Tuesday, August 22, 2017

A Theology For the 21st Century

When we use words or nouns, they are just symbols that point to something.  When I say God, I am pointing to any/all of the following things: 
  • Ultimate reality (Paul Tillich),
  • Ground of our Being (Paul Tillich)
  • The Beyond (Depth) Within Our Midst (Dietrich Bonhoeffer)
  • That Which We Take Seriously Without Reservation; our ultimate concern
  • That which is really real
  • That which is at the heart of things
  • The ultimate meaning in our lives
I like to think about Moses’ encounter with Yahweh (God) in the Desert in Egypt (Exodus 3:2 to 3:15) where God announces to Moses that he is commanding him to go to the Pharaoh and free the children of Israel. Moses asks God, when I speak to my people and they ask to whom I spoke with and “What is HIS name?” what should I tell them?  God said to Moses, ‘I AM THAT I AM.’ And He said “Thus you shall say to the children of Israel, I AM has sent me to you.” “This is My name forever and this My memorial to all generations.”

I find this a pivotal passage because God is saying that he is “I AM” --meaning that God is “I AM-ness,” that he is “being” or even “being-itself.”  I go on to interpret this to mean that God is the ground of (our) being or the deepest part of (our) being. If God is at the heart of our being, then God knows you better than you know yourself. And if God is Being than we are participating in God and God is in us!! God is in you.

So when I say “God,” I am pointing to this “ground of our being” or the ultimate reality in our existence. God is not an object ‘out there’ or ‘up there,’ but the ground of our being, the ultimate depth in our existence and the ultimate in our reality. God is not A supreme being but supreme being (-itself)!!  So, I don’t need to prove the existence of anything, I just need to clarify that I am pointing to the depths of our being. That exists.

No sophisticated person has an idea of God as an old man “up there,” do they?  If they do, those people will indeed find it difficult to prove their position.

Our Physical Life Is Ephemeral. Materialism Is A Bust

Physically, everyone of us is quite literally a cloud of protons, electrons and neutrons. That is 100% true. (Everything else is too.) And there are vast spaces between these whirring particles, so we’re literally ‘just’ a cloud of particles. We have mass because the particles do have weight.

And we’re hardly the same person that we were a few years ago. Most of our cells are being replaced, so we are literally not who we were 2 years ago. My old skin cells have completely sloughed-off and my skin is entirely new compared to 2 years ago. (It’s true that the brain cells are not replaced, but many are dying and other cells are then adapted)  All of your hair is being constantly replaced with new hair cells. So, physically, we’re really in flux!!  Everything about us physically is extremely transitory. Our physical being is so “shaky.” (And then we die which is really dis-integrative!)

But obviously we are more than clouds of particles. We are sentient beings (so are dogs and other animals).  We have a soul or a “spirit.” We have depth. We build things. We think. We write. We create. We create meaning in our lives in relation to others. We read the teachings of Jesus and the Prophets who taught us what has ultimate meaning and what really matters. We rightfully point to Jesus as fully human and fully God...meaning that he supremely shows what it’s like to be fully “connected” to God (the Word became flesh), the ultimate reality of our lives and world. And this reality looks something like a passion for justice, a love for others—especially for the rejected, the poor, the sick. In the N.T., love is the greek word agape, or a goodwill (a will for the good) for all those we meet (including our enemies!).  In fact, it is my personal understanding that God wills for the good for all of us!! God loves (agape) us! 

Clues to understanding the nature of God, the “ground of our being” is also revealed by reading scripture but also studying great philosophers and thinkers, understanding great science, and reading great works that illuminate the really deep things of our lives. The more you know the better. This is the path to wisdom--not foolishness. Also, really great scientists, when pondering the profound depth of physics, or look out in the expanses of the cosmos, or look through the most powerful microscopes, sometimes perceive something profound and moving at “the heart of things.” Many have a profound or moving experience at those moments (religious experiences?). The same thing might happen to a great writer.

Implications

Wherever there is no God, there are only fools. It’s true because if you don’t know anything of God -- that which is at the heart of things or the really real, then you are going to be really lost and foolish. This is happening all over the place today, including universities where God is intentionally sidelined. Maybe these people have rejected religion because they think religion is based on a God as an old man in the sky “up there” or “out there.” We really need our religious traditions for answers to the question "what really matters?" "Traditional" theology may be unnecessarily alienating people from religion.

There are very few real Atheists. The only true Atheists would be people who kill themselves. Apart from mental problems, killing yourself is the ultimate expression of your belief that life has no meaning or worth. Just getting out of bed in the morning is a statement that life has meaning. It’s worth getting out of bed. In a way, whatever people think has ultimate meaning to them is their God. For instance, extremely greedy people obsessed only with obtaining money have basically elevated money to a God. It animates their life just like God since it might really be their ultimate concern. And they might have a great deal of money, since it means so much to them.

Process Theology

Process theology, started by Alfred North Whitehead (a physicist and contemporary of Einstein), and expounded by John Cobb, Charles Hartshorne and many others, says that God, in addition to being ultimate reality is also the creative force in the universe that is pulling and tugging all things toward the “good.”  He is the force in the universe who works consistently and persistently in calling/pulling all “entities” toward deeper/higher levels of existence. My understanding from Process Theology is that God is working in humans, persuasively and persistently in our hearts and minds to subtlety and consistently pull us toward a greater and profound existence –toward the good. This “tug to the good” can easily be ignored---and many do! 

Friday, August 18, 2017

Economic Stagnation Is Causing Unrest And Leading to Collapse

Insanity, illegality and hysteria is boiling-up everywhere now:
  • the mindless, ignorant and criminal flash-mobs tearing down the Confederate Statues, all supported by mindless, know-nothing 20-somethings in the media who latched on this issue to further denigrate white people in general and especially to create a new fake meme to denigrate Trump.
  • The vast majority of television media are all now completely and obviously Left Wing radicals (idiots) who have given up any pretense of objectivity. They all HATE Trump and ALL are working (illegally) to remove this Constitutionally-elected president. 
  • Despite government being the cause of all the big problems in this country, young people are supporting an octogenarian Marxist dinosaur (Sanders) who would bring even more Socialism (and certain destruction) to this country. 
  • Organized marches after the election with no point; led and followed by people who know nothing, 
  • Washington in a total state of incompetence and total deadlock, Everything is broken, and nothing fixed. Nothing will be fixed according to the Democrats.
  • The Democratic party has decayed to utter uselessness, pointlessness and obstruction and the Republicans are almost as bad,
  • The Left has fomented a McCarthy-esque witch hunt to blame Russia for their candidate's failure and have been trying unsuccessfully to find a "smoking gun" (none exists).
  • Lawlessness erupting from States/Municipalities who (illegally) flout Federal laws with nonsense "sanctuary cities" 
  • California declaring that they will (illegally) seek to follow the ridiculous Paris Climate accords after Trump exited the accord --States are forbidden to follow their own foreign policy by the Constitution, 
Much of individual's frustration with our country is due to the fact that there are not enough jobs with adequate pay, too few opportunities, and inflation is raging while there is too little money. There is literally no hope because no politician even admits to any problem! If they can't admit that there is a problem, there certainly will be no solution.  Janet Yellen keeps saying that everything is rosey while she keeps calling for even more (destructive) inflation! Obama crowed for years that the economy is wonderful. So did Ben Bernanke. Who wouldn't forgive people feeling frustrated? The economy is so bad, who would blame a young person to call for Socialism as an alternative?

Every statistic from the government is a lie. Unemployment is advertised as lowest in decades ('technically' true but basically bullshit).  Obama constantly crowed that the economy is great (it's not), our wars are nearly won (they are all lost), voters are told by presidential candidates that the government will create jobs (nonsense).

This generation, and any future generation, can't afford college now thanks to the still-unchecked Govt loan bubble inflating books and tuition to the moon. This and the next generation can't afford a house since the Federal Reserve has inflated them beyond their reach. The next generation is screwed. No one can afford even a modest medical procedure without being bankrupted, leading to a situation where few can pay their medical bills -- all thanks to the Govt-sponsored medical/pharma cartels and the dominance of Govt spending in medicine.

Our war on poverty has failed, our war on drugs has failed, the country hasn't outright won a war since WWII, the government caused two financial crashes in the past 15 years and another is about to burst. Each time the economy gets even worse. It's all because of the US govt. And no one learns a thing. The entire government colossus should be burnt down. It's time for a new American Revolution, really a massive reset, to do it.

"Government" is causing everything to fail. Everything "government" touches turns to shit. Worse news of all: Government is touching most everything!

Government at all levels has caused a near total cultural collapse of the black population in this country. And they are near revolt. Black poverty is higher than ever thanks in part to government destruction of black families (thanks to the Great Society War on Poverty). "Government" has caused ruin to the lives of Blacks just like they ruined the lives of the Native Americans. Multi-generational welfare rot, ruined public housing, utterly dysfunctional unionized schools, massive ignorance and drug and alcohol addiction is rampant. Now about 10% of all black men are in prison. Even black high school graduation rates are exaggerated because no one is counting the large number of young black kids in jail.

The rest of the population is not doing well either thanks to the de-industrialization of our country by 30+ years of Globalist politicians. There is literally no hope left in large parts of the country. To wit, opium addiction and overdose is suddenly now killing 50,000 people per year. And alarmingly, life expectancy is declining in this country.  The US is NOT the shining city on the hill anymore. There is no hope out there.

Against this backdrop, Donald Trump narrowly won a victory over the most corrupt politician to ever run for President in this country. Hillary Clinton, who only had government jobs, amassed a slush fund of $100,000,000 by taking bribery payments from just about any corrupt government or individual in return for future political favors -- all while "serving" (really failing miserably) as Sec of State (the entire scheme collapsed after her defeat).This was all made clear by Wikileaks and the Fox News network, but still about 50% of the US voters voted for her despite the obvious and outrageous corruption and failures. And there have been unexplained and suspicious murders of anyone coming forward to point out the real story of this slush fund. Truly, we're getting near the darkest days of our history.

Trump won by forcefully speaking, in plain language and with obvious truth, of the ongoing dramatic national decline and he rightfully proposed individual and corporate tax reform, reversal of Obama's damaging Exec Orders, a reversal of the damaging trade deals done by previous administrations, an end to the ridiculous open borders and promised to reverse many of the trends noted above. He even promised to re-establish Glass Steagall to reduce financial risk. He promised to drain the huge Washington swamp and many more things. All are laudable but impossible.

It turns out that the swamp is much bigger than one man. All of the Democrats, the entire Left Wing media establishment, most of the Corporate elites and many of the Republican party are working against any reform at all. The millions of Democrats embedded in the Washington bureaucracy (80% Dems) are also working against Trump. Even Obama is (illegally) operating a political opposition organization in DC to overthrow Trump! Half the nation is working to remove Trump and using violence, profanity, falsehoods, smears, lies, fake news, fake memes, false flag operations and witch hunts to do it. In other words: anything to stop him!

They want him out through any means, legal or illegal. If people helped Trump, he might have made a real difference. He has many of the right ideas. Instead, what the people want is another Globalist politician, just like the ones who have brought ruin to this nation.  

These are yet more reasons why I believe that a social/economic collapse is coming as I warned here and here.  We're probably just weeks or months away from it's onset.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Smartphone Addiction Is Causing (Even More) Mental Health Problems

Data shows that our rampant phone addiction in this country is causing more loneliness, more depression, fewer "real" friends (isolation), less dating, less sleep, less time with friends and less sex-especially in our youngest generation.

In fact, Jean Twenge, a professor of psychology at San Diego State University, says in an article in Atlantic magazine (and an upcoming book), that the group of young people born between 1995 and 2012, who she calls the "iGens," are facing a mental health crisis: "It's not an exaggeration to describe iGen as being on the brink of the worst mental health crisis in decades." And she says it's largely because of smartphones.

And what about all those websites that garner all our young people's attention, like Facebook, Whatsapp, Snapchat and others?  They are feeding into this phone addiction and the resulting social isolation. It's supremely ironic that so-called social media is actually anti-social. I've been of that opinion for some time. And these kids are "communicating" on little chat windows which reduces communication to the most trivial and superficial level possible. They're reducing human communications to silly cartoon "emojis" for goodness sake! Gone are real conversations using full sentences, real social interaction and real logic.  

Worse, Facebook and Twitter and others are subtlety manipulating our young people through algorithms that suppress conservative thought and promote Leftism.  And their time-wasting sites are actually ruining a new generation and feeding into another unhealthy addiction which hurts the nation.


Saturday, July 29, 2017

The False Memes, Phony Causes and Lies of Democrats

These days, the Democrats have become the party of the insane and/or intellectually deficient, the brainwashed, the scumbags and the ne'er-do-wells and liars, and as a party they cling to nothing but false and phony memes and causes. There is so much that Democrats believe that is just not true!  What good are they?

Here's current phony memes and causes that characterize the Democratic party from James Kunstler's blog:
  • Russia "hacked the election of 2016" (no evidence required and they MIGHT have hacked the DNC exposing nasty, tricky schemes and dirt).
  • Russia (Vladimir Putin in particular) is bent on destroying the USA.
  • All immigrants, legal or illegal, have equal status before the law.
  • National borders are inconvenient, cruel, and obsolete.
  • Western Civilization is a malignant force in human history.
  • Islam is “the religion of peace,” no matter how many massacres of “infidels” are carried out in its name.
  • Men are a negative force in society. White men are especially negative.
  • Brownie points given for behaviors under the rubric LBGTQ.
  • All discussion about race problems and conflicts is necessarily racist.
  • The hijab (head covering worn in public by some Muslim women) is a device of liberation for women.
  • There should be a law against using the wrong personal pronoun for people who consider themselves neither men nor women (recently passed by the Canadian parliament).
  • A unifying common culture is unnecessary in national life (anything goes).
  • Colonizing Mars is a great solution to problems on Earth.
I'll add a few more false memes of the Democrats:

Blacks are intellectually equal to whites. It's the biggest and most obvious lie of our day. Every standardized test in the universe says it's not true. Some 50 to 60% of minorities are not graduating high schools. Trump was correct and realistic to suggest more emphasis on trade schools for high school dropouts for those not suitable for college.  

Welfare and income support is helping blacks.  We know how government "helps" people. The $21 Trillion "war on poverty" has succeeded in tearing apart the vast majority of black households and has increased poverty-- not reduced it! 

More taxes are good because they will cure income inequality.  Bernie Sander's approach is a 90% top tax rate top that would hurt everyone. He's really a Marxist idiot.  And look, Cuba solved income inequality but it resulted in most people earning just $30 per month!  Dems ignore the obvious role of increasing debt on income inequality as higher debt hurts the economy but helps the wealthy. They also ignore all the easy money created by the Federal Reserve creates inequality by helping the wealthy by inflating securities (stocks and bonds) -- enriching the already rich but creates inflation which hurts the bottom 90%.

Social Security has a "lock box" and is fully funded until 2024. A nonsense lie that every Democrat tells. There is no "money" in a "lock box" There are only govt bonds. And Govt bonds held by the government is a liability not an asset. These bonds have to be sold to the public to pay out cash benefits...the same mechanism as deficit spending. SS receipts and spending is all done out of the general budget and there is a cash deficit now and forever. Demcrats are liars/propagandists!  

Democrats want you to believe that NRA members are criminals. The reality is that the majority of violent crimes are committed by black Democrats. NRA members are remarkably upstanding.

Obamacare Lies.  Everything you were told to support this law were all lies.

Women are facing discriminatory pay difference, ie., a "war" on women.  Women's choices, usually family-friendly choices, fully explain their "pay gap."

Climate Change is a crisis and cap and trade is needed now. Al Gore has been proven wrong in his alarmist predictions (and will continue to be proved wrong). But he was probably close to correct when he said that it would take $70 TRILLION to fix the problem (if it could be fixed at all--which it can't)!  Unfortunately the world would go broke with that amount of debt. We're already struggling with current debt levels! Cap and Trade would do nothing except collect more taxes to fund govt spend-a-holics. 

Kunstler goes on to say that, while every Democrat is obsessed with their phony causes, they are ignoring the real and existential problems that are threatening our very existence:
  • The energy quandary at the heart of our economic malaise. He means that the cost to extract marginal barrels of oil, our most important energy source, is higher than what working people can afford but lower than required by oil producers and oil exporting countries. And it's not just energy costs that are problematic for the population. Mankind is bumping up against limits of nearly everything (clean water, naturally caught fish, energy, commodities) causing their costs to rise to where consumers can't afford it. The cause of the recession of 2008 was $145 oil.   
  • The enormous debt racked up to run society in the absence of affordable energy inputs.
  • The dangerous interventions and manipulation in markets by unelected officials of the Federal Reserve.
  • The extraordinary dysfunction of manipulated financial markets.
  • The fragility of a banking system based on accounting fraud.
  • The dysfunction and fragility of the American suburban living arrangement.
  • The consequences of a catastrophic breakdown in the economy due to the above.
  • The destruction of planetary ecology, threatening the continuation of the human race, and potentially all life.
What good are Democrats?

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Our Finite Limits

In the past several hundred years, the Earth's population has exploded to 7 billion persons thanks to the use of debt, cheap raw materials, technology and cheap energy. But the most important is energy as it provides the means to mine the materials and leverages the productivity of humans and technology. But such asymptotic population trends are likely not sustainable and subject to collapse.

To support this growth and to feed all of those people, genetically engineered crops were developed to increase crop yields, oil and gas production has extended into expensive offshore areas and marginal oil sand operations, fish and tree farms were built to compensate for declining fish populations and deforestation, desalination plants have been built in some areas to supply enough clean water. Add higher rents, vastly more expensive medical care to the list too. All of these things, and many more, make life more expensive. Meanwhile incomes are stagnate or down.

Fundamentally we have an affordability problem affecting most workers in this country and it is why consumer spending, and therefore the economy as a whole, is stagnating.

Many other factors limit growth. In China, in just 10 years, air quality concerns have reached such critical levels that they can no longer use as much coal, which had fueled their astounding rise. Even clean water is becoming more limited (costly) in China. Their debt levels have also reached levels associated with financial crises in other countries. Now even China is trying to dial-back debt spending and trying not to kill people with smog. Ironically now, we're seeing prices for most commodities dropping in price that are too low for producers. Higher environmental, production, debt and other costs are hurting every country now.

The world, humanity, is reaching the limits of growth -- which may cause adverse debt dynamics (defaults at every level) and a sudden collapse. 

We've reached the finite limits to growth when the marginal cost of commodities that support growth, like oil, rise so high that consumers can't afford it. That happened in 2008 with $145 oil which triggered a recession and financial crisis. The easy stuff has already been exploited. Now, even $60 oil might cause the same adverse result since healthcare, food, rent prices have rapidly escalated in the past 8 years thanks to ongoing "emergency" measures that have continued 10 yrs past the "crisis." The same thing has happened to nearly every other commodity after 2009 with China's huge debt-fueled growth program.

Also we've reached limits of growth when additional debt, on top of our existing debt burden, no longer helps the economy grow. I covered this in my blog post "We're Reaching The End of The Road."

The beginning of the end became somewhat apparent in the 1970s with the abandonment of the Bretton Woods accord (linking the dollar to gold). The resulting drop in the US dollar led to the Arab oil embargo in 1974, energy costs rose from being very cheap to relatively expensive putting a huge drag on Western growth. In order to maintain previous growth and employment levels, increased debt was used by both governments and individuals to offset higher energy costs. This continues to this day. Higher budget and trade deficits caused by expensive oil imports led to much of our wealth transferred to the oil producers (who turned around and bought US treasury bonds to keep the "scheme" going -- known as "petrodollar recycling.")

In recent years, additional trade deficits with Japan, then China has led to further "leakages" of US domestic wealth. Trump is entirely correct that persistent trade deficits have sucked the life (and jobs) out of our country. The result has been that worker's wages in our country have stagnated or declined as jobs are eliminated -- all of which has stagnated the economy. It's why Globalization had to end at some point and Trump is leading that charge.

In addition to increasing debt, consider the easy money created by the Federal Reserve since the 1970s. They have caused increasing financial instability, have inflated rents, housing and nearly every other costs/asset class (the result of no sound money linked to gold). The Fed is responsible for rising income inequality by disproportionally helping the wealthy -- the ones who own stocks, bonds and inflation hedges. Easy money has caused spectacular crashes/financial crises too in recent decades (year 2000 and 2008)-- each time followed by even lower economic growth. All this is hurting the non-elite working class the most-- those that still have a job. Stagnating incomes is causing our increasing economic malaise. This describes our downward spiral that we find ourselves. 

To further "work around" our limits to growth, governments have reduced interest rates to near-zero or below zero. With ultra-low interest rates, retirees can't afford to retire, pension funds fail and insurance companies are hurt. A 3rd stock market and bond market bubble in 17 years has emerged -- really an "everything" bubble. Now rates are rising. Similar to oil prices, too low interest rates hurt some parts of the economy, but higher interest rates hurt a different portion of the economy (the consumer). Like oil prices, it seems we need two different interest rates. One interest rate doesn't work.

Energy production will eventually fall at current prices of $45 to $50 per barrel which are still historically expensive. The price is too low for producers in many nations and oil exporting countries who rely on oil/gas tax revenue to support it's population (like the Middle East countries). Declining production could easily cause an oil price spike that triggers a recession. Then, a recession would in turn trigger a new oil price collapse. We live in a time of potentially dramatic oscillations in energy prices and economic instability.  And any massive spending or economic "stimulus" program would likely be snuffed-out by a huge oil price spike if it were truly effective-- which it won't be. Just ask the Japanese who have seen nothing but economic stagnation after 20 years of "stimulus" and zero interest rates. It's a no-win situation.

Falling energy prices and production does not bode well for future economic growth since GDP is highly correlated with energy consumption. Already economic growth rates are slowing as sovereign, individual and business debt levels continue rising even faster. This can only go on for so long. It can't go on at all if interest rates rise.

The problem is that all the debt taken out to support the progress and growth to date becomes even more onerous, even disastrous when the economy stagnates or when it shrinks, say in a recession. Deflation is especially problematic for debt burdens. (That's why Central Banks all over the world are desperate to create inflation.)  And, as I've mentioned, a recession could be triggered by a spike in oil prices. Or it could be triggered by a financial crisis in commodity-producing countries (any of the emerging market countries), in China or the EU.

Recovery from the next recession will be very difficult as sovereign debt will be rising dramatically at the same time debt defaults increase. Even governments will reach limits of "rescue" of bad debts and/or banks. Furthermore demographic trends in the world have just turned down and will be a drag on the world economy for decades.

About the only scenario that could reverse the current trend toward collapse is steady ultra-cheap energy (say $10 oil) or a breakthrough in abundant and cheap Thorium or fusion power reactors. But government involvement in any such nuclear energy development will guarantee that it won't be cheap. While the US has very cheap natural gas energy at $3, it's the entire world that needs very cheap energy to grow out of our debts. And expensive alternatives like large-scale Solar and Wind are not the answer. We need cheaper, not more expensive energy.  Like I said, it's a no-win situation. We're reaching the end of the road due mainly to the debt. 

Perhaps you can pray for a miracle?

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

White Privilege My Ass

The entire Leftist culture, blacks, Big Corporate (corrupt) media and Hollywood tries to minimize the wildly successful history of the white northern Europeans. Mostly White Europeans literally "invented" the social, technological and political foundations for the prosperity, freedoms and happiness that a billion people enjoy today in Europe, Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand.

There is a 1000 year history of Anglo ideas and philosophies, dating from Pre-Norman times to the Magna Carta and beyond, combined with the work ethic and Judeo-Christian ethic of mostly European immigrants to the US, led to the most successful and vibrant political, economic and social "experiment" ever seen in world history: the USA. Our Constitutional government and our prosperity has been the envy of the world for 230 years now. You could say that it is white people who invented modern civilization. And few nations, except the mostly white nations of the British commonwealth, have successfully emulated the US success.

There's no privilege here -- only hard work and intelligence. It's only E.Asians and N. Europeans who have triple digit median IQs. All the rest don't measure up. Sorry, but it's true.

And white, mostly English-speaking people, were the first people to eliminate slavery that was a scourge of the earth for 5000+ years. By the late 18th century, in Philadelphia, Paris and London, concurrent discussions about eliminating slavery were taking place and soon after, slavery was eliminated in their countries and colonies. In contrast and as an extreme example, slavery was only outlawed in Mauritania in 2007!

On campuses, you hear ignorant, uninformed black and Latino students, most of them unqualified to even be in college but are attending due to the seemingly "free money" of government loans, complain about "white privilege" or even try to reverse-discriminate against whites. I am reading more and more cases where blacks are self-segregating meetings, dorms, lectures and speeches etc to exclude whites. It's because these black students can't compete with whites in reasoning and logic and they know it.

The problem for the Left is that our genius white Founding Fathers had values that are the very definition of Conservative: They founded a culture that champions self-determination, self-sufficiency, personal responsibility, charity that takes care of your own, the primacy of family, community and church, the worship of God, minimal government and minimal regulation.

The Left wants to change all that thinking they have a better way. And they have largely succeeded in upending our conservative heritage. Now we have big government and big corruption that is threatening our financial and social stability. We have excessive regulation, a police and surviellance state and too many idle people living at the expense of others. All this is causing our nation to careen toward complete financial and social collapse mostly due to corruption and unsound policies of a massive and incompetent government, a government that is unable to fix all the problems that IT caused.

White persons are under attack in this country by ignorant minorities and the Leftists who dominate our schools and universities. The ridiculous complaint of "White Privilege" shows how intellectually bereft blacks and the so-called social justice warriors are. There is so much ignorance in our country-- and nearly all of it is found in the ranks of Blacks and Democrats.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Stock Valuations Worse Than They Appear

The US stock market (S&P 500) is trading at a price to earning ratio of 23 based on trailing 12 month "as-reported" earnings.  Historical average is 16.7, so it doesn't it seem so over-valued. See the chart below.  It's only about 30 to 35% above "average."


But it's corporate earnings themselves that are very elevated compared to historical averages-- almost 100% above average.  The problem is that corporate profits reliably reverse or "mean-revert" to the low end of historical averages.


In fact, it is said that corporate profits are the "most mean-reverting" series in all finance. Refer to the chart above. You can see that corporate profits collapsed to the bottom of the historical range (+/- 1 Standard Deviation) in both 2000 and in 2009, so it does mean-revert very significantly! By this measure, you could expect stocks to drop 60% during the next recession.

My point is that that stock market PEs are much more elevated than it seems because the "Earnings" part of the equation is extremely high relative to history -- which reduces reported PE to something that appears less obscene (earnings are in the denominator of P/E). In reality, stocks are very overvalued and in the 95% percentile of historic valuations, when looking at a variety of valuation measures.

That is why GMO is calling for negative stock and bond returns for the next 7 years. The way that these things work out is that stock prices decline by 50 or 60% at some point in that 7 year time period, then recover somewhat. You might have to wait a long time for the full price recovery. Are you ready for that?

GMO's Estimate of Market Returns for Various Assets Q2 2017

Sunday, July 2, 2017

Cuba: A Country Hijacked By a Family Who Imposed Totalitarian Communism

After 58 years of their “glorious revolution” thousands of people every year are still trying to leave Cuba and risking their death in doing so. Many are still dying.

Cuba has virtually the identical situation that all the Communist East European countries had while they were still under the heavy yoke of Soviet communism. The predominant mood for the people there was hopelessness and so many had dreams of escaping. Why else did the Commies have to build the Berlin Wall? To keep the victims inside! And for what? For a absurd ideology that is and always will be a total failure.

Cuba is another country hijacked by a family like North Korea and Azerbaijan. In these situations, only a few at the top and those “connected” to the Castro family have any money. For example, Forbes has estimated that the Castro brothers have $Billions, probably in Swiss bank accounts. This is the norm in Socialist and Communist countries. It’s an evil situation because it can’t or won’t change and if you complain, you go to prison or a mental hospital for your opinions. The elites maintain their status quo using the thugs and guns of Stasi-like “security” agents. They are agents of repression.

Meanwhile most people make about $30 a month and the most qualified doctors recently received a raise and earn about $65 a month. This is what happens when you "solve" the so-called problem of income inequality: it becomes poverty for all.  This widespread poverty remains true even after every country in the world allows unfettered tourism to Cuba.

The people don't benefit because virtually all of the tourist dollars flow right to the top. There has been some slightly improved "freedoms,"ie., some local citizens can provide tourists alternative accommodations to the government-owned (ie., Castro family owned) resorts. But I wouldn’t be surprised if those people are shaken-down by the regime thugs — especially if they are very successful! If anyone is too successful, their business will be seized and given to someone else since you don’t have any property or any other rights or protections. This is an evil place.

This is why I hold Obama in such contempt for giving Castro Inc a lifeline.  Every Leftist leader will make everyone worse off. This includes Jeremy Corbin, Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama and many others.

There was an article the other day saying that a Cuban man interrupted the most recent May Day parade by running along the parade route waving an American flag. He was beaten badly by all the plain clothes police for such an affront.

Later I read that he was put in a mental hospital because he kept talking about God and he professed his belief in Jesus. This happened millions of times in the USSR too. If you dared say that you didn’t like Communism, you were considered crazy not to love their wonderful system. But, in the plainest truth,  it was their “system” that was crazy.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Americans Have Forgotten What Economic Freedom Looks Like

Buses in Thailand cities come every 2 or 3 minutes or you can get a taxi for $1 or $2 for local rides— Because they are so frequent, convenient and cheap, everyone uses the buses and taxis.

In Thailand, transportation is cheap because there are many bus companies and individuals with vans to offer transportation. It’s all open to intense competition as it's so unregulated. The result: you only have to wait 3 minutes for a bus in Thailand. And a bus ride is only 20 cents!  They are also cheap because buses, taxis and many automobiles use cheap CNG (compressed natural gas) in the big cities.

In so-called "advanced" societies, like American cities, whose mass transit bus services are city-run monopolies, you have to wait 45 min or more for any bus (in my town of Houston for instance). So, few people use them except the poor. It takes forever to get anywhere. And bus route coverage here is very, very limited. Then, we continue to build and widen freeway to handle all of the personal automobiles -- all because the bus system stinks.

There are far too FEW buses. It’s because local (or any) governments don't make capital investments well. And government-run buses are expensive. The fare alone is $2 or $3 for crappy service and taxpayers are likely FURTHER subsidizing pensions for overpaid unionized bus drivers! It's corruption. Oh, and taxi medallions are a government monopoly as well -- which increases the fares!

Meanwhile, we have 19 lanes on a major freeway (I-10) thru Houston and IT’S NOT ENOUGH! Imagine the $BILLIONS that 19 lanes cost??? No one can figure out the problem because we as a people have forgotten the power of economic freedom.  We can't take even advantage of cheap CNG that we have in this country. And we can't seem to understand the problem of government and government monopolies. They don't do ANYTHING well.

We have a lot to learn from Thai people. It’s not just their ability to adapt quickly to alternative transportation fuels, but Thai people know MUCH more about economic freedom than Americans or Europeans. There are micro-business stalls lining most streets. Not many Thai people are waiting for corporations to give them jobs; they just go set up a table to sell noodle soup, or trinkets, or tools, or clothes to the passerbys. They know they are responsible for themselves —like America used to be. There's no government programs to sign-up for.

Great things result from real economic freedom and high levels of competition. Most Americans now have no recollection now of what economic freedom looks like! We’ve been led to believe that various governments are the answer to too many things. But governments ARE often the problem. Big government are ALWAYS a problem. Americans ARE also a big part of the problem too. We’ve lost our way!

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Orwell's 1984 Fully In Effect in Europe

"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act."
George Orwell

In my blog post Leftists Are Fascists and Nazis, I indicated that Europe's political elite are enforcing a totalitarianism not seen since Communist East Germany and the USSR. They are aggressively prosecuting any person, including Presidential candidates, that dare speak the truth. It's all about radical political correctness by Leftist leaders and their captive mass media to hide the obvious and massive problems that large-scale, non-selective immigration of mostly Muslim men is causing. The ruling elites have CAUSED this, and they refuse to acknowledge or change it! They refuse to see that they are dead wrong. And no one is allowed to speak the obvious truth or you'll be imprisoned. Welcome to Orwellian Europe.

Except for the willfully-blind Leftists and their complicit and corrupt media, it's easy for everyone else to now see why the entire Middle East is in a cultural collapse. It's the Muslims, stupid! Now, these same people are bringing collapse to Europe too. And a big part of that collapse is where EU authorities attack and imprison good people who simply express plain and obvious truths.

From Free Market Shooter:
After countless terror attacks in the name of Islam on European soil, it seems authorities in the EU are more angry over citizen’s freedom of speech and expression…
On Tuesday, Sussex police arrested 50 year-old Nigel Pelham; charged with eight counts of “publishing… written material intending to sir up religious hatred against Muslims”, it’s laughable to consider what he’s being punished for – it’s surreal! The “offensive” posts spanned between February 24 and November 16, 2015.
On that same day, German police raided the homes of 36 people accused of hateful postings over social media. Yes, the biggest problem facing the EU is hate but not the kind they’re punishing. Thus, Mr. Pelham and the 36 who had their homes raided had their fundamental human rights violated…
Totalitarianism combined with severe ongoing economic stagnation, grotesque and failing Central Bank and Government interventions, crushing debt, a failing currency experiment, failing banks, and the high risk of a financial crisis all spell inevitable crisis and collapse.  When everything is wrong, how can that be sustainable? It isn't. 

Thank God that our Founding Fathers of the USA enshrined freedom of speech and other liberties in our Bill of Rights.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Government Fake Data: 93% of Jobs Created Since 2008 Due to Fictitious Birth/Death Adjustment

In my 2014 blog "3.3 Million Jobs Created Thru 'Faulty' Birth/Death Adjustment," I estimated that some 42% of all job gains reported since 2009 were created by the now-fictitious business birth/death adjustment. It may be far worse than that. Morningside Hill has reported that some 93% of all job creation since 2008 are probably fake. 

The Birth/Death adjustment was designed to capture the jobs at new, small firms who are missed in employment surveys. It's important because small start-up firms are the major job creators in the economy. Historically, in a healthy economy, start-up firm's job creation typically exceeds small firm failures by a wide margin. But, this situation hasn't been true since the 2007 crisis. In fact business deaths have exceeded new business births since 2008. This means that the Birth/Death adjustment since 2008 should be nearly zero or negative -- not hugely positive.

Fake Job Creation Compliments of the US Govt-Especially after 2008
But evidence shows that more businesses are dying than being created which means there is no basis for a positive Birth/Death adjustment since 2008. From Morningside Hill:

After the 2007 Crisis More Businesses Are Dying Than Born (The Trend Continued After 2011)
Business "Births" Remained Lower After 2009 To The Present
So, we're left with the situation where fully 93% of all job creation sinced since 2008 and 40% of the jobs in 2016 alone were added through the business birth and death model – a model which is not supported by the data.  Here are the figures from Morningside Hill:

So where are all the reported jobs coming from?  We're told that the number of jobs has recovered and finally exceeded the number of employed in 2007.

Well, full-time jobs are being replaced by multiple part-time positions, and are double and triple counted in the Establishment Survey, so the numbers of jobs sound impressive, but the quality of jobs has declined.

The US has added a net 6.7 million jobs over the past 9 years and most were part-time jobs, while the birth and death model added 6.3 million of these jobs, this means that the actual number of full-time jobs has declined significantly. This explains why wages are mostly declining. It's also why inflation is not heating-up in general. The employment situation is still not good -- despite what the government tells you.

The sad thing is that all of the highly-paid and PhD educated economists at the Federal Reserve must believe the phony government numbers. Janet Yellen insists that the economy is nearly overheating and that the Fed must increase interest rates to tame inflation.

But it's just a case of errors on top of errors. They (the Fed) really don't know what they're doing.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Hooray For White People!

I'm tired of hearing from minorities complaining about "White Privilege" or otherwise denigrating White people as if white people are the big problem in our country. Nearly all of these complainers are minority Democrats; which has become the anti-white party in a country of 70% white people.

The simple truth is that about 95% of all the world's technological, scientific, medical, engineering and philosophical advancements and inventions were conceived and developed by white people. Not only that, but white people, mostly English-speaking people, invented political, personal and economic freedom, religious freedom, rule of law, guaranteed rights and personal liberty that are now uniquely enshrined in our law.

There is a 1000 year history of Anglo ideas and philosophies, dating from Pre-Norman times to the Magna Carta and beyond, that ultimately culminated in the exceptional US Constitution. These outstanding ideas, combined with the work ethic and Judeo-Christian ethic of mostly European immigrants to the US, led to the most successful and vibrant political, economic and social "experiment" ever seen in world history: the USA. Our Constitutional government and our prosperity has been the envy of the world for 230 years now. You could say that it is white people who invented modern civilization. And few nations, except the mostly white nations of the British commonwealth, have successfully emulated the US success.

Yes, history is a brutal, unfair and bloody place for all of mankind, but it was white, mostly English-speaking people, that were the first cultures to eliminate slavery that was a scourge of the earth for 5000+ years. By the late 18th century, in Philadelphia, Paris and London, concurrent discussions about eliminating slavery were taking place and soon after, slavery was eliminated in their countries and colonies.  In contrast and as an extreme example, slavery was only outlawed in Mauritania in 2007!

Here's just some of the zillions of other accomplishments of white people (from Burning Platform):
Look around you. Can you find anything with a moving part that was not invented by whites? Anything electronic? Cars, telephones, computers, aircraft, antibiotics, on and on–all sprang from the minds of white people. You are not supposed to say such things, and could be run out of a university for it–but ask yourself, if you have the courage: Is it true? [Of course it's true.]

The Hubble Space Telescope: twenty-five hundred years of phenomenally complex math, physics, electronics, optics, and chemistry went into the Hubble. It is entirely a white man’s show. Nobody else has come close. Your professors will not want you to think this. They will not want you to think. But you have a mind. Use it.

Look around your university. Who do you see taking the hard subjects–math, chemistry, physics, engineering, philosophy, computer science? Whites and Asians…right? Are they the kind of people who complain constantly about White Privilege? You may notice a pattern here: Those who can, do. The rest bitch and moan.
Take the Hadron Collider, a gigantic particle accelerator at CERN, in Switzerland, a massive instrument for research in subatomic physics. It is one of the greatest and most challenging projects of humanity. The Japanese could do this if they wanted to badly enough and soon, perhaps, the Chinese. They didn’t. The technology is a white man’s show, starting from Athens 2500 years ago. Are you sure you should be ashamed of this?
Here's just a few other mostly-white accomplishments: Euclidean geometry. Parabolic geometry. Hyperbolic geometry. Projective geometry. Differential geometry. Calculus: Limits, continuity, differentiation, differential equations, integration. Physical chemistry. Organic chemistry. Biochemistry. Classical mechanics. The indeterminacy principle. The wave equation. The Parthenon. The Anabasis. Air conditioning. Number theory. Romanesque architecture. Gothic architecture. Information theory. Entropy. Enthalpy. Every symphony ever written. Pierre Auguste Renoir. The twelve-tone scale. The mathematics behind it, twelfth root of two and all that. S-P hybrid bonding orbitals. The Bohr-Sommerfeld atom. The purine-pyrimidine structure of the DNA ladder. Single-sideband radio. All other radio. Dentistry. The internal-combustion engine. Turbojets. Turbofans. Doppler beam-sharpening. Penicillin. Airplanes. Surgery. The mammogram. The Pill. The condom. Polio vaccine. The integrated circuit. The computer. Football. Computational fluid dynamics. Tensors. The Constitution. Euripides, Sophocles, Aristophanes, Aeschylus, Homer, Hesiod. Glass. Rubber. Nylon. Skyscrapers. The piano. The harpsichord. Elvis. Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors. (OK, that’s nerve gas, and maybe we didn’t really need it.) Silicone. The automobile. Really weird stuff, like clathrates, Buckyballs, and rotaxanes. The Bible. Bug spray. Diffie-Hellman, public-key cryptography, and RSA. Et cetera again and again.
If you talk about these accomplishments on college campuses, in front of black kids, you will be labeled "white supremacist!" But this is just sour grapes. US blacks should also be more realistic about their abilities and they'd be more happy. Their 'sour grapes' attitude brings unhappiness. And miserable they are.

Conversely, most Latinos and Asians correctly respect white people and their unmatched accomplishments. They accept that they are not as accomplished as the Northern Europeans and their descendants. Instead, they work hard to emulate this success. Here's the thing; acceptance of yourself realistically in the "pecking order" of abilities and culture leads to personal happiness. Latinos and Asians are happy people as they leap-frog blacks to prosperity. 

Rather than be angry, black folks should be more grateful too. Black people in modern America are able to enjoy our peace and prosperity. Unlike pre-1960 America, they can freely live in white and/or Latino neighborhoods and enjoy the peaceful, orderly, prosperous communities that whites and Latinos have created. Where they are forced by poverty or choice to live in majority black neighborhoods, the conditions are dangerous, impoverished, unhealthy and unhappy. Keep in mind, it could be worse, they could be living in the still deplorable conditions of Africa!  Count your blessings, people.

On campuses, you hear ignorant, uninformed black and Latino students, most of them unqualified to even be in college, complain about "white privilege" or even try to reverse-discriminate against whites. I am reading more and more cases where blacks are self-segregating meetings, dorms, lectures and speeches etc to exclude whites. It's because these black students can't compete with whites in reasoning and logic and they know it.

I'm still thinking about the all-black cast of the Broadway play "Hamilton" where whites were told not to apply to casting calls! Then those same people, all Black, who only read aloud what others have written and therefore only "appear" to be learned and intelligent, lectured the newly-elected VP, Mike Pence, a man who is actually leading the nation. Sorry, but Blacks for the most part are arrogant, ignorant and know nothing.

The entire Leftist culture, blacks, Big Corporate (corrupt) media and Hollywood tries to minimize the wildly successful history of the white northern Europeans who "invented" the social, technological and political foundations for the prosperity, freedom and happiness that a billion people enjoy today in Europe, Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand. The problem for the Left is that our genius white Founding Fathers had values that are the very definition of Conservative: They founded a culture that champions self-determination, self-sufficiency, personal responsibility, charity that takes care of your own, the primacy of family, community and church, the worship of God, minimal government and minimal regulation. The Left wants to change all that thinking they have a better way. And they have largely succeeded in upending our conservative heritage. Now we have big government and big corruption that is threatening our financial and social stability, We have excessive regulation and too many idle people living at the expense of others causing our nation to careen toward complete financial and social collapse mostly due to corruption and unsound policies of a massive and incompetent government, a government that is unable to fix all the problems that IT caused.

White persons are under attack in this country by ignorant minorities and the Leftists who dominate our schools and universities. The ridiculous complaint of "White Privilege" shows how intellectually bereft blacks and the so-called social justice warriors are. There is so much ignorance in our country-- and it's mostly found in the ranks of Blacks and Democrats.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

More Analyses Confirm Solar & Wind Power Is More Of a Problem Than Solution

I just posted an article entitled Large Scale Solar & Wind Power Not The Solution: Too Many Problems and Costs. There I make the argument that these unreliable and low-quality power sources are too expensive to be adopted on a wide scale. Where it is adopted on a large scale, in Europe, electricity prices are three times higher in order to provide the widespread subsidies for both consumers and conventional utilities. These alternative power supplies are not economic in a free market, especially when all the costs are included.

More evidence of how uneconomic these forms of power are is found in an article from Mises Institute called "More Solar Jobs Is a Curse, Not a Blessing" and an article from Zero Hedge.  The Mises article talks about the large employment in these alternative energy industries. More jobs are good right?? Not really. Instead, the large number of jobs shows how inefficient, unproductive and wasteful this industry relative to the small quantity of power that they produce.


From ZeroHedge,
Looking at electricity generated per worker, Coal generated an incredible 7,745 megawatt-hours of electricity per worker; natural gas 3,812 MWH per worker; wind a measly 836 MWH for every employee; and solar an abysmal 98 MWH per worker.
In other words, producing the same amount of electricity requires one coal worker, two natural gas workers — 12 wind industry employees or 79 solar workers.
In truth, about the only thing solar and wind companies do well is collect billions of dollars in subsidies from taxpayers and billions of dollars in much higher electricity rates from consumers. 
And when you look at the overall picture, solar and wind power generation is even worse than this.

Wind and solar's inefficiency extends to the cost to manufacture and install wind and solar power generating equipment. More carbon may be emitted in the manufacturing, installation and maintenance of this equipment than they save!  It takes a lot of land, steel, concrete, transmission lines to build these facilities all requiring fossil fuels to produce and install.

Wind and solar are so unreliable that they require nearly 100% backup by convention fossil fuel power plants which doubles the capital investment (going forward). By this measure alone, wind and solar at least doubles their installed cost. No "experts" will tell you about this. The cost of grid modifications are also never included in any solar or wind energy analysis either. The only way these facilities are built is through various subsidies from various governments. And once subsidies are provided to solar and wind producers, subsidies are also required by the conventional power producers.  Wind and Solar power isn't economic and they probably fail to reduce carbon emissions as well.

Wind and solar power are not our long-term solution for large-scale power. As I stated in my post, the world needs more inexpensive energy not more expensive energy. And these alternative supplies aren't so carbon-free either. Only ideologically blinded people like Obama and Merkel are unable to see these facts. Welcome to more evidence of Western Civilization's death by intellectual idiots.

Monday, June 5, 2017

The Movie "Hidden Figures" is Fake History

We live in a time where is everything for public consumption is increasingly fake and propagandized. Much of it comes from the MSM, a huge amount from Washington DC, and a bunch from Hollywood. These are places where professional liars and propagandists are in charge.

Hollywood's latest propaganda is the movie "Hidden Figures" which tries to portray a story that a handful of black ladies were the key to the Apollo moon shot and that they had to battle racism to accomplish their feat.

The problem is that it's mostly not true. Yes, it's true that Katherine Johnson did calculations for NASA and she technically was black. And that is a good thing and I'm happy for her. But Katherine herself said that she was only part of large teams to do hand calculations in a time of limited computer capability. And there were large teams to check the other teams. That the movie tries to portray that Katherine was a key figure in the program is extremely misleading.

And the racism that these heroines supposedly had to battle was largely fabricated. How do I know?  Because no one would even think that Katherine Johnson was black at all. See the photo below. The "rascist white" aspect was mostly made-up for the movie to fit the "narrative" in order to vilify white people in general. White people continue to be under attack in our cultural propaganda.

A Young Katherine Johnson. Does This Nice Lady Look Black?
The real heroes of the moon launch were all white folks. How about Wernher Von Braun who invented the rockets?

Or take Dr. Jack Crenshaw. He was a computer genius and literally invented the trajectory and equations that were used by NASA to circle the lunar vessel around the moon and back.  In other words, Dr. Crenshaw invented the Apollo mission! Without Dr. Crenshaw, there wouldn't have been a moon mission or any need for human "calculation teams" glorified in the movie. See an interview with the real hero here.  Why aren't we making a movie about him?

A bit more about Jack Crenshaw from "The Space Pioneer That No One Every Heard Of:
"Dr. Jack Crenshaw was one of the pioneers in designing the figure-8 trajectory which became known as the free-return trajectory. The early Moon missions set off for our closest celestial neighbor in the free-return trajectory which, if uncorrected, would loop them around the Moon and return them straight to Earth.
In order to orbit the Moon and land on it, the Apollo spacecraft’s Service Propulsion System (SPS) engine had to fire in order to slow the vehicle down and settle into lunar orbit. Delicate calculations were needed in order to ensure the orbit would not bring the craft into a collision with the lunar mountains."
But no one wants to portray one of the real heroes of the Apollo moon mission -- because he was white. Instead, his monumental contribution is being minimized and buried in history rather than memorialized as it should be.  Worse, Hollywood misleads you by claiming 3 black ladies were the real brains in the story! This is because the liars in charge have to make up stories to glorify any black "accomplishments" no matter how small, at the expense of white accomplishments. Welcome to "Fake History"-- compliments of Hollywood propaganda machine.

The simple truth is that more than 95% of all the major technical, scientific, medical, engineering and all other important intellectual advancements in all fields were accomplished and exploited by white people. 

I've complained about this type of media propaganda in More "Black" Shoved Down Your Throat and Leftist Media Shove "Black" Propaganda Down Your Throat."

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Large Scale Solar & Wind Power Not The Solution: Too Many Problems and Costs

Many people think that the future of large scale energy production lies in "renewables" like wind and solar PV power. This is not true. There are a number of insuperable problems with both of them, especially when it's share of electricity production reaches about 10 to 15%. At this level of intermittent production, the cost of grid modifications adds even more cost to these already costly and low quality energy sources. In our stagnating world economy, every country needs cheaper -- not more expensive energy.

Even with generous government subsidies and mandates, penetration of wind and solar power is still very small with about 4% of world's electricity energy mostly due to Solar PV "religion" in Germany and the rest of Europe. It's only about 1% of the total in the US.


The cost of solar & wind power is a large burden to consumers and taxpayers where there it has been adopted on a large scale, such as in Europe. The average cost of electricity in the US is about $0.10 per KW-h but Germany and Denmark burden it's people and industry with punitive costs of $0.33 per KW-h. It's mostly due to subsidies for the renewables since these expensive forms of power are not economic. Even then, all of the costs are probably NOT included in the unit costs. The reality is likely worse. For example, Germany has installed additional power cables to/from Sweden and France to help cope with the intermittent nature of this alternative power. Subsidizing conventional power companies, who remain partly on standby when there is abundant sun and wind, adds to the burden. Taxpayers are picking up this additional tab.

Countries shown above in "red" are those experiencing severe debt problems. Solar and wind subsidies worsen these problems
All of the intermittent power sources such as wind and solar PV require basically a 100% backup because there is no solar power at nights or during much of the winter (when power demand is highest). Wind power is very intermittent (unreliable) as well. So, going forward, widespread (>10% of total power generation) adoption of such intermittent power basically doubles the capital costs.

How can paying twice the capital cost ever make sense? Yes, existing power plants are already built, so people take comfort in ignoring the conventional utility power companies. But as subsidies rise for homeowner installations, the power utilities find their revenues and profits are down, so THEY begin to require subsidies as well.  This means that subsidies then are required for everyone!  All this to support these low quality and expensive alternatives! How can this ever work?

Many countries, including many in Europe are already having debt problems. Solar and wind subsidies ADD to their problems! It's really insane.

The Figure below shows some of the more obvious problems with Solar and Wind that ultimately limit it's adoption on a wide scale. Gail Tverberg writes frequently about these issues in her blog called Our Finite World.
Numerous Problems and Costs Associated with Low Quality Intermittent Power Generation
The cost of the solar panels (alone) have become much cheaper recently, so if you just do simple math as a homeowner for instance, the panel cost (alone) seems to make economic sense. But add the cost of installation, which doubles the price, starts to diminish the attractiveness. If one integrates the solar power to feed back to the utility grid, that adds more cost. If you try to power large power-intensive appliances such as electric ranges, central air conditioning and/or electric clothes dryers, then the number of panels and costs go up to astronomic levels. Adding batteries and inverters to power your home at night adds even more costs especially if you have significant loads. Oh, and forget powering central air conditioners on batteries --- it ain't going to happen.

On a regional or national level, the example of Germany shows the problems with widespread solar PV power adoption. For 4 months of the year during winter (when their power demand is highest), there is little sun since they are at 50 deg N Latitude with plenty of clouds, so they are reliant on conventional power generation (or purchased power from Sweden or France). In the summer, when the sun comes out, the surge of solar power generation requires that nearly all of traditional power generation to shut down and/or requires them to sell power to neighboring countries. If you don't have neighbors to sell to, then that creates a huge problem due to the time required to start and stop large conventional production. And the electric power grid must be modified to accommodate these variable power flows-- which costs taxpayers money. Then, idling conventional plants in summer cause the electric utilities to lose money where they aren't able to pay investors their dividends, so Germany has to provide assistance to the utilities!

So in Germany, the solar installations don't make economic sense because of their costs. But Germany is in the grip of a climate change/solar energy fantasy which borders on a false religion since solar has never made sense there. Making public policy based on fantasy is not likely to work.

Wind has similar problems too. There are higher maintenance costs for these generators. You will often see many idle windmills in wind farms. They aren't very durable and require frequent repair.

Trying to substitute expensive energy for cheap energy is like trying to make water run uphill. It is virtually impossible to make such a system work. It makes everyone from governments to businesses to citizens poorer in the process.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

Epicenters of Ignorance, Bad Ideas and Destruction

Look to African/US Blacks, Muslims and the political Left for the three major groups where ignorance and very bad ideas cause widespread destruction wherever they are found.

It's easy see the destruction of the first two groups with even a cursory look at the Middle East and all of Africa. Nearly all Africans and Middle Easterners are suffering from poverty, stagnation, crime, murder, war, strife, decay, disorder, tyranny, misery and/or starvation. Much of the Middle East and Africa is poorly developed -- often Medieval or even Prehistoric. Middle East Muslim majority countries are devolving dramatically rather than evolving and Africans have made little progress in hundreds of years. Of those Middle Eastern countries not in collapse, low oil prices will eventually collapse the remaining countries that previously enjoyed high oil prices. This means that I am predicting TOTAL COLLAPSE of all of the Mideast and N. African Arab/Muslim cultures.

US blacks are also devolving into chaos and even worse ignorance. Indeed the entire West is intellectually devolving. US black populations have low IQs (80s), but it is Africans, especially sub-Saharan's that have the lowest median IQs in the world--ranging from 60s to 80s. In every population, there are a bunch of "nice" people, but "nice" people can be full of very bad ideas especially in the areas of politics and religion. Low IQ populations know nearly nothing, have little logic, suffer from poor impulse control and have average mental ages of adolescents. This can actually be charming except when it results in chaos, crime and war zones as we often see from Africa to Chicago. I have written about the high correlation of poverty and misery with populations having low median IQs.  Also see my blog examining the lower IQs of US blacks and it's implications.

The Arab/Muslim Crash

Most of Arab/Muslim regions in the Middle East and North Africa are now in a cultural and political collapse. This collapse was made plainly evident in the so-called "Arab Spring" uprisings and wars in recent years caused by major wars in the region started by outside powers, their failed Muslim culture, low intelligence, poor education, chronically failed economies and tyrannical leaders.

This collapse has set-off the greatest refugee crises in recent memory. The mass migration of mostly young (and poorly-educated and mostly ignorant) Mid-Eastern and African men into Europe is already causing social disruption and crime. It's an entirely predictable clash of civilizations. Deluded Leftist EU leaders are un-fazed and maintain an obviously destructive open-border policy. Leftists are blinded by their ignorant and incorrect ideas (blinded by evil and political correctness). It appears that Leftist governments are somehow aligned with Muslims in some kind of unholy alliance of ruin!

Muslims are full of terrible and ignorant ideas that bring nothing but misery and death to themselves and those around them. Muslims are historically responsible for 10s of millions of deaths, if not 100s of millions, due to their horrible but widespread "Jihad"ideology. They are truly the Medieval Death Cult and STILL ARE. For example, since just 2001, there have been about 250,000 murders and another estimated 250,000 wounded from Jihadi attacks alone (a total which excludes war-related deaths). That equates to ~2 million deaths per century--NOT including wars! So, you can imagine how annoying it is to hear ignoramus Obama saying that 99.9% of Muslims are peace-loving. It's not true.

Muslim's ill-treatment of women is well-known, but their belief in mutilating the genitals of young baby girls is less known. In this practice, they are trying to literally eliminate any possibility of women enjoying sex. These are sick people. Another integral part of their ideology is their belief in "conquering" and dominating the world creating an Islamic Caliphate (of misery). I lived in Jakarta and saw an entire football stadium full of "mainstream" Indonesians celebrating this belief. Islam is a supremacist (and bigoted) ideology.

Hatred of Jews and even Christians is part of their religion and has been since it's inception since it's supported by their Qu'ran. Remember that the Mufti of Jerusalem sat at the right hand of Hitler in WWII.  And where there is Jew-hatred there is gay-hatred. ISIS has been throwing alleged gay people to their deaths off of tall buildings ignoring any kind of due process or anything else that might be called civilized. You would be correct in saying that Muslims REMAIN the Nazis of our day. Hell, many Muslims think dogs are evil! While dogs remain perfect, it is many (8 to 30%) Muslims who are evil. The rest are sheep-like, remain silent and complicit by default. Passive sheep-like behavior is more pronounced in low median IQ populations.

Their widespread emphasis of religious studies in lieu of math, science or any technology just continues widespread backward and massively outdated thinking that results in poor-performing economies. The tyranny in their political leadership also results from weak minds and passive sheep-like behavior. Their tyrannical leaders mirror the authoritarianism in Islam itself. And if you try to leave Islam, they are obliged to kill you! Talk about bad ideas!

The Destruction of Blacks--From Africa to the Americas

The rest of Africa is in total collapse too. It's ruled by a bunch of fools, tyrants, homophobes and evil people. You could see it when Obama invited a bunch of African "leaders" to the White House. It was truly a monster's ball. US black culture is also in collapse.

There is little evidence that any majority black community or nation on earth can adequately govern themselves. This is as true in Baltimore and Detroit as it is from Africa to Brazil. Black populations only tear down and rarely "build up." They literally destroy everything. Black majorities elsewhere in the world are failing and collapsing -- and none ascending. Every black majority city in the Americas is highly dangerous due to murders, crime, chaos and have poor health, lower life expectancy and widespread poverty. This is true even after fairly massive transfer payments for decades from the government to help them! The war on poverty has failed because black culture has failed; in part, because of government intervention.

Ignorant US Blacks believe that White people are actively holding them back. It used to be true but what's holding them back now is what every standardized test in the world says: they are at the bottom of the scale of cognitive ability (low median IQ).  And nothing will change this quickly. They blast white people, but they should be thanking white people for a mostly orderly society that Whites (Europeans) created. They COULD be living in Africa instead!

Brazil has many of the most dangerous and murderous cities in the world and a national murder tally of 50,000 murders in a recent year. It's mostly black-on-black killing just like in America. While the US has 15,000 murders per year, Brazil has 3 times the murder rate of the US and predictably they also have 3 times the blacks than the  US (~50% vs 13% in the US). The Brazil murder problem is black in color --- just as it is in America. Low media IQ means that these people have a mental age of 14 to 16 years old, have poor impulse control and little logic -- leading to murderous results.

South Africa can barely keep the electricity online these days now that blacks are in charge. Their current idiot President Zuma has recently vowed to seize White S. African's land and businesses and re-distribute them to black persons. This same idiocy was tried by Zimbabwe's President Mugabe about 30 years ago. Land and farms held by Whites were seized in Zimbabwe and given to blacks who didn't know how to farm or do anything else. Whites fled of course. It led to starvation, stagnation and ultimately hyperinflation there (also known as collapse). Now Zuma wants that for his country! Radical niggers in South Africa have also recently vowed to wipe out White people there! There is literally no hope.

The Destruction of The Left

Hard-Left (Communist) governments have caused untold suffering in modern history due the failures of their Leftist ideologies.The failure rate is 100%. The rise, spread and subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union and it's empire caused untold suffering, for example. The ongoing stagnation in Argentina is another example. Cuba is a great example. The result is the same every time.

Another hybrid communist nation, Venezuela and their kleptocratic Leftist leaders Chavez and Maduro who are the darlings of the US Black "leaders," is collapsing as we speak with hyperinflation, stagnation, crisis and starvation. Ignorant voters, who repeatedly voted for "free stuff" and "free money" now find that the money is worthless and there is nothing to buy even if they had money. This is always the result of hard-Left governments: stagnation, inflation, crisis, collapse.  Free money lasts only so long.

And the Left never learns or changes and this is what makes them evil. The Pope, as an example, remains an avowed Socialist in outlook even after the damage and destruction caused by Socialism in his own country of Argentina. Fidel and Raul never changed. Why would they? In communism and socialism, only the elites and those "connected" at the top benefit. The "people" just suffer, then suffer even more.

And remember, Socialism is just Communism-lite.  Big government and a predominance of central planning is Socialism. Europe and China are in this category. We have that even it in the USA to a large degree. Socialism results in the same misery as hard-Left Communism, it just takes longer to get to the point of collapse. But collapse it does.

Leftism is now allied with Blacks and Muslims in the US and Europe. Leftist media promotes pro-black propaganda in the US and shields the public from the true horrific decline of black "culture" in this country. US Media news never identifies the racial identity of criminals, because it's mostly black. They do the same thing in Europe -- they cover-up the criminal activities of the new Muslim migrants to manipulate public opinion. Sweden, suffering after 20 years of importing Muslim Africans and Arabs, now refuses to even collect data on crime activities and arrests. They wouldn't want anyone to get the correct information which might cause outrage and expose government propaganda!

The US Democratic Party is now hard-Left in their politics and are apologists for US blacks and Muslims to form a triumvirate of bad ideas and destruction. Together they may be a majority in this country or might be soon. Can the fall of the US be far away? 

The common denominator here is that all of these groups have weak minds. They can't or refuse to learn the correct lessons of current events or history. They won't or can't change -- even in light of disasters that THEY create. The Left and Islam, in this sense, are evil. Black populations have very low median IQs which means they literally can't learn anything. Also, statistically there are very few highly intelligent persons in these population that could provide competent leadership or start large-scale businesses that would create prosperity or favorable change.