Wind/Solar Needs Almost 100% Conventional Power Backup

As dower demand Grows to 'fuel' electric cars, adding Wind+Solar generation requires nearly 100% convention power plant backups PLUS grid modifications.

Figure 1 shows the electricity demand situation during the week of Texas’ famous freeze and disastrous rolling-blackouts during freezing weather during Feb 7-14, 2021

Figure 1: Texas’ Grid Situation From Feb 7 to Feb 14, 2021

Even before wind turbines froze with ice coating, the combination of wind and solar providing 50% of electricity demand on a good day, the next day, the W+S power dropped to less than 5% of the electrical demand. This was during normal operation; well before freezing wind turbines. This is essentially the problem with wind and solar: there are wide swings in their capacity.

Solar never works at night and some nights might have calm winds.

This means conventional fossil or nuclear power (or massively expensive batteries?) will always need to be available as a backup for 90 to 100% of peak electricity demand to avoid blackouts/rolling blackouts.

As demand rises for electrical power to power electric cars and population growth, and wind and solar generation is added, the same amount of fossil or nuclear plants must ALSO BE ADDED as “back-up” for the intermittent energy sources. This means that you automatically double the amount of capital allocated for the virtual signaling of using increasing amounts of W+S.

And if you subsidize wind and solar with subsidies, subsidies will be required for the required conventional fossil/nuclear generation additions. It doubles the cost of power. And that’s before grid modifications—which no one is talking about.

You also are nearly doubling operating costs because conventional power plants must remain in a “hot standby” mode to come online quickly. These plants will ALSO require subsidies. So, we’re really talking about TRIPLING the cost of power.

That’s why Germany’s and Denmark’s electric power costs $0.37 to $0.40 per kilowatt hour (current) vs about $0.11 per kw-hr in the US. See below:

Another Example

Bloomberg had a light and breezy fantasy analysis about how well wind and solar has served Texas in the recents weeks with extremely high temperatures and huge power demand for air conditioning.

There’s nothing really wrong with Bloomberg here, but it tends to be simplistic and gives the impression that W+S is the (sole) answer to expanding power generation. As I mention above, as total demand rises and W+S is added, more coal, gas, nuclear or batteries must ALSO be added. It might not be 100% backup, but ~90% backup will always be required. Doubling, or nearly doubling the capital additions doesn’t make sense.

Bloomberg used a recent period to show how well W+S generation is doing here in Texas. But, they cherry-picked that timeframe where wind generation was very good. Texas and other high-plains areas of America have a lot of wind and that’s great. But the wind doesn’t always blow and there ZERO solar EVERY night.

Figure 2: ERCOT W+S Versus Total Electrical Demand

So, in the week of June 22, there was good and consistent wind—way above normal. But we saw above in Figure 1, that the wind doesn’t always blow enough. In the week above, the sum of W+S ranged from 20% of total demand to 48% of total electrical demand. It was an unusually good week.

So, double the capital cost AND double the operating costs. And we haven’t begun to talk about new grid additions and it’s cost.

In fact, there are many factors that “light and breezy” articles don’t tackle. It’s stuff that only engineers know about:

From Gail Tverberg at Our Finite Limits

 AND REMEMBER: USING W+S IS NOT NECESSARY EXCEPT TO “SAVE THE PLANET” FROM “GLOBULL WARMING.”

Solar/wind subsidies are driving reliable power plants out of business, leading to higher costs and lower reliability. (Like I said, reliable power plants will require subsidies—which are not understood yet).

Subsidies and Mandates for Electric Cars and W+S are driving nearly all of this insanity.

We will be better off using only 100% conventional power plant additions (and no W+S) for future demand increases. Why pay 3X the cost for electricity?? I guess we want to be like Germany and Denmark. I DON’T.

Then add $Trillions for grid expansions. Then there’s the cost of electric cars! Jesus, stop!! See Electrical Generation And Grids and Must VASTLY Expand To Accommodate Transportation Loads.