's a sad joke. 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Liberals Emotional, Unprincipled; Unfit to Govern

The difference between Conservatives and Liberals increasingly shows the contrast of emotional reacting vs rational thinking.  Think about it.  Liberals are mostly from the 'fuzzy' professions of art, journalism, acting, etc. Conservatives, for example, are found in the ranks of engineers and the business community. Nearly all of my engineering friends are conservative since we are all about rational analysis and a sharp focus on objective facts and figures. Liberals are found in the "fuzzy" artistic community. It's not surprising that Hollywood actors are nearly universally Liberal. And journalism is truly a "liberal arts" major. People of faith are conservative because they realize that Liberals are trying to substitute a religion of big government for a true religious faith (a la Communism). 

Liberals are much more volatile, emotional and even hysterical than Conservatives. This makes them unfit to govern.  A good perfect example comes just today as DNC chairwoman Deborah Wasserman Schultz went completely hysterical against mild-mannered Wisconsin governor Scott Walker.  From Townhall, she said:
"Scott Walker has given women the back of his hand. I know that is stark. I know that is direct. But that is reality." Wasserman Schultz added: "What Republican tea party extremists like Scott Walker are doing is they are grabbing us by the hair and pulling us back. It is not going to happen on our watch."
Bashing Walker is really hysterical. What did Walker ever do to Schultz?  Scott Walker is a gentlemen; a mild-mannered and rational governor who has well-managed his state government, balanced budgets and even lowered taxes in Wisconsin.  He is not controversial.  He's a competent governor who recently won a recall election vote with a higher margin than his first election results despite a Liberal smear campaign.  So, the people of Wisconsin have spoken an spoken loudly.  Walker's only problem is that he's a real threat to the Democrats in 2016.  

Oh, did I mention that Deborah Wasserman Schultz, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, is a professional artist?  (Look it up here)  Perfect!  Being an artist means that she's imminently qualified to define public policy objectives and economic strategies for our great nation!   Can you see why Democrats have run this country off the rails?  Obama never even had a job.

The real objective of the screeching, hysterical Democrats is to lie, obfuscate and falsely smear any solid Republican who might be a threat in the next election.  Remember how the liberal media obsessed about "bridgegate" in New Jersey -- all to implicate Chris Christie?  It was the top "news" on national media for weeks while the real and serious problems caused by Obama and the Democrats went to page 5!!   Now comes the ridiculous politically-motivated indictment of Rick Perry.  It's a complete joke! Even Liberal commentators agree that it's frivolous. The Democrats don't care whether anything is true or not.  They are going to smear by any measure because they know the compliant media will amplify things.  It's despicable.  It's all about dirty tricks.  Liberalism is only imposed by lies and tricks, since rational voters in the US will ultimately not choose hyperactive big government and government control on it's own.  Remember, big government is the Democrat's false idol.

More Examples of Hysterical and Emotional Democrats- Unfit to Govern

For another example of Liberal hysterical and irrational thinking, take global warming.  Liberals are screeching Malthusians and Chicken Little's when it comes to the relatively mild effects of global warming.  Their cries are all emotion and not based on facts.  In fact, they are thoroughly annoyed by "inconvenient facts" that contradict their collective hysteria.  Liberals are positively hyperventilating to enact big government carbon monitoring and taxation even though that wouldn't change ANYTHING except to make government bigger and harm the economy and job market.  They would rather ruin the economy based on their emotions rather than facts.  Liberals, as usual, don't know the key facts(s): that the amount of carbon dioxide emissions reductions required to halt the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere is so large (50%) that it's not possible and the cost to do so is impossibly high.  The cost to mitigate the relatively benign effects of warming are 10,000 times cheaper.

Look at the liberals screeching for gun control but ignore the facts about who commit gun crimes. They'd rather ignore the Constitution than face the REAL problem. The real problem is black men, at 6% of the population, who are committing the majority of gun crimes nationwide.  But radical political correctness, another characteristic of the current liberal crowd, prevents any mention of these "inconvenient" facts.    Black men are committing about 7,000 murders per year out of 14,000 total or more than 120 per week -- far eclipsing the number of headline massacres like Columbine.  Discussions of seizing guns from black men, are strictly verboten!  It might violate their civil rights?  What about the victim's rights?

Take a look at Liberal, Liberal media and black emotional response to Trayon Martin and Michael Brown shootings.  They jump to conclusions and wrong ones at that.  Blacks, who identify with Democratic party at a 95% rate, have proven to be emotional hotheads who would lynch any white police officer even reported of killing a black man -- regardless of facts or fault.  Complete lawlessness and hysteria were on display in Ferguson.  Then we find out that every black man involved in the Michael Brown shooting is a liar, thief or thug.  

Democrats Have Shifted Hard Left Since JFK -- Unfit to Govern

It didn't used to be this way. The difference between the Democratic and Republican party used to be very small and both parties were capable of governing. After all, it was JFK called on people to ask what they can do for their country, not what their country can do for them. JFK would be considered a solid conservative now as he was a supply-side tax cutter and staunch foe of Communism -- not unlike Ron Reagan.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Democrats Out of Touch With America; Punish Them in November

Obama and Democrats are out of touch with America.

This weekend, Biden tried to give a rousing speech to "take back our nation."  Huh?  The comment was in support of bashing the rich and promoting more unionism presumably to fire-up the Democratic union base.  Bashing of the rich by the rich is getting old and sounds ever more hollow.

And there's hardly any unionism left in the US private sector as union's have done more than their share in chasing US jobs away to other parts of the world.  And we wonder why the economy is crappy?  Union membership in the private sector is down to 11%.

The core of unionism is now in the public sector at some 40% and they sucking big time from the hind tit of the taxpayers.  From USA Today, federal employee total compensation has grown 36.9% since 2000 after adjusting for inflation, compared with 8.8% for private workers.  Every extra dollar given unionized government workers in either benefits or pay, compared to the private sector, is an extortion of the US taxpayer.   Government worker benefits are now much higher than the private sector.   Ban public unions!

Obama, Biden and the Democrats are way out of touch with the American people.

Regarding Unionism, Americans want to reverse it.  71% of Americans say they would vote for right-to-work laws if they had a vote, according to Gallup.   Yeah, it's time to take back our nation alright!

Obama's approval rating is holding steady at 40% but he is deeper underwater with Independents and Republicans.  A CNN poll in August revealed that 33% of people polled wanted Obama impeached.

Obama's inane strategy of ignoring the legislature is an affront to about 1/2 the nation represented by the Republican majority in the House.  He thinks that going to work?  He's insane and deserves impeachment based on impaired mental capacity!!  Yeah, and he's so brilliant.  My ass!

About 70% of the people in this country have routinely polled to disapprove of the direction of the country.  

Polls shows 61% of Americans disapprove of Obama's collapsing foreign policy.  Only 33% approve.  Duh, he's a frigging idiot!   The 33% that approve are either brain dead or mentally impaired!   Now you can see that 33% approval is really ZERO percent approval because that 33% is so stupid that their opinion is complete dog shit! 

Only 42% of Americans approve of Obama's handling of the economy. (So, that's about 11% approval since 33% is really 0%).   Six years after the bottom of the last recession, about 50% of Americans say that the US is still in recession.  Six years after Obama,  Gallup says that in August only 38% of Americans said the economy is getting better, while 56% said the economy is getting worse.

Obama and Democrats have (once again) proven themselves to be clueless on creating growth of any kind other than the growth of debt and taxes!  And yes, there's a connection between low growth and high debt and taxes!  But Democrats are immune from facts and the lessons of history.

From Daily Caller, "70 percent of independents and 92 percent of Republicans said in early August that “undocumented immigrants [are] a burden on the US economy,” according to the polls by Reuters and Ipsos."  Of course these people are a burden to our communities. They have little to offer, we don't have any/many low skilled jobs,  they won't pay taxes, they certainly can't afford our Obama-inflated medical costs.

As a retired American, I'm seriously considering moving to Mexico or Costa Rica to escape Obama's and Democrat's damage!   And I'm relatively well off!  And these people, who absolutely nothing, want to come here??  I'm considering retiring to a place like Guadalajara, Mexico because I don't want to pay for high medical insurance costs or the dramatically rising prices of food and rent caused by our foolish central bank hellbent on re-inflating old bubbles!

The President and Democrats have always been underwater in regard to ObamaCare.   54% disapprove of the law and only 40% approve.  ObamaCare is as unpopular as ever as it's caused healthcare costs to rocket higher -- putting healthcare out of reach for more Americans. With the government spending more for health care, and the government completely insensitive to prices, expect this increased marginal spending to inflate costs ever higher until the nation is bankrupt.  After all, we're told that the ObamaCare disaster can't be overturned, right?

Wrong!  Punish the arrogant fools!!  All of them!!