Sunday, June 23, 2013

White Minority Seals Fate of Slow US Decline

There are reports from a Reuter's article "Whites to become Minority by 2050"  that minority births are now in the majority, meaning that by 2050, the US population will be mostly black, Latino (and Asian) for the first time.  The projected breakdown is 47% White, 9% Asian, 29% Latino and 14% Black.

Currently Blacks and Latinos make up about 13% and 14% of the population.

America Has a Minority Drop-Out Problem 

But what is worse, the overall 4 year high school drop-out rate for Blacks and Hispanics is about 40% and 32% respectively down from up to 50% a decade ago.  Recent studies by Becky Pettit have shown that the black drop out rate is 40% too low, since no one is counting all of the young blacks in jail/prison! The drop out rate is much higher!  And you know that there are absolutely no jobs available for high school drop-outs.  With competition from Asia to continue and no action by US government to encourage businesses to return here, there will continue to be minimal jobs for these people.

Minorities Score Lower On IQ and Other Academic Tests

Minority dropouts are high in part because Black and Hispanics score significantly lower in IQ tests--which measures academic intelligence.  Blacks and Latinos have reported median IQs of about 85 and 89, respectively (refer to my blog "Blacks Score Lower on All Academic Tests").  Once we have 53% minorities and 47% whites in 2043, the nation's IQ will have dropped to 94 from about 96 now.   That doesn't sound like much, but it means significantly larger number of intellectually deficient and severely deficient people in the population and also significantly less gifted and nearly-gifted individuals. More intellectually deficient individuals and significantly less exceptional intellects may be enough to tip our typically 50/50 politics into the "populist zone" and send our nation into a typical Latin or African trajectory.

America Needs Smart Immigrants, Not Dumb Ones

Much of the increased Latino population is projected to be from immigration.  But lack of real and intelligent immigration reform will bring mostly low qualified immigrants.   America needs smart immigrants not low-IQ, low skill, low competence immigrants from Mexico, Honduras and El Salvador.  We need an immigration point system that ALL potential emigres are ranked according to skills, academic skills/degrees and any and all other desireable characteristics.  See my blog Bring On an Immigration Point System--Send Home the 11 Million Illegals to see a recommendation for an objective immigration point system that ranks ALL potential immigrants in an objective point system.

The Pull of Populism Is Our Nation's Biggest Threat

Black and Hispanic cultures both have strong cultural histories of voting for populist politicians with the worst possible agendas. Just look at any Latin or African country. Sadly, even when things look promising in any country on the African and South American continents, eventually failure or mediocrity, at best, prevails. This is clearly due to maladministration. Argentina is a great example with a strong (and intelligent) European immigrant history.  It once had the 7th highest GDP in the world in 1900, now ranks at 40th.  Refer to the graph below comparing Argentina to Australia and New Zealand.  Even now, Argentina is ruled by a disastrous "Chavista" and "populist" government bringing the country to the verge of national bankruptcy and an inflationary collapse (again!)   Obama is another populist charlatan, a Chavista-lite, and may very well be just the beginning of this trend toward populist leaders in the US.  How did he get in and stay in?  It was because minorities "bought into" his populist message.

Yes, it's possible that there may be some good Presidents and Congresses, but slowly the trend for the country is almost certainly down--due to the bad choices and bad governance typical of what you see in African and Latin countries.  When 1/2 the country is Latin or Black, you can expect the country to look more 3rd world.   It sounds racist but it's just common sense and it's just the way it is.  South Texas looks like Mexico. That's a fact.  Don't you think Detroit looks like Africa already?  Sadly, Detroit looks much worse than African cities---it looks post-apocalyptic!

100 Year History of Argentina Economy Compared to Australia and NZ

From Reuter's "Whites to become Minority by 2050"
The U.S. population will grow to 438 million in 2050 from 296 million in 2005 if current population trends continue, the Pew Research Center study found.  Non-Hispanic whites would account for 47 percent of the total in 2050, it concluded.
By that time, one in every five Americans will be a foreign-born immigrant, compared to one in eight in 2005.
"Of the 117 million people added to the population in this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren," the study said.
While the white population, with its lower fertility rate, ages, the Latino population, the nation's largest minority, will triple in size. Latinos will be responsible for 60 percent of the population growth until 2050.  They will account for 29 percent of the population, or 128 million in 2050, up from 14 percent now, the study said.
"The number of whites will increase, but only by 4 percent," said D'Vera Cohn, one of the report's authors.
The Asian population will almost double in percentage terms, from 5 to 9 percent, while blacks will remain around 13 percent of the total, the report said.

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