Trumped-up Trial Leaves Zimmerman Bankrupted

The trial, that was never supposed to happen, has financial fall-out for all participants that most people don't think about.

The Zimmerman trial itself was the result of a phony race-baiting exercise and uproar by discredited black leaders---including Obama----who demanded that the State of Florida prosecute (and persecute) George Zimmerman despite the fact that the local jurisdiction didn't see a case worth prosecuting.  See my blog The Failed Political Prosecution of Zimmerman.  It was a Kangaroo trial set up in an attempt to impose a sort of "mob justice" trumped-up in part by the President himself and backed up, of course, by Eric Holder. 

Mark O'Mara, who was George Zimmerman's lawyer, has filed to recoup some $300,000 of the non-lawyer expenses from the state.  This debt is on the shoulders of George Zimmerman.  From Fox News,

Since he was found not guilty, Zimmerman is entitled under a Florida law to recoup the defense costs, minus private attorney fees, said his lawyer Mark O'Mara. It also says that any costs already paid can be refunded with the approval of a judge

Mark O'Mara will not get paid anything since he took the case pro bono. Had he not donated his time, his bill would have been over $1 million for over 16 months of work. We're not counting any other legal counsel costs that might have been incurred. In short, everyone involved in the trial has been financially busted.

Think about that when Holder called for yet another case against Zimmerman (see my blog here).   It is the height of irresponsibility.  It's entirely unfair that Big Government, with unlimited resources wants to further persecute exonerated individuals---even after a jury has spoken.  And this by the nation's Attorney General!  Nobody can withstand or afford such an onslaught.  Nobody should.  Shame on you Holder.   Shame on you Obama.   Shame on you Al Sharpton.  Shame on all of you and all of your supporters!  All of you have lost my support!  All of you are unworthy of my support.

Obama Boxed-In By Syria Red Line Talk

You would have thought that we learned our lesson in Afghanistan and Iraq about how treacherous is our involvement in middle east regime change.  The devil you know is better than the one you don't know.

I guess there is one case where military intervention was justified and successful: the war between Serbia and Kosovo during the Clinton administration in the late 90's.  Serbia and their genocidal regime was brought down thus saving the lives of countless Muslims.  It involved all the NATO allies and the UN and it did involve troops on the ground.  Muslims really paid us back for helping them in 2001.

Along came the Arab uprisings which revolutionaries termed "Arab spring" but now has predictably morphed into "Arab hell."  The Obama Administration got caught up with the revolutionary fervor in Libya (leading from behind of course) and we turned against the 'reformed' Ghaddafi.  What did we get in return?  We got more chaos and the death of our Ambassador and staff (and the subsequent cover-up scandal).

Obama also got caught up with the protests against Mubarak in Egypt and called for Mubarak to step down (it was lose-lose so there wasn't a good choice).  What has followed is a disaster for the country as one form of tyranny gets replaced by Islamic tyranny then back to miltiary tyranny.  Mubarak, as it turned out, had held the country together (with an iron fist), kept the Muslim brotherhood in check and kept the peace with Israel for decades.  Now Egypt is basically on the verge of collapse except for international 'welfare' from the Gulf States.

In every case of Arab unrest and revolution the subsequent result has been a worse situation.  Arab civilization is indeed collapsing. 

I'm told that the upcoming missile strikes in Syria are not intended for "regime change" but once you lob missiles, you don't know what will happen.  The fact that we are arming and training the Syrian resistance belies the claim that the punitive missile strikes aren't intended for regime change.

Obama stated that he would not get involved in Syria unless they used chemical weapons.  Now, the administration claims that Assad has used these weapons.  I don't know if it's true.  It's reminiscent of the claims of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in Iraq.

Maybe it's more like a case of the President being seen to "act presidential" to help his ailing poll numbers.  After all, his only accomplishments in his presidency are in tatters: ObamaCare and Dodd Frank both aren't being implemented and/or completed. The economy has not recovered even after $6 Trillion in deficit spending and $3 Trillion in money printing. This administration keeps getting slapped down by the courts in a wide variety of cases. Both Obama and Holder keep showing how out of step, out of touch, and how inept they are. You could say that they entire administration is in tatters. It's a miracle that his approval ratings are in the 40s.  Apparently many people are still falling for Obama's (smoothly-delivered) bullshit. 

So, now that the administration is stating that chemical weapons were used, they have no choice but to act.  Such is the consequence of drawing "red lines"in the sand.  Our country's credibility, already low, is even more on the line.  If Obama doesn't act, he'll be perceived as weak (which he is and everyone knows it).

So, expect some kind of attacks on Syria from our "peace" president, which may open Pandora's box of reprisals in the months ahead from Iran, Russia and their proxies.  Get ready for unintended consequences as we intervene in another civil war and roll the dice on what happens next.  Recent history shows that everything gets much worse after our involvement, which in turn requires even more involvement.   All this to save Muslims from other Muslims who all hate us?  I say let them destroy themselves.

I've learned my lessons.  But this administration, full of neophytes and imbeciles, have proven to be immune to any lessons of any kind.  That's what happens when idiots come to power.

Jay Z's Big Pimpin'

To all you whitey's out there who are not in touch with mainstream American black culture, I thought I'd enlighten you a bit.  Here's a piece from mainstream black artist Jay Z 

From Wikipedia,

"Big Pimpin'" was the most commercially successful single from Jay-Z's fourth album, as it reached #18 on The Billboard Hot 100 and #1 on the Rhythmic Top 40 chart.  In Rolling Stone's updated 2010 list of "The 500 Greatest Songs of All Time", the song ranked at #467.

 The video got 5.1 million hits on YouTube.  Enjoy.  Be Enlightened.

  

Here's the lyrics from Metrolyrics so you can fully appreciate this artistic achievement. 

Uh, uh, uh, uh, it's big pimpin' baby
It's big pimpin', spendin' G's
Feel me, uh huh uh, uh huh
Ge-ge-geyeah, geyeah
Ge-ge-geyeah, geyeah

You know I thug 'em, fuck 'em, love 'em, leave 'em
'Cause I don't fuckin' need 'em
Take 'em out the hood, keep 'em lookin good
But I don't fuckin' feed 'em

First time they fuss I'm breezin'
Talki'n 'bout, what's the reasons?
I'm a pimp in every sense of the word, bitch
Better trust than believe 'em

In the cut where I keep 'em
Till I need a nut, till I need to beat the guts
Then it's, beep beep and I'm pickin' 'em up
Let 'em play with the dick in the truck

Many chicks wanna put Jigga fist in cuffs
Divorce him and split his bucks
Just because you got good head, I'ma break bread
So you can be livin' it up

Shit I parts with nothin', y'all be frontin'
Me give my heart to a woman
Not for nothin', never happen
I'll be forever mackin'

Heart cold as assassins, I got no passion
I got no patience and I hate waitin'
Hoe get yo' ass in and let's R I I I I I I D E
Check 'em out now

Financial Crisis Coming Soon from China?

In my recent blog in June 2013, Worldwide Financial Bubbles Beginning to Burst?,  I mention that Fitch has called China's financial system the "worst financial credit bubble in modern world history."

Debt has soared there in recent years and has found it's way into a "shadow" financial system apart from the government controlled enterprises.  From that blog:

It's likely that bursting bubbles in Asia will be the trigger for a larger world-wide financial bust. Asian bubbles include: China's credit market bubbles (official and shadow markets), dramatic, China and Hong Kong's property/debt bubbles, Thailand's property/debt bubble, Australia's property and debt bubbles, and inflated emerging market equity/bond markets all threaten a similar repeat of the Asia Crisis of 1997. When bubbles burst, banking system crises and currency crises are sure to follow.  Capital flight from emerging markets have already started and will aggravate the problems.  So, get ready for huge financial turmoil in the coming months.

Maybe I'm a little early in my prediction.  You could say that I'm on "debt-crisis watch."  In my opinion, the nexus of the next wave of the financial crisis may very well come from China (or Japan).   

Now, from Guggenheim Partners, comes a brief article and a fascinating chart showing the rise of debt in countries that subsequently had financial crises. You can see from the chart that China may very well be reaching a level that has marked financial crises in other countries.  Some people peg China's debt level at 200% of GDP, not the 170% shown on the graph. The Chinese themselves might not even know! 

Non-Financial Debt to GDP

 From the Guggenheim article, they go on to explain:

A rapid increase in private sector leverage in a relatively short period of time often presages major financial crises. Historical examples include the collapse of the Japanese property bubble in 1990, the financial crisis in South Korea in 1997, and the most recent crises in the United States, Britain, and the euro zone, which all happened after private sector debt surged to or above 170 percent of GDP. Chinese private sector leverage has reached this significant level. Over the past four years, non-financial private sector debt in China has more than doubled, primarily driven by massive corporate borrowing endorsed by government officials to maintain economic growth rates. Although the recent data show signs of a stabilization in the Chinese economy, the elevated debt burden should continue to cast doubt over its growth sustainability.

My Adjusted ETF Portfolio Mix

In a recent blog called Easy Investment Portfolio Management Using ETFs, I talk about how the advent of ETFs has enabled small investors to participate in domestic and international stocks and bonds at very low costs.

I included my current IRA ETF portfolio mix and made a projection for converting my taxable account.  If you remember, I said that I'm waiting for a market correction, hopefully this fall, before converting the portfolio to an ETF portfolio.  Something's changed.   In a blog called Jeremy Grantham's Expected Asset Returns--Next 7 Years, Jeremy Grantham, a very respected investor, confirms what I suspected; that US stocks are pricey with potential negative 7 year returns.  The other takeaway is that international stocks and bonds look cheaper.

Therefore I've adjusted my projected taxable account ETF portfolio to reflect more international exposure. (I've added int'l stocks but haven't researched emerging market bonds--I'll post another blog with the result of that research).  Remember, I'm waiting for a hefty correction this fall to convert from my cautious mutual fund portfolio in my taxable account.   Here goes:

SPY     Large Cap 2% yield                                                                      12.5%
VIG     Vanguard Large Cap US Dividend Appreciation 2% yield          12.5%
VXF     US Market-Total market excluding S&P500                               15%
VB        US Small Caps                                                                              5%
EEM    Emerg Mkts 2% yield                                                                    5%
VUE     World Markets excluding US stocks                                             5%
AGG    Aggregate Tot Bond 2.85%                                                            0% for now
IEI        3 to 7 year Treasury bond 0.6%                                                     0% for now
BIV      Vanguard Interm Muni 3.2% plus cap gain distributions               0% for now
MUB    Long Munis 3%                                                                              0% for now

Cash                                                                                                          45%

The breakdown is as follows:

Stocks   55%
Bonds   35%
Cash     10%

For stocks, there's 10% emerging markets and a total of 20% international stocks.  Go to Fidelity or your preferred site to research each of these ETFs before investing.  Also, Market Watch has some good articles on Lazy ETF Portfolios that are good "food for thought."  I'll update this information if I make changes.

Jeremy Grantham's Expected Asset Returns--Next 7 Years

Jeremy Grantham,  one of the most respected investors in the world, has come out with a report that ranks various asset classes for their expected inflation-adjusted performance over the next 7 years.   His company, GMO, manages about $100 Billion for investors.

From The Big Picture, I've included a graph of his projections.  The takeaway is that US stocks are very pricey, with negative expected returns of -2% for large US Stocks and -3.5% for Small US Stocks.  He says that "high quality" US stocks should return about 3% per annum.  I'm not sure what he means, but I'm interpreting "high quality" as large cap stocks with international exposure like those in the S&P 500.  Normal equity returns are above +6% per annum (excluding dividends). 

But, according to his analysis, international and emerging stock markets are cheap(er) with +2% and +6% expected returns, respectively.  Notice that emerging market debt is cheaper too.  He includes timber as an alternative asset class as a sort of 'teaser.'  I guess he's saying that commodities might be a good investment.   All in all, the world's stock markets are too expensive.  If you can wait for a 20% correction, then expected returns would be much better.  If you're patient, you'll get it.  I think that such a correction may very well be underway now and that there may be a selling "climax" in October of this year--not unlike 1987.

Here's the graphic (Click graphic to enlarge).

Projected Annualized Real Returns Of Assets Over 7 Years (from GMO)

   

Given this information,  I need to adjust my projected portfolio mix shown in my blog Easy Investment Portfolio Management Using ETFs to a mix more heavily weighted in international and  emerging market stocks and bonds.  Here's the new and adjusted mix:  My Adjusted ETF Portfolio Mix.  Again, I intend to wait for a correction this fall.  

Black "Thug" Culture Strikes Again

From Rush Limbaugh, speaking about the racial assassination of Australian Chris Lane in Oklahoma,

..this is just cold-blooded, first-degree-recreational, for-the-fun-of-it, because-they-were-bored, murder. Two black guys and a white guy in the group. No matter where you look in the media, it's not a racial event. Nothing about is racist. This is the epitome of media irresponsibility. It's a classic illustration of just what role the mainstream media is playing in the destruction of American culture and society.

He's entirely correct. Contrast this case versus the Zimmerman/Martin case where every one of the usual suspects, ie,, media, entertainment, discredited black leaders, discredited politicians got on the race wagon.  Trayvon was very likely a thug plain and simple.  Zimmerman might very well had died if he didn't fight back.  In this case, I had to go to an Australian paper to find coverage of this story that exposes the racial component of this hate crime. From the Herald Sun in Australia, they report that the 15 year old James Edwards (he deeply deserves the epithet "nigger") tweeted hate messages bragging about killing white people after the Trayvon Martin episode.

Edwards posted statements on his Twitter feed including a comment on April 29 where he tweeted "90% of white ppl are nasty. #HATE THEM".
Edwards also weighed when George Zimmerman was acquitted over the death of Trayvon Martin.

"Ayeee I knocced out 5 woods since Zimmerman court!:) lol sh*t ima keep sleepin sh*t! #ayeeee."

"Woods" is derogatory slang for white people. The feed also contains tweets glorifying violence, guns and gangs.

Hmm..you could say that Obama and all the other race-baiters encouraged him (and then).

Black Thug Culture

This country has an epidemic of crime by black men that is mostly ignored by dunghead media.  From my blog Ultimate Political Correctness: Blacks Commit the Majority of Gun Murders:

Blacks make up 13% of the population (both sexes) but commit 57% of gun homicides. It's even worse since it's more like 6.5% of the population (males) committing 57% of the gun homicides. Where is this discussion in the media?  Where is the program or plan to alleviate this problem?

Further, there is a large portion of the black population that is so stupid that their brains don't even work correctly--leading to criminality.  On top of that stupidity, black "culture"is incredibly decrepit, hate-filled and decayed.  Their "crap" culture is worsening too while white apologists and bullshit black leaders continue to blame anyone but themselves for their sorry state.  Heck, young people even "glorify" the criminal rap "culture." 

Along Comes Black Pastor James Manning

"80% of black kids are born to a family without a father and are raised by Hoochie-Mamas on food stamps."  Those aren't my words, they are from James Manning, a black pastor from Harlem.  Check out his "refreshing" message that stands out in such stark contrast to our politically correct, bullshit media world/culture.  Have a listen.  He might go a little too far, but I'd rather hear his version rather than our bullshit, namby-pamby, politically correct national media charade.

Gallup Data Shows Sharp Rise in Unemployment in August 2013

Uh oh, we have a problem.  The latest data from Gallup shows that unemployment has risen to 8.9% from 7.9% in just one month.

Check out this chart that I made from Gallup data showing unemployment trends for the latest month (July 20,2013 to August 20, 2013).   It's not seasonally adjusted like BLS numbers, but a trend is a trend.  In this case, the trend is not your friend.   With all of the manipulation of data at the BLS, I like the raw data from Gallup.  Yep, I trust the Gallup organization more than the Government.

The last data from Gallup is that "Underemployment" is at 17.9%.  Some "recovery." There's a chance that we've entered a recession.

 

ObamaCare's Bureaucratic and Administrative Nightmare

Below is an administrative flow diagram of ObamaCare. (click to enlarge).  An amazing thing is that it only shows 1/3rd of the new administrative requirements.

  

I guess when you substitute this version of "Central Planning" from our 'Politburo' for 1/6th of the economy, it's going to get mighty bureaucratic and expensive.   The new law creates 68 grant programs, 47 bureaucratic entities, 29 demonstration or pilot programs, 6 regulatory systems, 6 compliance standards and 2 entitlements.

Is it any wonder that no one can figure out how to implement it?  Has this administration met any deadlines in it's implementation?

If you really want to get upset, you can read in more detail how it's supposed to work here.  The truth is that it's already not working and will never work.  It's already falling apart, see my blog:  ObamaCare Zombie Staggers Forward.

The other sad truth is that it probably would be cheaper to send vouchers for insurance policies to our uninsured, with reasonably high deductibles, to expand healthcare coverage and avoid all of the extra overhead.  Let's say that you want to cover 33 million uninsured people which is more than ObamaCare will cover.  The cost of such a policy for each individual should be about $250 per month or about $3,000 per year.  It wouldn't pay everything, (but Medicaid doesn't either) but shields people from financial ruin.  Take 33 million times $3,000/year = $100 billion per year.  That's right, it would be cost only $100 billion per year or $1 Trillion over 10 years.  Right now the ObamaCare nightmare is going to cost at least $2.7 Trillion over 10 years (always a rising target) and cover less than 33 million.

Profiling is Practical Not Racist

 Mayor Bloomberg Explains That 'Stop and Frisk' is Not Profiling

Mayor Bloomberg took to the Washington Post to explain that he doesn't tolerate racial profiling but then explains that that's exactly their approach.  He explains that he puts police in the neighborhoods where most of the crimes are committed.  Here's Mayor Bloomberg from the Washington Post:

The NYPD targets its manpower to the areas that suffer the highest crime levels. Ninety percent of all people killed in our city — and 90 percent of all those who commit the murders and other violent crimes — are black and Hispanic. It is shameful that so many elected officials and editorial writers have been largely silent on these facts.

Yes, it's a shame that elected officials and editorial writers are largely silent on these facts.  It's called political correctness.  Political correctness is essentially a muzzle on free speech.  In our politically correct culture, it's difficult to speak the truth.  It's sort of a culturally and Leftist imposed totalitarianism.   I say bullshit to that.

Nevertheless, some liberal judge has imposed a "monitor" at the NYPD to check for unjustified "stops" even though only 9 "stops" out of millions done in the past decade were deemed unjustified.

Profiling In Trayvon Martin Case Was Not Racism

In my blog Blaming Race is Just An Excuse Now, I state that the FBI interviewed dozens of people regarding racism in the Zimmerman trial and didn't find any.

Black people complain about 'profiling' as racist, but it's not.  The truth is that this country has a huge problem with criminality in young black men and black men in general.  Black men are prone to be criminals at rate at least 6 to 7 times more often than whites.  For example, some 11.4% of the entire black male youth population (aged 20 to 34) is in prison vs. 1.8% for whites. Furthermore, 37% of young black men (aged 20 to 34) without a high school diploma, are in prison.  One in nine black men is in prison at this very moment.  This isn't racist, it's just the facts.

Congress Exempts Staffers from ObamaCare

When ObamaCare was passed into law, Chuck Grassley managed to get an amendment passed which required Congressmen and their staffers to be covered under the ObamaCare law. The amendment passed and therefore became law.  From SFGate, Grassley said at the time that:

"It's only fair and logical that administration leaders and congressional staff, who fought so hard to overhaul America's health care system, experience it for themselves. If the reforms are as good as promised, then they'll know it firsthand. If there are problems, public officials will be in a position to really understand the problems, as they should."

Commonsense right? But we increasingly don't live with a lawful government. What laws say apparently doesn't mean much anymore.

Kathleen Sebelius and Obama, immediately after the law was passed, have unlawfully issued some 1470 waivers to various corporations to exempt them from the requirements of the law.  Obama recently, and unlawfully, waived income-verification for purposes of determining government (taxpayer) subsidies--meaning the government will give away "free money" to anyone and everyone to get them into the program!  (How can you refuse?) Then, despite what the law says, Obama has delayed the unpopular requirement that businesses provide healthcare to their employees. (Never mind that this is the key feature of the law)

Now, Congress has also skirted the law by exempting their 11,000 staffers from ObamaCare coverage by using an administrative "trick."  Everyone in Congress has had "Cadillac" coverage that is already subsidized by taxpayers.  Thanks to the Obama administration, Congress itself will now also continue to get a significant subsidy from the taxpayers to pay for their ObamaCare premiums even though they make $174,000 per year (in order to avoid a pay cut).  It must be nice, huh?  I don't recall $174K per year as being anywhere near the poverty levels that trigger ObamaCare subsidies?  The required income levels have been unilaterally waived by Emporer Obama.  Apparently it doesn't matter what the law says.

Apparently what's good for goose is not good for the gander.  Congress can wiggle away from their own handiwork but the American people can't.

Easy Investment Portfolio Management Using ETFs

The advent of stock market ETFs (exchange traded funds) has changed the investment environment for individual investors in recent years.  No longer do you need professional investor advice to to have a diversified portfolio of both stocks and bonds and you don't need expensive mutual funds either.  Previously investors were forced to use mutual funds (with substantial "loads" and expense ratios of 1 % or more) or buy a selection of individual shares (or bonds) to participate in the stock (or bond) market(s).

ETFs allow individual investors to buy securities that match the various stock and bond market indices at very low expense ratios.  Not only do they have very low expense ratios compared to mutual funds but ETFs trade like stocks for less than $10 for a single trade.  This general approach of creating portfolios using ETFs is also known as Lazy Portfolios as discussed in Market Watch. There's much food for thought at that link.   There's nothing lazy about them however.  They are buy and hold portfolios that only require re-balancing from time to time.

Active Portfolio Management Doesn't Work

There's a saying, "you can't beat the market" by picking stocks on your own.  It's true. Even most hedge fund or mutual fund managers do not consistently beat the S&P 500 index.  Then they charge big fees of 1 to 2% of your portfolio per annum for their under-performance!  On the other hand, the management fees for most ETFs is only about 0.2% per annum---or about 10 times less.

So, if the professionals can't beat the market, then just buy the market!  Now the small investor can "buy the market" easily now using ETFs.  For instance, you can buy the entire S&P 500 index by buying the ETF "stock" with the symbol SPY.  It trades at a price of 169 today.  So, you can buy $100,000 of this security (index) with a single transaction costing less than $10.

Basic Portfolio Management

Most investors know that 60% stocks and 40% bonds is a classic portfolio mix that is widely recommended.  If you're a young man of 28 years old, then you might want more like 70% stocks and 30% bonds.  The beauty of this type of mix is that when stocks go down 'hard', bonds usually go up 'hard' to balance the portfolio.  When stocks soar, bonds usually drop.  Also, in normal times, bonds add 4 or 5% interest income on top of 3 or 4% annual bond price appreciation.   Stocks typically yield 3% in addition to an average of about 6 or 7% price appreciation (per annum).  However, we don't live in typical times----more about that below.