Thursday, January 9, 2020

Extreme Bubble Phase: The Fed Trapped in Repo, then QE. Either Inflate Bubbles or World Economy Blows Up

Fed "Emergency" Liquidity Injections since Sep 2019
We are clearly in the extreme (and maybe terminal excess) phase of the multi-decade easy money bonanza. The Federal Reserve is once again trapped as lender of first resort in Repo, a market that they rarely enter (except prior to previous burst equity bubbles in years 2000 and 2008). It's becoming clear that they can't exit these markets or the financial system blows up.

Try as they might the Fed will be forced into quantitative easing soon and the markets know it. The stock market is melting-up into uncharted valuations, even exceeding the bubble valuations on the back of endless tsunamis of liquidity and confidence in Central Banks. And barely a correction in stocks for 11 years straight!  Worse, they must keep the liquidity taps on or else the whole scheme falls apart.

Stock market at the highest valuations in history
Every segment of the stock market is overvalued including "value" stocks, as retirees keep searching for ever-shrinking yields in stocks and bonds. There's literally no value left. The entire "game" has been to re-inflate the housing, bond and equity bubbles to create some kind of trickle down to the majority of people with no stocks or bonds.

One or more big banks or hedge funds are in trouble somewhere and RIGHT NOW the Fed is  bailing them out via Repos. Interest rates are trying to rise but the Fed is fighting the market. The fight is one of desperation and ultimately futile. QE is coming again or interest rates rise and the financial system blows up!

In my post, Rising Risk of Financial & Economic Crisis, Part 2, I indicated that the EU banking system was a major source of dollars (Eurodollars) to the world from the late 1980s to 2008.  After 2007 (cause of the GFC?), that system has been in reverse for 11 years now as EU banks are slowly going bankrupt and can no longer take the risk. EU banks are in a slow motion failure, which will ultimately spark a world-wide financial crisis that no one can escape. The US Federal Reserve probably can't even save them since it's not really their job.

So the Fed and all the world central banks have been on a nearly non-stop QE treadmill, emergency measures for 11 years now, to support the "markets" in order to create some sort of "recovery" in the world economy after the great financial crisis of 2008/2009.  That and $58 trillion of total world debt (since 2008) spending produced a decade with a measly 2% growth in the US and even less in Europe. Much of the world's recovery came from an unprecedented debt-fueled spending spree in China. But China is running out of dollars now.
Income Inequality is back to 1929 Levels

After 40 years of super-easy (unsound) money, we have wealth inequality back to 1929 levels. Unsound money has tore up our country's (and world's) social foundations. US Government corruption is off-the-charts, socialism is gaining traction with young people. Debt is soaring as government spending tries to compensate for a poor economy for most people. There are populist movements springing up around the world. The entire elitist Globalist agenda is being reversed after decades of Western de-industrialization. It was all enabled by unsound "funny money." Now, even China is severely tightening it's totalitarian grip as they can see that there is a very rough road ahead.They are recently seeing bank runs and corporate bond defaults in their hideously bloated financial system. They are so indebted that they can no longer support the world economy as they did post-2009. Latin America is falling apart. The Middle East and Africa are falling apart. China is struggling to avert financial chaos. Europe is destroying themselves, their financial system and probably the world economy. Much of the US is suffering with stagnating local economies with low wages and enormous inflation in rent, housing, food and medical insurance costs. Meanwhile the rich enjoy their capital gains in the markets.

When the mother of all financial bubbles bursts, it's entirely likely that financial system fails for a longer time than in 2008. Eventually the Central Banks will lose the illusion of control, not like in year 2000 and 2008, because now there are very limited ammunition to fight the downturn since interest rates are already very low. The only tool that central banks have is QE, which is proven to be ineffective to support the real economy--only market prices.

From GSN Economics:  In their efforts to “save” the world economy, central banks have created a monster: a dysfunctional, extremely-speculative and highly-leveraged financial sector. All that is needed for it to unravel are rising rates in an some important, if obscure, corner of the capital markets—just like the repo-markets.  Doug here:  or a rise in sovereign bond yields (drop in price) in an important market like the EU to tip EU banks into a crisis.

Monday, January 6, 2020

Read It and Weep: The Catastrophe of Black and Anti-White "Culture" in America

Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger!  All of the following are the work of Paul Kersey at

His Name Is Mark Schlemmer: White Father of Two "Mistakingly" Gunned Down by Black Male in St. Louis
We call St. Louis "Bell Curve City" (hint: pick up a copy or two of Bell Curve City: St. Louis, Ferguson, and the Unmentionable Racial Realities That Shape Them). Why? Because so many racial truths are found in the 49 percent black/43 percent white city. What do we mean? Well, 89 percent of homicide suspects... READ MORE

Is It Because Criminals Are Overwhelming Black? In Atlanta, Police Department Institutes a No-Chase Policy Toward Criminals, Effective Immediately
Previously on SBPDL: In Overwhelmingly White Buckhead Community of Atlanta, Citizens Irate Black-Run City Stopped Police from Responding to Shoplifting/Property Crimes Atlanta is the Black Mecca. It's a majority black city, though gentrification is civilizing once drug infested communities quickly, where criminality is almost exclusively a black vocation and avocation. In 2018 Atlanta, the Atlanta... READ MORE

In the Name of Equity, New York Lawmakers Seek to Create a Gentrification Tax (Tax on White Property Purchasers)
Let's just call it the white tax and be done with it.[City lawmakers want to impose gentrification tax, New York Post, December 26, 2019]: Here’s one thing that unites local pols across the political divide — a gentrification tax. A bipartisan group of city lawmakers is pushing Albany to approve tweaks to the state tax... READ MORE

Starting in 2020 Public Schools Across California Will No Longer Suspend Students for Disobeying Teachers, Because Too Many Students of Color (Non-Whites) Get Suspended
First data point you need to know: white students represent just 23 percent of public school enrollment in the state of California. Second data point you need to know: though black students make up just 5 percent of the public school enrollment in the state of California, they represent the majority of students suspended (even... READ MORE
Previously on SBPDL: A Letter by a White Baltimore Woman from 1917 vs. Spike Lee's Rant Against Gentrification and 70% Black Baltimore vs. 77% White Portland, Oregon: Both Dominated By Elected Democrats, Why Did Baltimore Have 10x the Number of Homicides in 2018? Once a world-class city, 70 percent black Baltimore is now a punchline.... READ MORE

Pew Research Center Confirms the Great Replacement Is Happening: K-12 Public School Enrollment in USA Was 65% White in 1995; in 2018, Down to 48% White
From 65 percent white in 1995 to 48 percent white in 2018. This is the percentage of whites (and the dramatic drop in percentage of whites) for K-12 public schools from 1995 to 2018. The Great Replacement is real, and is nothing less than state policy. [U.S. has changed in key ways in the past... READ MORE

Non-White Democrats in Virginia Seek to Outlaw White Flight and Creation of White Suburbs
In a society governed by extreme egalitarianism, freedom of association is but a pipe-dream. Our elite, and those elected to govern and dictate our lives, utilize diversity and multiculturalism (non-white legal immigration/refugees) as a weapon to bludgeon whats left of the Historic America Nation. And now, non-white Democrats have declared war on the white suburbs.... READ MORE

Just Make It Illegal to Arrest Blacks... New York Set to Free Thousands from Jail Because Primarily Non-White Criminals Can't Pay Cash Bail
Why should laws, especially those of the soon-to-be-demographically-supplanted white man, apply to saintly people of color? Especially when those laws disproportionately apply to people of color, forcing them into enclosed rooms at the expense of the taxpayer? Just release them upon the community, regardless of why they were locked away. After all, they are people... READ MORE

Can We Just Make It Illegal to Arrest Blacks in San Francisco? Black Public Officials Bemoan Blacks Make Up Nearly Half of BART Riders Getting Citations for Fare Evasion
Previously on SBPDL: Pattern Recognition a Greater Sin Than Black Criminality: BART Officials Protecting Black Criminals from "Racially Insensitive Commentary" A glimpse of what's coming in 2020? Hint: the state-mandated concept of black privilege trumping the enforcement of the law. [Nearly half of BART fare citations go to black riders, but police say system prevents... READ MORE

Her Name Is Tessa Majors: White 18-Year-Old Female College Student Murdered in "Robbery Gone Wrong" in New York City By 3 Black Teenagers
Previously on SBPDL: In 2018 New York City (a 33% White City), Non-Whites Committed 95.4% of the Murders and 97.8% of the Nonfatal Shootings What are the elites in New York City trying to cover up? They've already dubbed it a "robbery gone wrong." We know the three teens involved in the murder of Tessa... READ MORE

In Face of Democrat Party Tyranny, 90% of Virginia Counties Become 2nd Amendment/Gun ‘Sanctuaries'; These Counties Are Overwhelmingly White!
Previously on SBPDL: With Demographic Change, Comes Consequences: Non-White Legal Immigrants Turned Virginia Blue, Now Democrats Threaten Deploying National Guard on Predominately White Counties Refusing Gun Control It's always been about disarming white Americans. That's the end goal of gun control, pushed by the Democrat Party (aided by non-white legal immigration and the monolithic black... READ MORE

It's Official -- Diversity Means Just Fewer White People: Wall Street Journal Demands National Hockey League (NHL) Increase Non-White Players or Die
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is 80.7 percent black. The National Football League (NFL) is 70.1 percent People of Color - 26.8 percent white. The National Hockey League (NHL) is roughly 90 percent white and under assault by the elite corporate press for being too white, a charge never leveled at the NBA or the... READ MORE
Never forget: once non-whites gain electoral control of a city, they use state power to promote their racial groups interests exclusively. For the truth of this, see Detroit and Baltimore. It's with this in mind we consider what a black professor of African American Studies at the University of Mississippi recently proposed as penalty for... READ MORE

In 66% White/13% Black St. Paul, Minnesota, Blacks Are Responsible for Nearly Every Homicide (2019 Rate Doubled Prior Year)
St. Paul, Minnesota is 66 percent white. It's 13 percent black. And yet violent crime, just as is documented in every American citizen, has a well-known racial bias. The descendants of Scandinavians aren't killing one another drug deals or social media beefs; those primarily descended from Africans have a strange proclivity to engaging in the... READ MORE

With Demographic Change, Comes Consequences: Non-White Legal Immigrants Turned Virginia Blue, Now Democrats Threaten Deploying National Guard on Predominately White Counties Refusing Gun Control
Previously on SBPDL: Black Police Chief of 44% White/42% Black Norfolk, Virginia Admits the Truth: Blacks Represent 94% of Shooting Suspects in the City Time for a quick rerun. Well, they now openly brag about replacing white people with a more compliant population group to ensure the posterity of the Founding Fathers watch as their... READ MORE

It Just Won't Stop: Black Leaders Continue to Meet in Philadelphia, Trying to Negotiate an End to Pervasive Black on Black Crime/Violence
Serious question: would blacks in Philadelphia be meeting together to confront the problem of rising black-on-white crime? Serious question part two: have white people in any part of the United States ever been forced to meet to confront the problem of rising white-on-white crime? Seriously? [African American community tackles concerns over rising violence in Philadelphia,... READ MORE

In 63% White/ 29% Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Home to Cleveland), 83% of Homicide Offenders Between 2017 and 2019 Were Black
It's real simple, data put out by public officials showing who/whom is committing the violent crime in a given community/city/county/state/entire nation is routinely ignored. Take Cuyahoga County, Ohio for example: home to Cleveland, the county is 63 percent white and 29 percent black. The Cuyahoga County Prosecutor’s Office released a comprehensive report on homicide victims... READ MORE

Previously on SBPDL: Can We Just Make It Illegal to Arrest Blacks? Black State's Attorney of 70% Black Baltimore Excuses Away Black Crime, Compares Criminal Justice System to Slavery No need to reinvent the wheel... In the current paradigm, the only tolerated answer for why so many black - and brown - pupils are... READ MORE
Previously on SBPDL: Bureau of Justice Statistics 2018 Survey of Criminal Victimization Shows Blacks Committed 90% of Interracial Violent Felonies Between Blacks and Whites Their Lives Matter Too. Imagine living in small town Americana. You live in a 96 percent white city in Iowa, where you've known your neighbors and those in the community your... READ MORE

Her Name Is Melissa Hamilton: White Female Addiction Counselor Raped and Murdered by Black Man in Tennessee
Previously on SBPDL: Bureau of Justice Statistics 2018 Survey of Criminal Victimization Shows Blacks Committed 90% of Interracial Violent Felonies Between Blacks and Whites Their Lives Matter Too. She was once an addict. She got sober. She then dedicated her life to helping people try and break their addictions. Her name is Melissa Hamilton. She... READ MORE

In 1940, Los Angeles County was 93 percent white. By 2000, Los Angeles County was only 32 percent white. What is this majority non-white world of 2019 like in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County?[LAPD analysis shows homicide victims are overwhelmingly young, nonwhite and poor, LA Times, 1-31-2018]: For years, homicide detectives have known all... READ MORE

10 People Shot After HBCU Bayou Classic Football Game in New Orleans... Second Time in Four Years a Black Mass Shooting Has Occurred During the Weekend of the Grambling State/Southern Matchup
Previously on SBPDL: "The City of New Orleans Murders and Non-Fatal Shootings Trend 2015 Annual Report" Confirms Blacks Responsible for Almost All Violent Crime in NOLA For the second time in four years, there has been a [black] mass shooting in New Orleans during the weekend of the Historically Black College University (HBCU) football game,... READ MORE

Training to be a Violence Interrupter in Majority Black Washington D.C., Clarence Venable (Black Male) Shot to Death by Black Male as He Left Training Class
What percent of homicides and gun violence (nonfatal shootings) in Washington D.C. are committed by blacks? Serious question. It's probably close to 99 percent, with a margin of error of 1%. Conspiracy theorists can engage in wild ideas all they want, but Ockham's Razor helps us understand the murderer of Seth Rich was probably just... READ MORE

London 2019: Jailed for 8 Years for Plotting Terror Attack (Released Early), Islamic Extremist - Wearing Ankle Monitor - Stabs Two to Death... Was Attending "Reintegration to Society" Course
Previously on SBPDL: London Has Fallen: Muslim Population in England Increases 6900% from 1939 to 2017 Get out your calculator. You're going to need it! Go ahead and count the insanity in the story below, detailing the latest Islamic terror attack in London, England. The correct score will win a prize at the end. Happy... READ MORE

Black Mob Attacks White Actress and Her Friends in New York City, Shout Anti-White Language During the Assault
Previously on SBPDL: Bureau of Justice Statistics 2018 Survey of Criminal Victimization Shows Blacks Committed 90% of Interracial Violent Felonies Between Blacks and Whites During the polar vertex in January of 2019, a black actor claimed two white males - wearing MAGA hats - attacked him at 3:00 a.m. in a heavily black area of... READ MORE

FBI's 2018 Hate Crime Data Shows Blacks 2.6 Times More Likely Than Whites to Commit Hate Crimes
Let's paraphrase an article from American Thinker back in 2017. It's an important one, helping us understand the truly malevolent forces of the corporate media. Here we go. Data contradicting the approved narrative of the anti-white left rarely garner headlines. Non-whites must always be victims of the heartless white majority, correct? So our helpful government... READ MORE

Boston University Study on Gun Homicides in USA Admits the Racial Truth of Firearm Violence: Young People of Color (Blacks) Are Primarily Responsible for Fatal Shootings
Yet another major university study on gun crime/fire homicide in America proves what we all privately know (and what Family Guy in the show's infancy dared admit in the guise of a joke), yet dare not publicly speak - guns don't kill people, dangerous minorities do. [Young People Of Color Are The Most Frequent Victims... READ MORE

Charlotte Observer Report Shows Half of All Weapons Offenses in North Carolina Are Dismissed: Because Cracking Down on Gun Crime Means More Non-Whites (Blacks) in Jail
Criminal Justice Reform pushed by both Democrats and Republicans represents treason to the law abiding citizens of this nation, for it ensures violent criminals will be released into the public to prey upon us. We aren't tough enough on crime in America, where violent, homicidal, convicted criminals sit on death row for decades, instead of... READ MORE

Because People of Color Disproportionately Fail to Pay Their Water Bills in 33% White Chicago, New Black Mayor Stops Shutoffs for Nonpayment... Costs City $20 Million
Previously on SBPDL: Because Blacks Don't Pay Water Bills in Majority Black Baltimore and Cleveland, NAACP Legal Defense Fund Pushing Idea of No Water Bills for Blacks As western civilization fades away across the United States, the consequences of what happens when white people lose power - democracy is a racial headcount, remember? - becomes...

The Anti-White Party

From William Lind at

An outtake in an article in the November 14 New York Times about the Iowa caucuses caused me to do a double take: “Democrats question the status of a state that’s 90% white.”

Imagine that the Times had instead said, “Republicans question the status of a state that’s heavily black,” or “GOP questions the status of a state that’s largely Hispanic.” The crises of outrage would reach to the heavens. Every Establishment organ would demand the Republicans pee all over themselves, grovel in the dust, and kiss the feet of so-called black and Hispanic “leaders”, most of whom are con artists. But when the Democrats dismiss a state because it’s largely white? Not a murmur of protest arose from any quarter.

Along with a growing number of other white Americans, I find myself saying, “Wait a minute, whites built this country. We took a vast wilderness inhabited by a few million howling savages and turned it into what was, as recently as the 1950s, the best country on earth of all time. The contribution of other races was mostly muscle, not brains. In that respect, they stand well back from the ox, mule, and horse. And now we are to stand mute as Democrats make us a despised minority in our own country? I don’t think so.”

The Democratic Party’s hostility toward whites is a product of the broader ideology that party has embraced, the ideology of cultural Marxism, which is commonly known as “political correctness” or “multiculturalism”. Like Moscow’s old Marxism-Leninism, cultural Marxism says certain kinds of people are a priori good and others evil, regardless of what individuals do. In Marxism-Leninism, workers and peasants are good while landlords, capitalists and members of the middle class, the bourgeoisie, are evil. The latter are fit only to be “liquidated”, which Soviet Communism did on a scale that put Hitler to shame: not six million dead, but sixty million. (Ever notice how people on the Left swoon at the sight of a swastika but find the hammer and sickle gently amusing?)

Cultural Marxism says whites are inherently evil “oppressors” who must constantly beg blacks, Indians, immigrants, etc. to forgive their “white privilege”. The average white family living paycheck-to-paycheck doesn’t see a lot of privilege in being white. In fact, it seems our “privilege” is to pay the bills, through our taxes, of non-whites who can’t or won’t pay their own. If there is “injustice” here, it’s toward whites, who should be privileged in a country we made out of nothing. And by the way, when we ran the place, it worked pretty well. In the 1950s, the black inner city was safe.

It is now virtually impossible to be a Democrat and not embrace cultural Marxism. That ideology condemns not only whites, but males, non-feminist women, straights, and Christians. All are fit only to be–what? Liquidated, like Russia’s middle and upper classes? From what we see on university campuses where cultural Marxists hold power, it seems there are no limits on how far their hatred of whites will go.

What this all adds up to is that, for the 2020 elections, there is really only one issue. The Democratic Party is anti-white, anti-male, anti-straight, and anti-Christian. Logically, that means no white, male, straight, or Christian should vote Democrat. To do so would be to vote for their own persecution and eventual extinction in a country they created. If we really want to commit suicide, there are better ways to do it than by handing political power over to our enemies.

More and more white Americans are coming to understand this. That’s why President Trump, if he runs in 2020, is likely to win in a landslide, regardless of who the Democrats nominate. If you don’t think so, look at the racial breakdown among likely voters in the swing states.

Sunday, January 5, 2020

The Non-White End of Exceptional America

The Democrat plan to destroy America is right on track.  The Immigration Act of 1965 turned the immigrant tide toward brown and black persons and away from the traditional path of white European immigration.  Now the browns and blacks are getting elected-- assuring the complete destruction of this country -- JUST LIKE THEIR HOME (AND ANCESTRAL)  COUNTRIES --THAT ARE SHIT-HOLES AND IN COLLAPSE!!!  It's the people stupid! All of these people and their families are in the USA because their countries of origin are fucked up.

Now I understand why US Southern Democrats completely reversed the civil rights gains of the Civil War. A number of blacks got elected and they found out what they were dealing with!

The Squad are so mentally deficient that they can't see cause and effect (which requires logic) meaning that they'll never get it. They buy into destructive Leftism and Islam. To be black and Leftist is a disaster.  But to be a Leftist, black and Muslim is a trifecta of bad ideas and destruction!!  See Epicenters of Ignorance, Bad Ideas and Destruction.

Once this country is a shit hole like Somalia, the Palestinian territories, any Majority black city or State anywhere in the world, or most Latin American nations including Puerto Rico, they'll presumably move to destroy someplace else. Problem is, after America is destroyed, the world is headed into a Dark Age.

"The Squad"of apprentice congresswomen are typical of non-white minorities who are unable to see that their populations are quite inferior to the descendants of white northern Europeans and certain East Asian populations that have high median intelligence. They live in 100% denial of their reality. I'd be perfectly fine with these people if they had a little humility. Instead all you get is unfounded confidence which shows extreme arrogance in their stupidity. All of these women want to be tyrants to impose their loser ideas on everyone else: JUST LIKE IN SHIT HOLE COUNTRIES!!

Saturday, January 4, 2020

Gender Fluidity Hits the Brick Wall of Reality

From Epoch Times:

An Oregon court that granted the first individual legal recognition for his “non-binary” sex designation has rescinded the status and restored the sex on his birth certificate to “male.”

In a dramatic repudiation of the transgenderism movement and the industry that supports it, the request for the change came from James Shupe, an icon of transgender activism, who denounced the movement and the idea that one can change one’s sex as a fraud.

“I’m saying my experience should very much serve as a cautionary tale, to everyone, from males like me with sexual paraphilias and false beliefs about being women, to the lawyers, doctors, judges, therapists, and lawmakers that allowed this whole sordid tale to happen,” Shupe told The Epoch Times via email.

Paraphilias, according to WebMD, are “abnormal sexual behaviors or impulses characterized by intense sexual fantasies and urges that keep coming back.”

News of Shupe’s restored male sex status broke in a Dec. 31 interview with Tyler O’Neil of PJMedia.

The charade of not being male, the legal fiction, it’s over,” Shupe said.

The lies behind my fictitious sex changes, something I shamefully participated in, first to female, and then to non-binary, have been forever exposed. A truthful accounting of events has replaced the deceit that allowed me to become America’s first legally non-binary person.

“The legal record has now been corrected and LGBT advocates are no longer able to use my historic non-binary court order to advance their toxic agenda.

I am and have always been male. That is my biological truth, the only thing capable of grounding me to reality.”

Born in the nation’s capital in 1963, Shupe, who served in the U.S. Army from 1982 to 2000, has been married to his wife, Sandy, for three decades. He began identifying as a transgender woman in 2013 after experiencing harassment in the military because others thought of him as homosexual. He subjected himself to hormone treatment that had unpleasant, dangerous side effects, and legally changed his first name to Jamie and his sex to female. He didn’t undergo sex-reassignment surgery.

A few years later, he changed his legal sex again.

On June 10, 2016, Multnomah County, Oregon, Circuit Court Judge Amy Holmes Hehn signed an order declaring that Shupe’s sex “is hereby changed from female to non-binary.”

Shupe was celebrated by the LGBT movement and hailed as a courageous trailblazer by the mainstream media, but changing his legal sex and trying to live as a non-binary person didn’t solve his problems, he said.

The gender transitions were supposed to fix my mental health problems, but I kept getting worse instead. The high-powered marijuana made me psychotic. I started hearing booming noises and having visions of being some Indian woman,” he told PJMedia. “I started believing I was some kind of chosen one who was picked to restore the third gender to North America, that’s what I thought the visions were telling me.”

Shupe said he latched onto the transgender identity as he tried to deal with psychological problems that should have been dealt with more conventionally.

I ended up in the psych ward three times because of hormones. I had blood clots in my eyes because my estrogen levels were 2,585 instead of 200, low bone density, problems controlling my bladder, and emotional instability,” he said.

Blood tests indicated I was dropping into kidney disease territory … for about 18 months, I had chronic dermatology issues and skin reactions to estrogen patches, I passed out on the kitchen floor from Spironolactone [a diruretic drug].”

Shupe decided to legally become male again.

Gay-rights public interest law firm Lambda Legal dropped him as a client, and Shupe changed his political perspective. Although he had supported transgender individuals serving in the armed forces, he came to embrace President Donald Trump’s policy that service members live according to their sex at birth.

Multnomah County, Oregon, Circuit Court Judge Patricia L. McGuire signed a “General Judgment Regarding Change of Name and Sex” on Dec. 19, 2019, changing his sex to male and his name to James Clifford Shupe.

Despite six years of hormonal treatments, my sex was immutable, and I remained the same biological male I was at the time of my birth. In hindsight, my sex change to non-binary was a psychologically harmful legal fiction, and I desire to reclaim my male birth sex,” Shupe told PJMedia.

Sunday, December 29, 2019

Rising Risk of Financial & Economic Chaos, Part 2

As mentioned in Part 1 that since September, when interest rates were suddenly going up in short-term funding markets, the Federal Reserve has been in a panic to suppress and control short-term rates. Three months later, these efforts have continued and become massive ($1/2 Trillion).

It's possible that with the amount of government and corporate borrowing underway, the overnight 1.5% interest rate is too low relative to the demand for money. Government borrowing is accelerating due to tax cuts and spending. It's even possible that a recession is unfolding now causing government deficits to surge. Hedge funds, who can tap the Repo market (repurchase agreements), may be over-leveraged and desperate for money. Rates are trying to rise, but the Fed won't let it happen. This implies that the Fed may not be able to step away from these markets going forward and likely will have to re-start Quantitative Easing on a long-term basis to buy US debt--which essentially monetizes the US deficit.

This is the stuff of the Weimar Republic. No wonder gold prices are perking up.

The Worldwide Financial/Liquidity Crisis Has Likely Begun
This Repo crisis is the beginning of the next financial crisis. We are in it. Banks were/are not lending to other banks and/or hedge funds probably because of the counter-party risk. And The Fed is not explaining anything about this, presumably to avoid creating a panic. Even in recent press conferences, Jay Powell is not even asked questions about this by reporters, presumably by agreement with the press to keep this all secret. Meanwhile the stock market is soaring into bubble territory due to the tsunami of liquidity.

All of these Repo operations are short term to very short term (overnight). Going into early 2020, most of these liquidity injections are scheduled to reverse. This is an effective tightening if nothing changes. Here's a chart of Repo "roll-off" going forward assuming no further massive liquidity injections:

Starting now and through the first two weeks of January 2020, liquidity may shrink and stock prices correct. Since markets are not allowed to go down now, I suspect that the Federal Reserve will ramp-up Repo money again or begin QE4 (that they promised they wouldn't).

European Banks and the Euro Will Destroy the World
The Europeans never allowed any banks to fail during the GFC in 2008, whereas some 157 banks failed and many mergers were arranged in the US during that recession. So nothing was allowed to fail in Europe. No bad debt was eliminated. So EU bank stocks are at 30+ year lows because everyone knows that they are loaded up with bad loans that are papered-over with "mark to fantasy"ratings. The other reason that the EU is faced with a banking crisis is that negative interest rates has effectively crippled the profitability of banks along with profit-killing regulations.

The actions of the ECB to drive interest rates to negative levels is the most irresponsible monetary "experiment" in the history of the world. It's artificially driven up bond prices to truly absurd levels. There are still some $17 Trillion of debt in the EU that have negative yields. It's the biggest bubble in the world! And there's no way out!

But now there's a chorus of "economists" across the world, especially Europe, who are also increasingly critical of negative yields. It's becoming a consensus. It's because QE and negative rates haven't helped; they've hurt and caused damage to retirees, pension funds, insurance companies and most importantly the banking system (especially Europe). Just a week ago, Sweden raised it's interest rate from -0.5% to 0% because of the damage negative rates are causing: housing market price bubbles, bank and pension troubles were cited.

So, we're one populist revolt in a single EU country like Italy or Greece leaving the EU that could begin a real bond rout. Or it could simply be credit markets revolting due to rising risk. What if the ECB, like Sweden, decides to abandon negative rates now that there is consensus that it's actually crazy?

EU banks are large holders of dicey sovereign bonds like Greece and Italy - countries suffering under the yolk of the Euro currency. Germany has loaned 100s of $billions to Southern Europe as the Euro currency has imposed a non-stop economic depression on the southern countries. This was predicted long ago by Margaret Thatcher. Such transfers are not sustainable. Economic hardship is causing unrest and populist and/or separatist movements all over the world including Europe. Brexit was first, but who's next?  If a country like Italy leaves the Euro currency, it's bonds would drop by about 70% to yield something like 7% from 1.4%. Since European banks are big holders of sovereign bonds, such an event would tip every bank in the EU into insolvency. One hiccup in a EU member's bond market (like Greece or Italy) and say hello to bank failures galore in Europe. Suffice it to say that EU banks are an ongoing problem for the world and probably an existential threat to the world of finance.

The effect could not only include the instant bankruptcy of nearly all EU banks whose effects would spread to the US and World. The ECB itself would be understood to be technically bankrupt. Bank runs could easily erupt since large depositors are at risk of losing their money for bail-ins in the event of an EU bank bankruptcy. A flood of money to the US would ensue. The dollar would rocket higher as US causing crises in emerging market countries that have issued dollar-denominated bonds --which is a huge amount.

In my post titled Declining Global Money Supply Taking World Economy With It, I mention that the real dollar money supply for world commerce was found in the Eurodollar markets of European banks. This market is the dollar supply especially for all of the international and emerging markets and China. Really, it's the money supply to the world. (The US Federal Reserve, for decades, has refused to see this phenomenon showing their utter incompetence -- they really don't know what they are doing.)  But all of this liquidity depends on the soundness and confidence in the EU bank's balance sheets. And we know they are sketchy. For this reason, the Eurodollar market has been in decay, especially since 2008 and after 2011. Shrinking Eurodollars means a shrinking world economy. This is why China is stagnating. It's why all emerging markets are stagnating. It's why world trade is falling. I can't see it getting better --only worse.

How We Got Here
From my post in February 2018 "Extremes in Unsound Money and Unsound Will Lead to Catastrophe,"I said that "In 1970, US debt was $275 Billion. It took 188 years to achieve that. This past week alone, the government sold $258 billion! In the past 6 months alone, US debt has exploded by $1 Trillion. And this is during "good times."

In 1971, Nixon ended the Post WWII Bretton Woods arrangement which ended any semblance of (gold-backed) sound money. As an immediate result, our national debt and inflation began to skyrocket. Central bank activism and "experimentation" increased as they tried to tame the increasingly unstable business cycle---that THEY caused!

The big banks have once again become highly risky hedge funds using your money to gamble on highly leveraged positions in risky derivatives (again) thanks to the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1991. They act with impunity since they have the government's backing when they fail again.

The rise of the Eurodollar market sprung up in Europe and provided massive liquidity to the world from the late 1980s to 2008. Bankers used an accounting trick to hide their increased leverage (in order to avoid violating bank capital rules). It worked until 2008.  Just 11 years ago, the world had a financial near-death experience as derivatives failed, banks failed and markets failed. The world economy come to a halt as 'finance' failed.

Remember, if finance fails then everything else fails and millions, even billions, of people may die as world supply chains collapse, commerce halts, shortages develop, grocery store shelves empty and people begin starving. Longer term, infrastructure fails-- including even electricity and utilities. I know it's unthinkable, but that's how bad it could get. That's not a prediction, though.

Debt, deficits, trade deficits, financial market and price inflation, repeated bubbles and the resulting instability (burst bubbles) and deep recessions have serially eroded our economy and culture since 1971 really, but especially since 2001. The result, in part, is that our society, our culture, our civic order, our work ethic, our moral bearings have all decayed and diminished. Our social contract has also been torn asunder. It's not just in the US, but all over the world.

China saved the world with it's massive debt-fueled spending spree in 2009 until about 2 years ago. China started "hitting the wall" in about 2013.  I've written many blog posts indicating how China and Chinese companies are now so indebted, that a financial crisis is basically a given. Also see my posts We're Reaching the End of a Long Road and The Path to Recession, Crisis and Global Depression.

US Federal Reserve Is Now Causing the 3rd financial crisis in 20 Years
Central Banks, in their efforts to “save” the world economy since 2009, have created a monster: a dysfunctional, extremely-speculative and highly-leveraged financial sector.  It's clear that 2019 stock market is becoming a big bubble, up some 30% in 2019 with earnings down ~5%.  The monster is awakening again.

After the Federal Reserve's effort to reduce it's balance sheet and raise interest rates in 2018, the US stock market started correcting strongly in December 2018. We learned that EVERY market was crashing with stocks: the high yield and other segments of the debt markets. This is the big problem and is why the Fed can't allow stocks to go down. If stocks go down, EVERYTHING goes down-- including the economy. There is a sense of terror in the government at what they've created. It's either "inflate the bubble" or face calamity (as outlined above). But when Europe (and/or China) goes into crisis, this may really cause panic by the monetary authorities.  The Fed are now fire fighters, with a policy of putting out every fire immediately.  After decades of fire fighting, tinder has been accumulating meaning that risk of an inferno keeps rising. Think Yellowstone in 1988, when the government decided to reverse course and allow some fires after 70 years of a "No Burn" policy.  Result: inferno!

A big fire has erupted again and it's not clear if it can be contained.

The massive liquidity injections that we have seen in Repo this fall have been seen before, first by the Fed in the run-up to Y2K in 1999, and also just before/during the 2008 crisis. Now we're seeing it again. The aftermath in the first two occasions included a 50% plunge (80% in Nasdaq stocks)in 2000/2002 and 60% decline in stock markets and a huge recession in 2008/'09. Central bank interest rates went down 600 bps and 500 bps respectively and was unable to stop the rout. Now, the Fed has a measily 150 bps to lower -- it's probably not enough. Euro has no capability to lower rates at all. China does but they, themselves, are teetering with bank and corporate bond failures proliferating.

The entire world has become a house of cards: China, Europe and even the US. As I mentioned, the size and scope of the current financial bubbles mean that "markets" are an existential threat to the world. One day, there will be that dreaded inferno.

Rather than face the inferno, the "authorities" keep propping up the equity bubble. From the Felder Report, stock market bullish sentiment (based on trader positioning, ie., the measure of Rydex traders’ assets in bear funds and money market funds relative to their assets in bull funds and sector funds --inverted in the figure below) has only been this high on two other occasions during the past 20 years: August 2018, January 2017. Bullish positioning in 2000 was lower than right now!

Remember, in 2000 and in 2008, the Fed cut rates 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively and it didn't stop the bursting bubble. Now they have just 1.5 percent to cut. And we've learned that ALL the risk markets will decline if stocks decline because they are ALL linked. The entire world is linked. The next recession may be a depression. But we've really been in a depression since 2009, one papered-over with financial manipulation and extremes of unsound money and unsound finance.

Central banks and "governments" are destroying markets, our economies, our societies--really everything with their never-ending manipulations and distortions. At some point the inferno will be too big.

Monday, December 16, 2019

Rising Risk of Financial and Economic Chaos

Words like "Armageddon," "financial crisis," and "devastating" are being used by leaders of central banks and economists these days. Mervyn King, former Bank of England governor, says that Central Banks don't have any ammunition to fight the next recession because interest rates are negative, zero or close to zero in most of the world.

From the Guardian in October 2019:
The world is sleepwalking towards a fresh economic and financial crisis that will have devastating consequences for the democratic market system, according to the former Bank of England governor Mervyn King…. King said the resistance to new thinking meant a repeat of the chaos of the 2008-09 period was looming…. He added that the US would suffer a “financial Armageddon” if its central bank – the Federal Reserve – lacked the necessary firepower to combat another episode similar to the sub-prime mortgage sell-off…. King said the world economy was stuck in a low growth trap and that the recovery from the slump of 2008-09 was weaker than that after the Great Depression.… King said it was time for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to begin talks behind closed doors with politicians to make legislators aware of how vulnerable they would be in the event of another crisis.
And McKinsey indicated recently that fully 1/2 of all banks in the world are too weak to survive a recession. That doesn't sound good! From Forbes:
More than half of the world’s banks are too weak to survive a downturn, according to a survey from consultancy McKinsey & Co.
A majority of banks globally may not be economically viable because their returns on equity aren’t keeping pace with costs, McKinsey said in its annual review of the industry released Monday. It urged firms to take steps such as developing technology, farming out operations and bulking up through mergers ahead of a potential economic slowdown.
“Risks to financial stability have continued to build up in Germany,” the Bundesbank warns in its Financial Stability Report
Many yield-starved banks have significantly expanded their lending to “relatively high-risk businesses” while simultaneously reducing their provisions against losses on lending. As the Bundesbank puts it, “there are signs that banks’ lending portfolios now include a higher share of enterprises whose credit ratings could deteriorate the most in the event of an economic downturn.”
Moody's has downgraded its outlook for German lenders from “stable” to “negative” as profitability and creditworthiness deteriorate in a negative interest rate environment.
It's no wonder EU banks are in trouble. Negative interest rates, bank bail-in rules and no possibility of cross-border bail-outs lead the reasons for depositors to flee EU banks. If you intended to destroy your banks and financial system, then the EU is doing everything imaginable to do it. And flee they are:

EU Bank Equities are at 20 Year Lows. Not Good.
The biggest and most important bank in the world, Deutsche Bank, is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy (but has been for awhile):

Repo Madness

It's possible that we will remember September 16, 2019 as the start of the next acute financial crisis. That day, the overnight rate for overnight inter-bank loans (Fed Funds) soared from the targeted 1.5 to 1.75% to 5% or so. It started with problems in the Repo markets that are used by non-banks like hedge funds and other banks for temporary liquidity. Repo distress spilled-over into Fed funds. But, since a sustained rise in Fed Funds rates would crash the financial system, the US Central Bank began an effort to flood the market with liquidity through Repos (very short term loans from overnight to 1 or 2 days to 42 days recently) to satisfy bank/non-bank demand. That Repo demand hasn't calmed down or declined since September, it's accelerated! 

The scale of the Federal Reserve bank intervention is astonishing. It's now more than 1/2 TRILLION dollars (and rising)!  How come the Fed was surprised?  How come there is complete silence about it?  

The big question regarding Fed Funds is why weren't the "dealer banks" (especially the big 4 Wall Street banks but there are 21 others), with whom the Fed gives money (reserves) thru open market operations, lending to other banks? After all, there are big profits for the big banks to lend at elevated fed fund rates if they indeed have excess reserves. But they didn't despite the profit potential of those trades. The Fed had to intervene as the normal liquidity transmission was broken. It still is (in repo)! In fact, the rate of repo operations/interventions have grown enormously!  (Fed funds and Repo are different markets but are both conduits for short-term liquidity. Only Repo is open to Hedge Funds as well as banks) 

This means that the inter-banking transmission system was not working and was/is frozen-up. This is the very definition of a financial crisis. Why? Banks are not lending to other banks possibly because of the counter-party risk of other banks, possibly due to risky banks in Europe or they don't have the money? Either way, the Fed has gone from lender of last resort to lender of FIRST resort especially in Repo. We are left to assume that one or more big banks or financial entities are near bankruptcy--probably in Europe. But The Fed is not saying anything about this, presumably to avoid creating a panic. Even in recent press conferences, Jay Powell is not even asked questions about this by reporters, presumably by agreement with the press to keep this all secret. 

All of these Repo operations are short term to very short term (overnight). Going into next year, all of these liquidity injections reverse.  It'll be very interesting to see what happens.  But as of right now, there is no lessening of liquidity demands. I find it quite worrisome. I think permanent QE is returning next year, perhaps QE forever.  

From GSN Economics: "Central Banks, in their efforts to “save” the world economy since 2009, have created a monster: a dysfunctional, extremely-speculative and highly-leveraged financial sector. All that is needed for it to unravel are rising rates in an some important, if obscure, corner of the capital markets—just like the Repo-markets."

Friday, November 22, 2019

AG Barr: The Left Is Undermining the Rule of Law and Constitution

From a great speech by AG Bill Barr to the Federalist Society found here.  I highly recommend reading the entire speech.  We are lucky as a country to have this man as Attorney General at this time.

"One of the ironies of today is that those who oppose this President constantly accuse this Administration of “shredding” constitutional norms and waging a war on the rule of law. When I ask my friends on the other side, what exactly are you referring to? I get vacuous stares, followed by sputtering about the Travel Ban or some such thing. While the President has certainly thrown out the traditional Beltway playbook, he was upfront about that beforehand, and the people voted for him. What I am talking about today are fundamental constitutional precepts. The fact is that this Administration’s policy initiatives and proposed rules, including the Travel Ban, have transgressed neither constitutional, nor traditional, norms, and have been amply supported by the law and patiently litigated through the Court system to vindication.

Indeed, measures undertaken by this Administration seem a bit tame when compared to some of the unprecedented steps taken by the Obama Administration’s aggressive exercises of Executive power – such as, under its DACA program, refusing to enforce broad swathes of immigration law.

The fact of the matter is that, in waging a scorched earth, no-holds-barred war of “Resistance” against this Administration, it is the Left that is engaged in the systematic shredding of norms and the undermining of the rule of law. This highlights a basic disadvantage that conservatives have always had in contesting the political issues of the day. It was adverted to by the old, curmudgeonly Federalist, Fisher Ames, in an essay during the early years of the Republic.

In any age, the so-called progressives treat politics as their religion. Their holy mission is to use the coercive power of the State to remake man and society in their own image, according to an abstract ideal of perfection. Whatever means they use are therefore justified because, by definition, they are a virtuous people pursing a deific end. They are willing to use any means necessary to gain momentary advantage in achieving their end, regardless of collateral consequences and the systemic implications. They never ask whether the actions they take could be justified as a general rule of conduct, equally applicable to all sides.

Conservatives, on the other hand, do not seek an earthly paradise. We are interested in preserving over the long run the proper balance of freedom and order necessary for healthy development of natural civil society and individual human flourishing. This means that we naturally test the propriety and wisdom of action under a “rule of law” standard. The essence of this standard is to ask what the overall impact on society over the long run if the action we are taking, or principle we are applying, in a given circumstance was universalized – that is, would it be good for society over the long haul if this was done in all like circumstances?

For these reasons, conservatives tend to have more scruple over their political tactics and rarely feel that the ends justify the means. And this is as it should be, but there is no getting around the fact that this puts conservatives at a disadvantage when facing progressive holy far, especially when doing so under the weight of a hyper-partisan media."

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Blacks, Hispanics, Illegals Dominate Welfare Handouts

From American Renaissance article "Race, Welfare and Media Lies"


Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) is what most people think of when they say “welfare.” It pays cash directly to users. The amount varies by state. In 2018 (the most recent data available), there were over 2.27 million recipients, who got nearly $17 billion. Here’s the racial breakdown (Table 10):
Race % of Recipients% of Population
American Indian1.5%1.3%
Whites are clearly an absolute minority of recipients: just 27.2 percent of the total. There are more blacks and Hispanics on welfare than whites. On a per capita basis, blacks are 4.8 times more likely than whites to get TANF, and Hispanics are 4.7 times more likely. Asians are only two-thirds as likely.
Interestingly, over 85 percent of TANF recipients are single or divorced, and only 13 percent are married. Conservatives have long argued that marriage reduces poverty.

Food Stamps

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is better known as food stamps. In 2017, a staggering 42.1 million people got free food at a cost of $68 billion dollars. The racial breakdown (page 22):
Race% of Recipients% of Population
American Indian1.4%1.3%
Unknown/Didn’t Say16.8%NA
Again, whites are an absolute minority of food stamp users. The 16.8 percent of “race unknown or didn’t say” is high, but they are unlikely to be white. An even bigger story is that 8.2 percent of recipients are children of non-citizens. A further 8.6 percent are refugees or non-citizens. We import food-stamp users.


Medicaid is health insurance for poor people. An incredible 74 million people were on it in 2017 (up from 46 million in 2001). It is paid for by a combination of state and federal funds, and on average it accounts for a crushing 22 percent of state budgets. In 2018, Medicaid cost over $592 billion, and the racial breakdown for users in 2017 was as follows:
Race% of Recipients% of Population
American Indian1%0.8%
Again, whites are an absolute minority, though their percentage of recipients for this expensive program is relatively high.

Section 8 and other Public Housing

In 2017, there were nearly 5 million households in the US getting housing assistance through the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Most of them got Section 8 vouchers or lived in public housing. Blacks are massively over-represented.
Over 1 million people live in public housing. The racial breakdown is as follows:
Race% of Recipients% of Population
American Indian1%0.8%
The “stereotype” of blacks in public housing is not false. There are more blacks than people of any other race in the projects, and on a per capita basis, they are 6.7 times more likely to be in them than whites.
Most of the other housing programs involve Section 8 vouchers. A category marked “All Relevant Programs,” includes Section 8 and includes 2.8 million recipients. Here is the race breakdown:
Race% of Recipients% of Population
American Indian1%0.8%
Blacks are 7.1 times more likely than whites to use this benefit and Hispanics are 2.3 times more likely. Asians are only 77 percent as likely.
There are other welfare programs, but these four are the most important and paint a good picture of who is on the dole. American Renaissance has run articles on this since 1993, all of which show the same racial pattern:
It is clear that blacks and Hispanics take a disproportionate amount of government handouts. Who pays? Nearly half of US households pay no income taxes, but it is hard to get racial breakdowns of who does pay. I have seen several estimates, but none appears to be definitive. Perhaps the most considered estimate is from the blog Alternative Hypothesis, which estimates whites paid more than 75 percent of taxes in 2014.