Sunday, October 13, 2019

An SOS from Sweden

The Globalist/Davos Crowd/Marxist agenda is clear and evident around the world. Like open borders in the US, Sweden and much of Europe is now overrun with low median IQ persons from the Middle East and North Africa. The regions where migrant are from are in a state of collapse because that's what happens when the median IQ of a population is 85 and below. It's the people, stupid! The entire continent of Africa is mired in poverty, oppression, crime, death, war and tyranny. It's only slightly better in South and Central America (median IQs of 80 to 89). In these populations, there are just not enough sophisticated, bright, intellectual opinion leaders that can call out the phony, corrupt socialist and tyrannical leadership who are voted-in and take control of the country. I describe this a cultural clash as being due to differences in median IQ.

Below is a letter of desperation from a man in Sweden sent to Martin Armstrong, who in turn posted it in his blog. It's the same story in Germany and the rest of the EU except for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, who refused the migrant invasion are now the subject of political retribution by Brussels.  Remember, no country was given a vote or a choice in policy. If you speak out against this policy, or site the obvious evidence of the utter failure of it, you will be arrested and charged with "hate speech." Welcome to Orwell's Europe.  

You're beginning to see a descent into 3rd world status of poverty, disorder, crime and chaos in California too as the Marxists invite low skill, low IQ, low to no education migrants into the state.  There are huge financial and social pressures building there, similar to the Swedish story below.  

We're inundated by the phony memes of our day, most often propagated by lower IQ minorities ("the Squad" Hispanics like Jim Acosta, Idiots of the Black Caucus). And no, we're not all the same. No, not all religions are the same. And no, not all races are equal. The White Northern Europeans have been in fact superior in nearly every way. You will be booted off of Facebook, Twitter or any college campus for uttering any of those words since the speech-oppressive culture described in Orwell's 1984 book has asserted itself, (especially in Europe).

Here's the SOS letter from Sweden to Martin Armstrong:
Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Please take a look at Sweden. I know you can not look at every single country but Sweden would be interesting since it is the country were socialism has gone farthest in the world and totally crazy. One of the most well-organized countries in the world with the oldest Central bank and well run global companies have turned into total chaos. Socialism has turned a peaceful country into a crime capital. Rapes are now among the highest per capita in the world. Robbery likewise. We are flooded with immigrants from MENA countries that have no skills. Many can’t even read. They live on welfare and get better paid than people working. Taxes are going through the roof. Police force under extreme pressure. Jails are overfull. Same with healthcare and education.
The municipals are bankrupt. They borrow via Kommunivest to meet the gigantic burden of immigrants. The loans go to welfare paychecks, not to investments. Kommuninvest issues international bonds and then lend to all municipals. International investors do not know how bad the financial situation is for Kommuninvest. It’s the Black Swedish Swan that is going to blow up soon. Mr. Hans Jensevik is the one person in Sweden that has worked with the municipals economy all his life. He is a very respected old-timer. He has even come out with a video warning international investors from buying Kommuninvest bonds!

Government debt is not catastrophic but the municipals are. The Government made the municipals take on the debt when the state unloaded immigrants in all our 290 municipals… Many municipals are now warning they are bankrupt and need emergency finance. So the Government is going to be forced to bail out the municipals very soon.

The state own media dominates TV and radio. Imagine only CNN running TV and radio channels in the US! Competitors only allowed entertainment. State own media pushing agenda on mass-migration, open borders, climate change, pro-euro and hate for Trump. All newspapers are subsisted by Government running the same agenda. Swedish Riksbank is trapped and forced to follow ECB down the drain with subzero rates and more QE. The SEK is tanking. This is not going to end well.

Could you please shed some light and interpret Socrates outlook for Sweden, SEK and OMX30

Thanks for your great work.


Thursday, October 10, 2019

How Your Money Goes "Poof" to "Money Heaven"

By far the biggest financial bubble in the world, and in history, is the rush to buy European bonds causing negative yields. The quantity of bonds with negative yields recently reached $17 Trillion!  Of course this is causing a bond-buying mania in every other market, driving the US 10 Year bond to 1.5%

I warned a friend recently that it’s dangerous and there could be a violent reversal.

Then, in recent weeks, the ECB reverted to more QE to keep the game going. But surprisingly, there has been a chorus of people who, stating the obvious, roundly criticized the decision both on the ECB's monetary committee and in the media that the negative rates are killing the banks and the financial system. This dissent is new. But Draghi did it anyway despite the criticism on his own committee. He didn't even allow the committee to vote!

The Important EU Countries Are Now Against QE and Negative Rates!!
The ECB's QE motion was actually passed with a "relatively narrow majority" which explains why Draghi refused to take a vote as it would show that only Europe's B and C grade nations - such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, Estonia, Malta and Cyprus - were for a restart in debt monetization.

The Whole Scheme Could Fall Apart

There's a chorus of "economists" across the world who are also increasingly critical of negative yields.  It's becoming a consensus. And it's about time! QE and negative rates haven't helped; they've hurt and caused damage to retirees, pension funds, insurance companies and most importantly the banking system (especially Europe).

So, we're one populist revolt in a single EU country like Italy or Greece leaving the EU that could begin a real bond rout. Or what if Germany left the EU?  What if the ECB decides to abandon the QE effort now that there is consensus that it's actually crazy?

It’s mindboggling to think about the chain of events that could unfold. Greece recently priced some bonds with negative yields, which is clearly insane. If any EU country leaves, like Greece, their bond prices would drop 80% overnight to drive their yields to 5%, 6% or maybe 10% from -0.5%.  The same effect if QE is suddenly disavowed, bond prices across the EU would drop very hard--like 40%. This would lead to huge losses in the rest of the world's bonds too!

The effect could include the instant bankruptcy of nearly all EU banks whose effects would spread to the US and World. The ECB itself would be understood to be technically bankrupt. Bank runs could easily erupt since depositors are at risk in the EU in the event of a bank bankruptcy. A flood of money to the US would ensue. The dollar would rocket higher due to money fleeing Europe.

Remember, the world-wide bond market is valued at least $110 Trillion and the world's stock markets are "worth" some $40 Trillion.  Losses in a combined stock and bond rout could be something like 70% or $110 Trillion wiped-out in a very short period.  $110 Trillion in fiat money would go to "money heaven."

Then, for the real disaster, there is a real possibility that once the bond rout gets going, you’ll wake up one morning and the stock futures markets are halted limit down! And then stock markets stay limit down for days or weeks and don’t or can’t re-open! When they reopen, they are down 80%. This is not an insane concept. The entire worldwide Central Bank bubble can get wiped-out within months. Scary stuff!

This is how “excess” money goes “poof”. And, in our fiat world, far too much money/credit has been created and will likely go “poof."  The world would be instantly be plunged into a deep depression especially with Central Banks understood to be bankrupt.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

50 Years of Failed Climate Apocalypse Predictions

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today.  None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.

What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.

While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.
Here is the source for numbers 1-27. As you will see, the individual sources are not crackpots, but scientific studies and media reports on “expert” predictions. The sources for numbers 28-41 are linked individually.
  1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
  2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
  3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
  4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
  5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
  6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
  7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
  8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
  9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
  10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
  11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes
  12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend
  13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
  14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
  15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
  16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
  17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
  18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
  19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
  20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
  21. 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
  22. 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
  23. 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
  24. 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
  25. 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
  26. 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
  27. 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
  28. 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
  29. 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
  30. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
  31. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
  32. 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s
  33. 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
  34. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
  35. 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
  36. 2006: Super Hurricanes!
  37. 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
  38. 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
  39. 1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
  40. 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
  41. 1970s: Killer Bees!
1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
1969: ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989.’
1970: Ice age by 2000

1970: ‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’
1971: ‘New Ice Age Coming’
Source: Washington Post, July 9, 1971

1972: New ice age by 2070
1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’
Source: The Guardian, January 29, 1974
1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’

Source: TIME, June 24, 1974
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life’

But no such ‘great peril to life’ has been observed as the so-called ‘ozone hole’ remains:

Sources: Headline
NASA Data | Graph


Monday, October 7, 2019

Everything the Press Gets Wrong about the Ukraine Call

Posted By Scott Adams on September 27, 2019

Here’s a question you haven’t heard anyone ask about the Ukraine phone call story: If the Biden family never existed, would it have still been a good idea for President Trump to put a hold on funds already approved by Congress for Ukraine until the leaders spoke?

Answer: Yes.

The citizens who voted for Trump knew what they were getting. He promised to be a tough negotiator with our allies and adversaries alike. So what would a competent negotiator do when dealing with a new leader — of any country — before their first conversation? If he’s smart, he would “set the table” as Trump sometimes says about negotiating. In other words, you don’t start the conversation with someone important until you have arranged as many variables as you can in your favor. In the Ukraine phone call situation, President Trump effectively transferred power from Congress to himself in terms of “approving” Ukraine’s funds. Then he took a phone call with the new President of Ukraine.

That was perfect negotiating form.

We give our presidents a lot of flexibility in dealing with foreign affairs because it works better to have one “boss” in these situations. Had Trump permanently withheld funds approved by Congress, that would be a system problem on our end. But temporarily putting a hold on those funds before speaking leader-to-leader is just smart presidenting. It creates the impression that the president is the only American the foreign leader needs to deal with. That’s “setting the table.”

Does it matter exactly what Trump was going to discuss, negotiate, or request?

Nope. If the only thing Trump did on the phone call was congratulate President Zelensky on his election victory, it would still be smart to hold the funds until then. We want our president to go into every conversation with foreign leaders fully armed, persuasion-wise. When Trump brings the full weight of the office with him, it sets the table for the current conversations, and every one after that. When Trump withholds funds, pulls out of a deal, or otherwise transfers power from Congress to himself, it makes him a more effective negotiator. It puts him in charge. It is a strong psychological advantage.

Compare that approach to sending a president out weak, dependent on Congress to wipe his nose. Those are not similar table settings. Trump knows the difference. So does everyone who read his book, The Art of the The Deal.

We’ve heard Trump say he was concerned about corruption in Ukraine, and that was why he put a hold on the funds. I’m sure that was at least a part of his concern. Probably every American has that same concern about foreign aid in general. But as I said, it doesn’t matter what reason he gives the American public. Regardless of corruption in Ukraine, it was still smart to withhold funds until after the leaders spoke, because it made Trump the only person Zelensky needs to satisfy. That’s what we want from our presidents. We want them going in strong, with the full weight of their office and influence, to every interaction with foreign leaders, every time.

But what about Trump asking Zelensky for help looking into Hunter Biden’s business dealings? Isn’t it inappropriate for a president of the United States to ask a foreign leader to help him win reelection? If that’s ALL it was, it would absolutely be inappropriate. But was that all it was?

Suppose a candidate for president of the United States is leading in all the polls and he has publicly known conflicts of interest with a foreign country, such that blackmail-like influence was a real risk. Or at least it looks that way on the surface. What kind of priority should a sitting president put on that situation?

Answer: Top priority  Continued....

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Alinsky's How to Create a Socialist State

Remember, Hillary Clinton did her college thesis on Saul Alinsky's works and we know Barack Obama was a fan of Alinski as well.

GNS Economics: The Path to Recession, Crisis and Global Depression

From 12th September 2019:
There is renewed hope in the markets after central banks, most-recently the ECB and China, have added easing measures. The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go even more deeply into debt. But will the increase in liquidity work this time around?

Several arguments can be made indicating that the answer is “no”. It’s likely that this ‘liquidity pulse’ may provide a temporary boost to the markets, but not the real economy. This is an extremely hazardous combination.

The end of the cycle

As we explained in our June forecasts, the nascent economic downturn did not start as a result of trade issues, but rather from the diminution of massive Chinese debt-stimulus, which ran from around late 2015 till July 2017. This stimulus was conducted through the shadow-banking sector and especially through the local government financing vehicles, or “LGFVs”. During 2016, the size of the shadow banking sector tripled.

Funds from the shadow-banking sector were directed towards infrastructure investments and housing, supporting both the Ponzified Chinese economy and its related housing bubble. The effect of this debt-binge is clearly visible in a sharp rise in the Chinese leading economic indicator from late 2015 through the summer of 2017 followed by a rise in the indicators of other countries (see Figure 1). In essence, China pulled the world economy back from the brink of recession.
Figure 1. The amplitude adjusted composite leading indicator of the OECD for China, Germany, euro area and the United States. Source: GnS Economics, OECD

Why did China stop the stimulus? For two simple reasons. First, China has inflated a massive debt bubble used to finance unproductive investments, which has secondly resulted in the stagnation of China’s productivity growth (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. The growth of total factor productivity in China. Source: GnS Economics, Conference Board
The Chinese leadership was almost-certainly acutely aware in 2017 that the relentless pace of debt growth was leading the country to a debt crisis. So, after the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2017 (actually around two months earlier) they hit the brakes, and the world economy started to slow. This is clearly visible in the leading indicators above.

Early this year, Chinese leaders again panicked and started to push more debt into the economy. During H1, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 5.8 percentage points to 249.5 percent after falling for most of 2018.

What is notable is that, unlike in 2015/2016 when the economy quickly responded to the stimulus, the rebound has been lacklustre this time around. The combination of fiscal, credit and monetary stimulus early this year produced only mediocre growth of 6.2 percent in Q2, the slowest since 1992, and private data implies that the economic situation is worse that the official figures show.

China seems to have reached the point where a moderate (normal) stimulus does not support the real economy anymore, and a flat-out debt-binge, รก la 2015/2016, would flare up a debt crisis. This, quite simply, means that the global business cycle is at its end.

Central planning, squared

Throughout this cycle, central planners have tried to postpone the downturn by all possible means. This marks the current expansion as the most manipulated business cycle, ever. This is actually rather understandable if one considers that the fate of the global banking system, the Eurozone, the legitimacy of Communist Party of China and even the very existence of central banks themselves possibly hangs in the balance.

Now, with the lead of the ECB and the Fed, central banks are again attempting to provide more stimulus. In their desperation, they are trying to wrestle the global economy back to growth with more easing. But they overlook that:
  1. China has been driving this cycle, and its economy is stagnating.
  2. The world is already “drowning” in debt.
  3. Unconventional methods, like negative interest rates, are wreaking havoc in the banking sector and the real economy.
The first point makes it impossible for any monetary easing to sustain the current economic expansion. The second makes any fiscal stimulus highly questionable (while it may help for a short while).

The third is the most crucial one. The European banking sector is especially unlikely to survive deeper negative rates, as several major European bank chiefs made a very clear in their recent extraordinary public communiques. We also already know that the asset purchase programs (“QEs”) increase the fragility in the banking system.

Central banks are undermining the foundations of the economy with more stimulus, especially in Europe. The ”open-ended” QE of the ECB will keep eroding financial stability in the Eurozone and the ”two-tier” system is unlikely to fix the profitability issues of banks. One might argue that the ECB is, in effect, demolishing Europe with its “bazooka”.

Recession, and the crisis, are coming

The re-escalation of the trade war since May has deadened corporate sentiment across the globe. Therefore, it has acted as an accelerator for the downturn, and even if trade disputes can be settled quickly, which is unlikely, the damage may already have been done. Moreover, as we have contended for over two years, the real issues behind the global slowdown are more malevolent than simple trade disputes.

The ‘unconventional means’ of central banks have, quite simply, sabotaged the engine that drives economic growth, while massive and increasingly-unproductive debt stimulus by China has hollowed-out the global economy. If China and central banks manage to resuscitate the asset markets, but not the real economy, which is unfortunately quite probable, the end-result cannot be anything less than a crash, as in 1929.

Thus, while additional stimulus may provide some relief or even short-term euphoria for the markets, it will only be a mirage, a “Bull Trap”. After a brief uptick, the global economy will continue to sink, until the fragile European banking system breaks and global stock markets and economy follow. And then, collapse.