Sunday, August 4, 2013

Arab Civilization Collapsing As We Speak

I don't know why the media labeled the unrest in the Middle East in 2011 as the "Arab Spring" because I knew immediately that things would only get worse not better. Now, of course, Arab hell has arrived.

Lt. Colonel James G. Lacey wrote an article entitled "The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization" in 2005 and made a prescient prediction about the end of Arab Civilization. That was well before the outbreak of turmoil and death that broke lose across North Africa and into the middle east starting some 6 years later. Things have only worsened. Egypt is again tilting toward Civil War as tyranny of one type is replaced with yet more tyranny.  Syria is in a civil war. Turkey recently saw an outbreak of civil unrest due to the increasingly autocratic Islamist Erdogan.

Colonel Lacey said that it's Arab culture, not Islamic culture, that is undergoing collapse. I disagree somewhat with this assertion because it's hard to separate the two.  In a way, Arab culture IS Islamic culture. For instance, the authoritarianism of Islam is mirrored by the autocratic Arab dictators. Also overpopulation is found in every Islamic country.  Arab countries, dominated by Islam, have made the systematic choice to teach religion rather than teach math, science and technology.  Islam's ideas about women has meant the widespread failure to educate women. 10's of millions of women are illiterate. Repression, dictators, and ignorance have led to economic stagnation, falling living standards, few economic opportunities, and repressive and corrupt governments. No wonder democracy has failed to take root there! Democracy depends on an educated electorate.

Colonel Lacey made the point that Arab culture is a very young population due to exploding population growth --also due to "Islamic" culture. But this group finds itself without any economic opportunities. True to his prediction, this group is the very population that exploded into the streets in recent years.

Arab population is young because in "Islamic" culture, it's quite common for families to have 10 to 12 children. Children are the "social security" system for Islamic families. I've seen this for myself in Indonesia. Because there are few job opportunities (for the reasons mentioned above), the overpopulation drives down wages that impoverish everyone. It's not only a social time bomb and an economic disaster but an environmental disaster as well.

Arab youth frustration has upended dictators but other dictators emerge. Fundamental reforms of institutions have proven impossible because of corruption and a serious lack of intellectual capability. The economies of these countries are amazing poor. From Lacey,
In economic terms we have already commented that the combined weight of the Arab states is less than that of Spain. Strip oil out of Mideast exports and the entire region exports less than Finland.....Per capita GDP is $1500 or less than in the 1970s.
For decades, the only way that Palestinians have survived is due to world-wide provided "welfare."  Now, after the Morsi ouster, Egypt collected a cool $12 billion in aid from Saudi Arabia and other countries. So now Egypt is completely dependent on welfare too.  If and when oil prices decline precipitously, the rest of the dominoes may fall.

While Arab Muslims are groveling in a cesspool of hell, the Jews are working on their 159th Nobel Prize.

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