Friday, October 26, 2012

Presidential Polls Are Skewed

Many pollsters are using highly unusual Democratic turnout in 2008 as their basis for sampling and predictions this year.  The problem is that this is totally wrong for this election-the Democratic enthusiasm is much lower than 2008 and Republican enthusiasm is much higher.  Most of these polls are misleading the public; giving too optimistic results to the Obama camp.  So slim leads shown by Obama in some of the swing states are giving the Democrat a fictitious lead.

One possible problem with this exaggeration is that when Obama loses, there could be violence in response to the results as if Romney somehow stole the election.  It could even be a GOP blowout, which would be more consistent with the "shellacking" in the 2010 election when the GOP regained the House.

It goes beyond voter enthusiasm.  The shear numbers of Republicans has drastically increased since 2008 compared to Democrats according to Gallup data.   From Mike Flynn at Breitbart:
In 2008, according to Gallup, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.
If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.
Keep in mind, the Gallup survey suggests that voter turnout among Obama's biggest supporters, i.e. minorities and young voters, will generally match 2008 levels. Obama's problem is that, relatively speaking, there just aren't that many of these voters. Voters under 30 will make up 13% of the electorate, one point below '08 and even with '04. Minorities will make up 20%, up 5 from '04 and only up 1 point from '08.

Obama's chief problem is that everyone else in the electorate has become much more Republican.
Gallup, using a larger sampling than other polls and better grasp of the current electorate,  is already showing Romney consistently polling above 50% nationally with the latest numbers saying Romney 51% and Obama 46%.   This lead is beyond the polls +/- 2% margin of error meaning that Romney has the lead in the nationwide popular vote.  Rasmussen shows a similar but slightly smaller lead.

You'd better get used to saying President Romney.

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