Wednesday, October 18, 2017

We're Reaching the End of the Road

I'm afraid that we're reaching the end of a very long road.

Unsound money ("fiat" money not backed by gold) has led, in recent decades, to huge and unsustainable global imbalances in trade and debt. But because trade deficits REDUCE our nation's GDP, persistent trade deficits in our country have led to rising debt at every level as we try to maintain the "appearance" of a rising standard of living. This is partly why the US ran $10 Trillion in government deficits in the past 10 years alone. Can you imagine what our economy would have looked like without all that money? It would have been outright Depression. (I'm not even going to mention the $4T bank reserve creation by the Federal Reserve). All of that debt is masking depression. Even so, the number of full-time jobs is barely above 2007 levels (only +3M) and "good jobs" or good-paying "breadwinner jobs" are still lower than the last peak.

Even with our still rising debt (deficit spending) in the last year, China has seen a fall in exports. World trade is flatlining or declining. Why? Because the US and Western consumers can't afford the imports! Trump is right about trade. Our economy is hollowed-out by the loss of manufacturing jobs and it has killed jobs and hurt our people. Now the US consumer is tapped-out. Furthermore, demographic trends have turned negative in most of the West and China just like Harry Dent predicted and has slowed the economy.

The persistent budget and trade imbalances over the past several decades could never have happened with "sound" money, as the deficit nation would have seen a loss of gold (money) that would have slowed the economy and reduced imports to a balance with exports. And debt creation would have been severely limited since new money would have to be backed by gold-- and gold is limited. Exchange rates would have been very stable too. That is the beauty of the gold standard. The gold standard will eventually make a return out of the ashes of the next financial/economic crisis.

Other reasons why we're reaching (or reached?) the end of the road financially and economically:

1) Rising debt in the West has hid the increasing poverty caused by the wealth transfer from US to China (and Japan before them) for awhile. But debt levels have risen everywhere and it's marginal utility to produce growth is nearly gone, even in China. In fact, with a no-growth economy, the world's debt levels are probably not sustainable and debt levels continue to rise faster than GDP (everywhere).  If the economy stalls or declines, corporate and government cash flows would decline and debt defaults would spike causing corporate interest rates to rise in a recession. Even sovereign debt is at risk, first in commodity producing countries and peripheral EU countries like Greece and Italy then the rest. Interest rates will rise at the worse possible time when there are debt distress/defaults.
2) Zero interest rates have prolonged that game for awhile but low or zero rates are unsustainable.  Pensions are already failing in many cities in the US and around the world as investment returns in bonds has dropped so low that pensions don't have enough money to pay benefits. Also, there are far too few workers per beneficiary now (see Demographics are Destiny below). The math doesn't work. Expect cuts in benefits which lower consumer income and spending. But higher interest rates would blow up the deficit here and kill the world economy.
3) Trump is right, the US economy is hollowed-out with the loss of manufacturing jobs and the loss of entire industries. The non-elite workers in the US are financially tapped-out with stagnate incomes and burdened with rapidly rising costs of healthcare, healthcare insurance, rents, food, drugs. Our imports are way down. China is feeling this as their exports are way down. World trade is declining. The manufacturing sector in this country has been in recession for 2 years now. General recession is likely just around the corner.
4) The economy is in near-recession despite rising debt bubbles. The US government has racked up $10 Trillion in debt in just 10 years (7% per annum rate of rise vs ~4% nominal GDP growth). China racked-up double that amount of debt. A vast expansion of auto loans that some people say is reminiscent of another subprime bubble has propped-up the auto sector. A trillion dollars in student loans have been given to students in the past 8 years and 43% of these loans are now not being payed back.And the US is still making more of these loans!
5) Demographics are destiny. The working age population of the entire world is beginning to shrink in all of the important economies. This portends shrinking demand for everything which means the end of growth for the entire world. Companies can automate, but who will they sell to?

6) The real money supply to the world, the "Eurodollar" and it's associated derivatives, has been in decay since the (see HERE) great financial crisis with a partial resurrection to 2011. Since then, banks have been exiting these shadow banking markets at an increasing rate. Just look at bank stocks to see the decline in their trading and profits. Central bankers haven't noticed this most important development as they are willfully blind and/or incompetent (they don't know what they are doing.)
7) QE doesn't work. That's obvious. Even the educated idiots at central banks can see that! They just can't admit it and it's making them look like fools. They are starting to tip-toe away from it.
8) NIRP and the risk of depositor "bail-ins" is killing the EU banking system! And NIRP and ZIRP is killing pension funds, insurance companies and retirees everywhere. The situation is completely unsustainable. Never in history have interest rates been zero or negative. It's absurd and causing more harm than good. EU banks are a systemic risk to the world. What can't be sustained, won't!
9) 30 years of declining interest rates is over. So just steady rates is a trend change. US and world rates are now rising as front-running investors can "smell" that the EU and Japan are about to get out of the QE business. Interest rates are rising now; not falling.
10) EU banks are a royal mess. Chinese debt system is a royal mess. The risk of a sudden and substantial Chinese devaluation is increasing as they will surely nationalize huge amounts of bad corporate debt that they created since 2009. Already the Chinese currency is falling slowly this year and is back to 2010 levels. Even small devaluations have roiled markets.  A sudden and substantial devaluation would set off a world-wide crash. It's possible that civil unrest may lead to social disintegration if not outright revolution at some point in China.
11) The era of cheap energy is over. If the economy tries to recover, oil prices rise so high that it kills the economy/consumers. If we can't afford high oil prices, then we cannot have growth. (because growth causes unaffordably high oil prices!) And the price at which oil is affordable, ie., $30 to even $50 per barrel, kills the oil producers and oil producing countries (and kills government revenues). The cost of extraction of a "marginal" barrel is too high now. So, energy production will continue to drop and all the oil and commodity producing countries will remain in recession or depression. What's needed to "save" us is $10 oil for an extended period or a miracle in cheap energy technology.
12) If growth is dead, then the mountain of debt, which continues to accumulate at a rate much higher than nominal GDP growth worldwide, is unsustainable. The end of the road is defaults, crises, recession and depression. Debt defaults by companies and entire countries will cause a new round of banking troubles and trouble in global supply chains. It happened in 2008 after all. Collapse is a real possibility. When it happens is the $64 Trillion question.
13) Economic stagnation, if prolonged, will cause political turmoil that will eventually affect markets and economies. Witness Catalonia, the recent Austrian election, Brexit, the election of Trump, etc. There is trouble brewing even in the US as the entire government is full of liars and cretins including the deep state, who is dedicated to overthrowing Trump's election and his plan to reform the economy. This means that, even in the US, a large portion of the US govt, the deep state, is engaged in sedition and treason.  The Deep State doesn't want reform!

So, we really are reaching the end of the road. We're all in for a rude awakening at some point.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Another Lynching By Leftist Totalitarians

Market expert Marc Faber dared speak the obvious truth about the blessings of European (white) people in North America and the even more obvious problems with the black race and instantly had his livelihood taken from him.

It's the 2nd time I've recently seen a mob lynching of a truth teller by the radical PC cultists. The other was the lynching of Paula Deen for being truthful under oath that she had used the word 'nigger' in her lifetime. (Gee, who hasn't, since it's so fitting for an awful lot of black bastards?) Instantly, she and her family were denied their hard fought TV career and their livelihood. That, my friends, is a lynching.

Marc Faber said the most obvious truths in the world and has been crucified because of it. Everyone's history is full of terrible things, but White people have mostly been a blessing to the world:

I share the same opinions and I too am NOT racist since I always meet the next person hoping to be delighted with someone's depth of knowledge, character and/or superior reasoning and logic. I can always hope. Funny how such characteristics are basically non-existent in the US black population.

MLK's dream of black people being judged by their character, not the color of their skin, is more distant than it was in 1965. It's because a large portion of this population is devolving, not improving, and they are destroying their communities and everything else (including the Democratic Party, the NFL, etc). The simple truth is that blacks destroy everything and build-up very, very little.

The truth will set you free??  Not in America or Europe. If you speak the truth, long knives will be drawn on you to protect the false memes of the Left. In Europe, you'll be prosecuted in a kangaroo court for speaking the obvious truth. In Europe, the most desperate false meme is that Muslims are wonderful people and if you say that mass migration of Muslims is a huge problem you will be prosecuted and crucified!!

In America, you must never say the obvious truth, that the bedrock of the Democratic Party, ie., black people (especially black men), REMAIN the biggest burden to this country. If you disrupt that phony meme, you will be crucified and denied your livelihood. Just ask Marc Faber and Paula Deen.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Cautionary Tale: How Socialism Ruined Venezuela

Written by Rafael Acevedo and Luis B. Cirocco from the Mises Institute. h/t to the BurningPlatform Blog:

A Brief Economic History of Venezuela

The economic miracle began a century ago, when from 1914 to 1922, Venezuela entered the international oil race. In 1914, Venezuela opened its first oil well. Fortunately, the government did not make the mistake of attempting to manage the oil business, or own the wells. The oil wells were privately owned, and in many cases were owned by private international companies that operated in Venezuela. It wasn’t totally laissez-faire, of course. There were tax incentives and other so-called concessions employed to promote exploration and exploitation of oil. But most industries — including the oil industry — remained privatized.

Moreover, during this period, tax rates in the country were relatively low.

In 1957, the marginal tax rate for individuals was 12 percent. There was certainly a state presence, and the public sector absorbed 20 percent of GDP. But, government spending was used mainly to build the country’s basic infrastructure.

The area of international trade was relatively free as well — and very free compared to today. There were tariffs that were relatively high, but there were no other major barriers to trade such as quotas, anti-dumping laws, or safeguards.

Other economic controls were few as well. There were just a few state-owned companies and virtually no price controls, no rent controls, no interest-rate controls, and no exchange-rate controls.

Of course, we weren’t free from the problems of a central bank, either. In 1939, Venezuela created its own central bank. But, the bank was largely inactive and functioned primarily defending a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar.

Moving Toward More Interventionism

Despite the high levels of economic freedom that existed during those years, government legislation started to chip away at that freedom. Changes included the nationalization of the telephone company, the creation of numerous state-owned companies, and state-owned banks. That happened in 1950. The Venezuelan government thus began sowing the seeds of destruction, and you can see the continued deterioration in the level of economic freedom in the decade of the 1950s.

In 1958, Venezuela became a democracy when the dictatorship was overthrown. With that came all the usual benefits of democracy such as freedom of the press, universal suffrage, and other civil rights. Unfortunately, these reforms came along with continued destruction of our economic freedom.

The first democratically elected president was Rómulo Betancourt. He was a communist-turned-social democrat. In fact, while he was in exile, he founded the Communist Party in Costa Rica and helped found the Communist Party in Colombia as well. Not surprisingly, as president, he started destroying the economic institutions we had by implementing price controls, rent controls, and other regulations we hadn’t had before. On top of that, he and his allies created a new constitution that was hostile to private property.

In spite of this — or perhaps because of it — Betancourt is almost universally revered in Venezuela as “the father of our democracy.” This remains true even today as Venezuela collapses.

Of course, compared to today, we had far greater economic freedom under Betancourt than we do in today’s Venezuela. But, all of the presidents — with one exception — who came after Betancourt took similar positions and continued to chip away at economic freedom. The only exception was Carlos Andrés Pérez who in his second term attempted some free market reforms. But, he executed these later reforms so badly and haphazardly that markets ended up being blamed for the resulting crises.

The Rise of Hugo Chávez

Over time, the destruction of economic freedom led to more and more impoverishment and crisis. This in turn set the stage for the rise of a political outsider with a populist message. This, of course, was Hugo Chávez. He was elected in 1998 and promised to replace our light socialism with more radical socialism. This only accelerated the problems we had been facing for decades. Nevertheless, he was able to pass through an even more anti-private-property constitution.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

The Top 20% of Taxpayers Support Nearly All The Rest

From Mark Perry who is a sane Professor of Economics and American Enterprise scholar:


The data is a bit old (2013), but it shows the truth about the takers vs the makers.  Mark is taking into account both payroll taxes and income taxes in his analysis.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

White People Should Be Protesting Black Violence and Crime

The insanity of the cry-baby millionaire NFL fools protesting bullshit "structural racism" or nearly non-existent police brutality is so frigging annoying!  I just wrote a blog "MSM Lies Has Led To NFL Protest Insanity" where the Left Wing media has propagated lies that have brainwashed many people---like Colin Kaepernick.  In fact, you could correctly say that nearly 50% of the US population is brainwashed by the false narratives of the Left and their mouthpieces in the MSM, especially about racial issues.

Every year, about 8,000 black persons are killed by other blacks. That's more than 1/2 of the total murders committed each year in the entire country and it's committed by just 3% of the population (young black men)! But these black lives don't apparently matter, since we hear no protests about this outrageous loss of life.  But when one or two black scumbags are shot and killed by police, the media shows up and starts massive propaganda with the goal of inciting even more violence. Only when the national media is present does any black lives matter. Black Lives Matter is complete and utter bullshit. So is "Hands Up, Don't Shot." It didn't happen that way. Thug Brown was charging officer Wilson in Ferguson.

For the record, only about 200 blacks are shot dead each year by police but 8,000 blacks are killed by other black criminals. And I'm sure most of those 200 killed are justified given that the term "war zones" best describes most majority-black neighborhoods. After all, blacks bring nothing but destruction where they live.

From the Burningplatform blog: Black men make up about 6% of the US population. Young black men make up about 3% of the population. So understand clearly that only 3% of the US population is primarily responsible for:
  • 53% of all the murders in the US
  • 55% of all the robberies in the US
  • 29% of all the rapes in the US
  • 33% of all the aggravated assaults in the US
  • 28% of all the larceny thefts in the US
  • 31% of all the motor vehicle thefts in the US
  • 23% of all the arson’s in the US
We should have a million man march on Washington to protest the destruction of our country by these black scumbags! Black men are really the largest problem in our country -- filling our prisons after committing crimes at 7 times the rate of whites.  And NFL cheerleaders should be taking a knee to protest NFL player's violence against women! Blacks, on average, are deeply flawed people and barely civilized.

Those stupid fuckers in the NFL should go to Africa and have a look around to see what a shit hole it is.  In some areas bodies just lie in the street since human life is so denigrated  I know because I've lived and worked in Africa.  Black people in America, especially since 1965, should be thanking God in heaven that they are living in this fantastic country--- founded by White, mostly English-speaking intellectual giants-- and NOT living in the chronically and totally failed continent of Africa.

Screw those glorified babies in the NFL.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

MSM Lies Has Led to NFL Protest Insanity

The current NFL nonsense of disrespecting the National Anthem claiming systemic racism -- or something like that --has it's roots in a long string of misrepresentation and propaganda from MSM outlets and politician's (most notably Obama) propagating this same incorrect information from about 3 years earlier.

The entirely justified shooting of proven thug Michael Brown is the source of the bullshit "hands up, don't shoot" protests and part of the Black Lives Matter nonsense. It's all bullshit and both of these "movements" are based on lies.

The lies came from Media propaganda race baiters and politicians that keep repeating these lies for years. That's the Left's modus operandi: keep repeating lies or falsehoods often enough and it begins to have the feeling of facts--- even when it's not true. As a result, there's been frequent "hands up don't shoot" protests for the past several years and as far away as in London but it's all based on lies.

The Black Lives Matter was based on widely perceived unfair shootings of black suspects by white cops. There have been some outrageous cases of police acting illegally, but the CDC database shows that police, when interacting with the public, police are twice as likely to shoot and kill a white person compared to blacks. This is true even though police are interacting with Blacks at 7 times the rate of whites--which means that police have more interactions in total with Blacks even though they are 5 times fewer in number! And the CDC has the largest and most definitive database for this kind of information, so, anyone claiming that blacks are being unfairly attacked by police is wrong. I know it feels that way, but it's not factual. It's lies.  And no media outlet would ever report facts that correct these prevailing falsehoods, so the lies have taken on a life on their own.  This suits the Left Wing media's goal of attacking police and white people while hiding the despicable nature and huge numbers of black criminals and shocking levels of crime in black areas. They never expose the virtual war zone that police operate in when confronting black suspects.

Then there's the highly despicable Michael Brown case, where a young and fat black thug robbed and roughed-up a convenience store clerk just minutes before his attack on Officer Wilson in Ferguson. What's really despicable here is that ABC News was running with the entirely made-up story that Michael was an angelic guy headed to college even days after video was widely available about his robbery and assault at the convenience store.

Then protests erupted based on false reporting and black businesses in Ferguson were destroyed and black people were injured. If it were left to the black politicians, black race- baiters and protesters, they would surely pursue mob justice. But in civilized white America, we have rule of law and due process. Months later the Grand Jury declined to indict Wilson.

The Ferguson riots became a media circus full of poseurs and race baiters. The whole story really fell apart but black people clung to the racist charges because that's what they are taught.

I read the transcript from the Grand Jury inquiry into the Michael Brown shooting. First of all, witnesses confirm that Michael was assaulting officer Wilson while he was seated in his car. (his 2nd assault in 20 minutes!)  He was enraged and completely out of control. Michael was trying to gain control of Wilson's gun by reaching into the car and wrestle away the gun. Can you imagine? Brown WAS insane or had a death wish. Then, most witnesses said that Michael at first was walking away then turned and charged at Wilson causing the gunshots that killed him. This charging was confirmed by forensic evidence. He might have had his hands up as Wilson commanded but he still was charging. So, the media lies and never corrects the record.

So. fast forward 3 years, and idiot Kaepernick started to protest alleged racism at football games. Did anyone ask him to be more specific??  I doubt it. Now you have entire black-dominated NFL involved in this idiotic protesting -- all based on false stories and fake news. The MSM must be proud.

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Let's Be VERY Clear About Racism In This Country

The lying Left, racist black "leaders", the despicable Democrats and Left Wing media complex have pushed and continue to push the false stereotype or generalization that “white” (Caucasian) people are racists simply because of their skin color, and they voted for Trump on that basis alone which is extremely condescending to the tens of millions of people who supported him for his policies. Such generalizations make these people massively racist: such generalizations are the very definition of racism.

Democrats and the MSM that need a good tar and feathering, starting with scumbag Obama. Of course if they did get one, and they deserve it, it'll be because of "racists!"

And a similar false "narrative" or meme was pushed by the despicable Hillary Clinton when she blanket-accused most of Trump supporters as racists, xenophobes, sexists, etc. Not only are they deplorable, they are irredeemable. This is essentially a racist message even though Trump nor his supporters EVER said one bad thing about blacks in his campaign -- EVER. He invited blacks to his rallies, and a few showed up. Trump pointed out publicly the rather obvious truth that black person's fortunes under Democratic party "leadership" have been terrible and encouraged them to "try something new given that they have little left to lose." But 95% of blacks fail to make the connection between their "Democrat" allegiance and the utter decay/collapse of their communities. Trump wants to help blacks! Remember when Trump made plenty of time to receive black celebrities and a few black leaders at Trump Tower after his election? There is not one shred of evidence that Trump is racist.

But Hillary implied that Trump and his supporters were "Brown Shirts" and Trump was Hitler. This gave the green light to her followers that it's alright to kill such a people. I mean, if someone is another Hitler, then someone must stop him even with violence, right?  Some months later, Republican Congressmen practicing baseball to prepare for a fun, bipartisan baseball contest were under gunfire from a brainwashed Hillary supporter. Many were injured and one Congressman almost died. It could have been far worse. HILLARY AND THE LEFT CAUSED THIS.  They all have blood on her hands. (Given the number of dead bodies left behind in the Clinton's political history, it is Bill and Hillary that are truly like Hitler, who murdered opponents to gain/maintain power.) 

In the same way, Obama had blood on his hands when, in every instance, took a stance against law enforcement in any headline case of white officers interacting with black citizens. Obama's reactions were always knee-jerk and without any facts---showing his obvious bias and racism. Obama and all the black "leadership" assumed that the white officer in every case was guilty. This is just mob rule that you might see in a 3rd world country. (like in Africa??)  But, in each case it inflamed already chaotic and emotional situation, causing destruction of black businesses and black deaths. Obama has blood on his hands (but he will NEVER see it).

Heck, it started early on with the Cambridge cop incident. Obama invited that officer over for beer, but you can be 100% sure that he learned NOTHING even though he pronounced it a "learning opportunity." He learned nothing but a portion of the nation learned a great deal. And Obama never learned anything in his LLD either as we found out over the years.  

And Obama took up space in a highly competitive law program at Harvard, learned nothing and prevented a better and smarter candidate from benefiting from the program. This is called Affirmative Action but is really just racism against much higher qualified Asians and Whites. 

The epicenter of racism in this country is now found in the Black community -- not White. I'll bet that 90% of black people will agree with the statement that "white people are holding them down." Why wouldn't they believe that? The Democratic Party has been drumming that message home for decades. They still are! The problem is that it's not true. It USED to be true but no longer. What's holding black people down is their inability to graduate high school, the failure to speak proper English, the self-segregation of themselves into separate and very unequal and violent communities, the collapse of black family, the absence of black fathers, their behavior--the outrageous black-on-black violence, the crime, the murders, the HIV infections, the prostitution, hoochie mamas, shameful thugs and despicable rap "culture," the gangs and the large rate of incarceration of black youths and men, their horrible national black "leadership." All of the black people who claim that white people are "holding them down" need to look in the mirror. Will they EVER take responsibility?  

There are very few white racists. They’re such a small minority of the population as to be statistically irrelevant. The Ku Klux Klan has only several thousand members nationwide, which pales in comparison to the at least 100,000-200,000 members of the Alt-Left militant group “Antifa”, which has proven to be much more violent and dangerous than their Alt-Right counterparts.

The Charlottesville White Supremacist parade and subsequent propaganda shows everything you need to know about the agenda of the Left to ultimately overthrow Trump and the nation. 

First, that the Charlottesville police department told their police to stand down was probably arranged in advance by Leftist troublemakers/organizations to be sure that some incident occurred. Second, the instigators/agitators were bused-in and paid by Leftist groups such as Soros or even Obama's "Organization for Action" group. Then Google/YouTube suppressed video evidence that the peaceful white protesters were attacked by paid thugs (and didn't fight back). Then, when Trump dared suggest that Left Wing Thugs were as bad as the Supremacists (they were actually worse and violent), it started the MSM propaganda campaign to smear Trump and his supporters as a racist (once again). After all, Trump = white supremacist, right??  

And we'll never find out the true facts of this case in any kind of official report because the entire government, the corrupt Deep State, all of the politicos in Washington DC are aligned against Trump and plotting a scenario to justify overturning the 2016 election. They don't want the truth known. They want Trump out! It's massive sedition and treason in our own government.

The end game of the Left is clear. Stir up trouble, twist the facts to incessantly imply that all white people are racist and hope for the day that some fed-up white people lash out at black or brown thugs in a real crime, then brand more white people as racists---especially Trump.  

As noted at Zero Hedge; "the “Deep State” and Soros-affiliated Alt-Left groups want to spark pronounced disorder and chaos in the US to fuel a Color Revolution which would then rapidly descend into an Unconventional War of urban terrorism and political killings, all with the intent of driving Trump to become the “fascist dictator” that they fear mongered he’d become so as to have a basis for pushing through impeachment proceedings against him should racial minorities be killed if he implements limited martial law in response."  

It won't work. Some of us can see what's going on.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Are Muslims Bad People?

When is a group's reputation deserved?  Is it unfair to generalize about a group of people due to the actions of a minority?

Are Muslims bad people?   

Sadly, the evidence is that Muslim communities across the world are causing nothing but strife and murder wherever they are found. They don't seem to be able to get along with either themselves or anyone else. 

For example, even though Muslims are an extremely small portion of Thailand's population (<2%), there's been over 4500 murders of Buddhists by the Muslim minority in Southern Thailand since 2004 alone. And Thailand is a peaceful, prosperous and tolerant place -- except in these Southern provinces. No tourist wants to go there!  Eventually, you'll hear MSM complain about "genocide" when Thai authorities finally drive these people out. How many thousands of dead bodies will it take before the Thai army loses their mind over this problem and they lash out at this group?  

Backlash and possibly genocide against Muslims is occurring right now in Myanmar--Thailand's neighbor. This week alone, normally peaceful Myanmar Buddhists are chasing 100s of thousands of Rohingya Muslims out of their country due to clashes and violence with this small (<4%) minority. This violence and strife has been going on there for 100+ years. 

There has been a murderous Islamic insurgency in Mindanao in Southern Philippines for many decades. This week alone in the Philippines, some 24,000 Muslims are being displaced by Philippine military action against Jihadists in Mindanao.  Even Indonesia had a war against Aceh's Muslim fundamentalists until the 2004 tsunami wiped out about 300,000 of these people in Medan, Aceh. Only then was there an peace accord.

Speaking of just this week, Muslim murderers have killed 273 people and injured 259 in 14 countries -- all in the name of their God and religion.  This from TheReligionOf Peace website.



The murderous ISIS has been running rampant in the Middle East and now N. Africa causing mayhem and murder there and now in Europe. Sorry Obama, these people see themselves as the standard-bearer of Islam whether you see it or not. Europe has seen some 35 major Islamic terrorist attacks in the past year alone despite Europe's well-meaning effort to provide refuge to Muslim Arabs fleeing the failed economies and cultures in the Middle East and North Africa. These refugees will bring their failed ideas and ruin Europe. It's a clash of civilization that is entirely avoidable. Absurd, politically correct fools in Europe are responsible. Political correctness causes death!!

Muslims are the epicenter of religious violence across the world. Since 2001 alone, world-wide there have been about 250,000 Islam-inspired murders and another estimated 250,000 wounded from Jihadi attacks (a total which excludes war-related deaths). That equates to ~2 million deaths per century--NOT including wars! The entire history of Islam is full of violence and murder

Muslims are full of terrible and ignorant ideas that bring nothing but misery and death to themselves and those around them.  Most of Arab/Muslim regions in the Middle East and North Africa are now in a cultural and political collapse. This collapse is due to their failed Muslim/Arab culture, their beliefs, their bad ideas, their self-imposed poor education (emphasis on religious education) -- all of which is causing chronically failed economies and tyrannical leaders. "Islam" is nearly synonymous with failed countries and cultures.

One of their biggest problems with them is that there are often motivated and violent minorities within Muslim communities that believe in violence as a means of advancing their agenda or conflict resolution. And yes, their scripture, the Quran, has plenty of passages that justify "wiping out" infidels (anyone else) as a means to an end. Even today, middle east Muslims are actively wiping-out Christians in that region--continuing centuries of war against both Christianity and Judaism. Don't forget that nearly every Muslim country is dedicated to the destruction of Israel and all the Jews.

Hatred of Jews and even Christians is part of their religion and has been since it's inception since it's supported by their Qu'ran.  Remember that the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem sat at the right hand of Hitler in WWII.  

And wherever there is Jew-hatred there is gay-hatred. ISIS has been throwing suspected gay people to their deaths off of tall buildings ignoring any kind of due process or anything else that might be called civilized. 

Another integral part of their ideology is their belief in "conquering" and dominating the world by creating an Islamic dominated Caliphate (of misery). I lived in Jakarta in 2007 and saw an entire football stadium full of "mainstream" Indonesians celebrating this belief. Islam is a supremacist (and bigoted) ideology.

And for every violent Jihadi attack, there are brothers, sisters, mothers or others that know what is about to happen, but they never inform authorities. And very rarely does anyone in this religion speak out forcefully against the violence caused by their own community. Muslims are really today's modern day Nazi party.  And there were plenty of "nice" or "good" people in the Nazi party too, so don't kid yourself.

There is so much wrong with this group.  Muslims are full of bad ideas that cause poverty, unhappiness and violence in their communities.  Their inability or refusal to reform or change makes them bad people. They have been bad people for a VERY long time.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Canceling DACA and Obama's Lawlessness

Yesterday, Trump and Jeff Sessions said that the DACA executive order is now canceled with a 6 month delay to allow Congress to act (good luck with that).  This came as a faux-shock to Democrats even though the US Supreme Court has ruled Obama's DACA overreach was squarely unconstitutional. Obama admitted that he didn't have the authority to implement DACA but he did it anyway.

Rule by executive order means that it's easy to reverse them by a subsequent administration.

Obama was not a law and order president. He was the unlawful and disorder president.  Obama's refusal to enforce immigration law virtually invited a surge of unaccompanied minors and everyone else at our southern border. Obama said that it's "not smart" to enforce immigration law. This, of course caused a surge of illegals and anarchy in states and communities along our Southern tier. Then he covertly organized buses to distribute illegals to various communities across the country and thereby acted in concert with the drug cartel's smuggling of migrants for pay! Yes, that's right, Obama was "doing business" with the Mexican drug cartels! Really Obama was our anarchist in chief -- which is consistent with his Leftist Activist/Globalist agenda.

He never missed an opportunity to inflame race relations and show blatant anti-white discrimination especially when it came to white police officers. He refused to enforce many laws when that was his sole duty -- because he didn't like them! He and his black Attorneys General lied all the time to cover their misdeeds and failures. They ignored Congress' demand for information all the time. Because he was unable to work with anyone in Congress, he broke or bent the law dozens of times.  And he did everything possible to divide and hurt this nation. And he did everything he could to also hurt America's interests abroad, weaken the US or to snub traditional US allies.  His and Hillary's foreign policy was a unmitigated disaster -- 100% failure all around. What a disaster!

It's no wonder many Americans questioned if he really was American which explains the persistence of his birth certificate controversy. He always seemed like he didn't like America. And that's true and very few other black "leader" really like America. They are so brainwashed and steeped in racism against white people.

Him and every other black "leader" in this country would bring ruin to this country (just look at every black nation or Baltimore, Detroit and every other black majority city in this country-- all disasters). The truth is that all of these fools are anti-America (OK, 90%). Hell, these "leaders" all admired Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro for God's sake. Their foolish, stupid and outlandish ideas would reduce America to a 3rd world country, just like every other black majority country in the world. "Black" is literally a synonym for scheming, scamming, corruption, crime, murder, dysfunction, poverty, destruction and misery -- found in virtually every majority black place in the world. Obama and all his supporters would bring the same thing to America given enough time.

Let's hope that America never has another black president for 1000 years.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Victimhood And The Utter Devastation of US Blacks

The recovery in Texas is well underway. The search and rescue stage rapidly transitioned to a rebuilding stage-- all done through civilized people organizing themselves and doing what's necessary. There is NO Federal involvement at all in these most important hours. The State of Texas quickly activated the National Guard and shelters sprang up thanks to the City of Houston and private agencies to house the flood-displaced. Locals have turned out in droves to assist. But the Feds haven't done anything. And that's a good thing!

Texas shows what happens what a civic-minded  populations (Whites and Hispanics) do when there is a need: they get off their ass and start doing something. I call it "spontaneous organization." It occurs where people show up and band together in a common cause. The "Cajun Navy" took it upon itself to show up and got to work with the rain still pouring down! The "Texas Navy" also showed up!

Compare this to the pathetic response of Big Government (FEMA) to Katrina where it took the Feds one week just to show up. During that week, the local black population at first did nothing but wait, complain and starve to death. Mind you, all of these people were told to evacuate days earlier, but blacks don't respect anyone in authority--white or black. Then they immediately descended into a criminal, violent mayhem. They literally have no idea of working together nor any understanding of a common good. Whites in New Orleans might have helped, but they knew to stay miles away from these people. Soon thousands of blacks fled to Houston (and other places) causing the Houston crime rate to skyrocket. In short, they aren't civilized people. And they aren't anywhere else in the world either.

The combination of Blacks and Big Government (Democrats) is beyond pathetic. It's harmful, toxic and ruinous. And they want to extend this ruin to the rest of the nation too.

A couple of friends of mine went to volunteer at one of the large venues in Houston used to house displaced persons. They were sweeping and cleaning while able-bodied blacks sat and watched and played the victim card. They didn't lift a finger. Mind you, none of these people were injured, just displaced by water in their dwellings. My friends were rightly furious!

We've seen this before on a larger scale too. Both Detroit and Pittsburgh lost 50% of their population due to the de-industrialization that was permitted by both national political parties over 40 years. But Detroit's decay was also caused by 60 years of corrupt, criminal and incompetent black Democrats voted-in by a stupid electorate (repeated in a similar way in many major cities). Detroit ended up in moral and economic bankruptcy thanks to Blacks and Democrats. Now it's in the hands of white attorneys and white bankruptcy judges who have finally started to turn things around. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, after it's economic devastation, picked itself up, recovered and was recently voted the best city to live in the US. The difference? Pittsburgh is 90% white and Detroit is 70% black. The difference is literally black and white.

There is little evidence that any majority black community or nation on earth can adequately manage themselves and/or govern themselves. This is as true in Baltimore, New Orleans and Detroit as it is from Africa to Brazil. Black populations only tear down and rarely "build up." They literally ruin everything.

Black majorities elsewhere in the world are failing and collapsing -- and very few ascending. Every black majority city in the Americas (both North and South) is highly dangerous due to murders, crime, chaos and have poor health, lower life expectancy and widespread poverty. This is true even in the US after massive transfer payments for decades from the government to help them! The war on poverty has failed because black culture has failed; in part, because of this government intervention. The US has "helped" black people like they "helped" Native Americans.

Johnson's war on poverty, with $21 Trillion pissed away (and paid for by OPM), has ended up causing more poverty than ever. It turns out that Johnson's "war on poverty" was just a scheme to buy votes -- and it worked! 90% of blacks still vote for "free stuff." That Hillary was the most corrupt person to EVER run for President didn't matter. And evidence of her $100 million bribery scheme was never reported by the Left-wing scumbag media. Blacks, who never know anything, blind to everything, turned out for her in droves. They literally don't know what's good for them. Or it's never dawned on them to vote for the good of country -- not their free stuff.

And Democrats have emphasized to their faithful followers that they are victims and they are correct to blame the white man for all their problems. Their state of victim-hood is complete. The result is utter devastation.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

A Theology For the 21st Century

When we use words or nouns, they are just symbols that point to something.  When I say God, I am pointing to any/all of the following things: 
  • Ultimate reality (Paul Tillich),
  • Ground of our Being (Paul Tillich)
  • The Beyond (Depth) Within Our Midst (Dietrich Bonhoeffer)
  • That Which We Take Seriously Without Reservation; our ultimate concern
  • That which is really real
  • That which is at the heart of things
  • The ultimate meaning in our lives
I like to think about Moses’ encounter with Yahweh (God) in the Desert in Egypt (Exodus 3:2 to 3:15) where God announces to Moses that he is commanding him to go to the Pharaoh and free the children of Israel. Moses asks God, when I speak to my people and they ask to whom I spoke with and “What is HIS name?” what should I tell them?  God said to Moses, ‘I AM THAT I AM.’ And He said “Thus you shall say to the children of Israel, I AM has sent me to you.” “This is My name forever and this My memorial to all generations.”

I find this a pivotal passage because God is saying that he is “I AM” --meaning that God is “I AM-ness,” that he is “being” or even “being-itself.”  I go on to interpret this to mean that God is the ground of (our) being or the deepest part of (our) being. If God is at the heart of our being, then God knows you better than you know yourself. And if God is Being than we are participating in God and God is in us!! God is in you.

So when I say “God,” I am pointing to this “ground of our being” or the ultimate reality in our existence. God is not an object ‘out there’ or ‘up there,’ but the ground of our being, the ultimate depth in our existence and the ultimate in our reality. God is not A supreme being but supreme being (-itself)!!  So, I don’t need to prove the existence of anything, I just need to clarify that I am pointing to the depths of our being. That exists.

No sophisticated person has an idea of God as an old man “up there,” do they?  If they do, those people will indeed find it difficult to prove their position.

Our Physical Life Is Ephemeral. Materialism Is A Bust

Physically, everyone of us is quite literally a cloud of protons, electrons and neutrons. That is 100% true. (Everything else is too.) And there are vast spaces between these whirring particles, so we’re literally ‘just’ a cloud of particles. We have mass because the particles do have weight.

And we’re hardly the same person that we were a few years ago. Most of our cells are being replaced, so we are literally not who we were 2 years ago. My old skin cells have completely sloughed-off and my skin is entirely new compared to 2 years ago. (It’s true that the brain cells are not replaced, but many are dying and other cells are then adapted)  All of your hair is being constantly replaced with new hair cells. So, physically, we’re really in flux!!  Everything about us physically is extremely transitory. Our physical being is so “shaky.” (And then we die which is really dis-integrative!)

But obviously we are more than clouds of particles. We are sentient beings (so are dogs and other animals).  We have being, a soul or a “spirit.” We have depth. We build things. We think. We write. We create. We create meaning in our lives in relation to others. We read the teachings of Jesus and the Prophets who taught us what has ultimate meaning and what really matters. We rightfully point to Jesus as fully human and fully God...meaning that he supremely shows what it’s like to be fully “connected” to God (the Word became flesh), the ultimate reality of our lives and world. And this reality looks something like a passion for justice, a love and goodwill for others—especially for the rejected, the poor, the sick. In the N.T., love is the greek word agape meaning a goodwill (a will for the good) for all those we meet (including our enemies!).  In fact, it is my personal understanding that God wills for the good for all of us!! God loves (agape) us! And when we physically disintegrate (die), it's likely that a part of the being within us continues in some way, but maybe not our self-awareness. But who knows??

Clues to understanding the nature of God, the “ground of our being” is also revealed by reading scripture but also studying great philosophers and thinkers, understanding great science, and reading great works that illuminate the really deep things of our lives. The more you know the better. This is the path to wisdom--not foolishness. Also, really great scientists, when pondering the profound depth of physics, or look out in the expanses of the cosmos, or look through the most powerful microscopes, sometimes perceive something profound and moving at “the heart of things.” Many have a profound or moving experience at those moments (religious experiences?). The same thing might happen to a great writer.

Implications

Wherever there is no God, there are only fools. It’s true because if you don’t know anything of God -- that which is at the heart of things or the really real, then you are going to be really lost and foolish. This is happening all over the place today, including universities where God is intentionally sidelined. Maybe these people have rejected religion because they think religion is based on a God as an old man in the sky “up there” or “out there.” We really need our religious traditions for answers to the question "what really matters?" But "traditional" or conventional religion may be unnecessarily alienating people from religion. We shouldn't teach children religious fairy tales in Sunday school since many of these kid's religious ideas never grow up.

There are very few real Atheists. The only true Atheists would be people who kill themselves. Apart from mental problems, killing yourself is the ultimate expression of your belief that life has no meaning or worth. Just getting out of bed in the morning is a statement that life has meaning. It’s worth getting out of bed. In a way, whatever people think has ultimate meaning to them is their God. For instance, extremely greedy people obsessed only with obtaining money have basically elevated money to a God. It animates their life just like God since it might really be their ultimate concern. And they might have a great deal of money, since it means so much to them.

Process Theology

Process theology, started by Alfred North Whitehead (a physicist and contemporary of Einstein), and expounded by John Cobb, Charles Hartshorne and many others, says that God, in addition to being ultimate reality is also the creative force in the universe that is pulling and tugging all things toward the “good.”  He is the force in the universe who works consistently and persistently in calling/pulling all “entities” toward deeper/higher levels of existence. My understanding from Process Theology is that God is working in humans, persuasively and persistently in our hearts and minds to subtlety and consistently pull us toward a greater and profound existence –toward the good. This “tug to the good” can easily be ignored---and many do! 

Friday, August 18, 2017

Economic Stagnation Is Causing Unrest And Leading to Collapse

Insanity, illegality and hysteria is boiling-up everywhere now:
  • the mindless, ignorant and criminal flash-mobs tearing down the Confederate Statues, all supported by mindless, know-nothing 20-somethings in the media who latched on this issue to further denigrate white people in general and especially to create a new fake meme to denigrate Trump.
  • The vast majority of television media are all now completely and obviously Left Wing radicals (idiots) who have given up any pretense of objectivity. They all HATE Trump and ALL are working (illegally) to remove this Constitutionally-elected president. 
  • Despite government being the cause of all the big problems in this country, young people are supporting an octogenarian Marxist dinosaur (Sanders) who would bring even more Socialism (and certain destruction) to this country. 
  • Organized marches after the election with no point; led and followed by people who know nothing, 
  • Washington in a total state of incompetence and total deadlock, Everything is broken, and nothing fixed. Nothing will be fixed according to the Democrats.
  • The Democratic party has decayed to utter uselessness, pointlessness and obstruction and the Republicans are almost as bad,
  • The Left has fomented a McCarthy-esque witch hunt to blame Russia for their candidate's failure and have been trying unsuccessfully to find a "smoking gun" (none exists).
  • Lawlessness erupting from States/Municipalities who (illegally) flout Federal laws with nonsense "sanctuary cities" 
  • California declaring that they will (illegally) seek to follow the ridiculous Paris Climate accords after Trump exited the accord --States are forbidden to follow their own foreign policy by the Constitution, 
Much of individual's frustration with our country is due to the fact that there are not enough jobs with adequate pay, too few opportunities, and inflation is raging while there is too little money. There is literally no hope because no politician even admits to any problem! If they can't admit that there is a problem, there certainly will be no solution.  Janet Yellen keeps saying that everything is rosy while she keeps calling for even more (destructive) inflation! Obama crowed for years that the economy is wonderful. So did Ben Bernanke. Who wouldn't forgive people feeling frustrated? The economy is so bad, who would blame a young person to call for Socialism as an alternative?

Every statistic from the government is a lie. Unemployment is advertised as lowest in decades ('technically' true but basically bullshit).  Obama constantly crowed that the economy is great (it's not), our wars are nearly won (they are all lost), voters are told by presidential candidates that the government will create jobs (nonsense).

This generation, and any future generation, can't afford college now thanks to the still-unchecked Govt loan bubble inflating books and tuition to the moon. This and the next generation can't afford a house since the Federal Reserve has inflated them beyond their reach. The next generation is screwed. No one can afford even a modest medical procedure without being bankrupted, leading to a situation where few can pay their medical bills -- all thanks to the Govt-sponsored medical/pharma cartels and the dominance of Govt spending in medicine.

Our war on poverty has failed, our war on drugs has failed, the country hasn't outright won a war since WWII, the government caused two financial crashes in the past 15 years and another is about to burst. Each time the economy gets even worse. It's all because of the US govt. And no one learns a thing. The entire government colossus should be burnt down. It's time for a new American Revolution, really a massive reset, to do it.

"Government" is causing everything to fail. Everything "government" touches turns to shit. Worse news of all: Government is touching most everything!

Government at all levels (and low median IQ) has caused a near total cultural collapse of the black population in this country. And they are near revolt. Black poverty is higher than ever thanks in part to government destruction of black families (thanks to the Great Society War on Poverty). "Government" has caused ruin to the lives of Blacks just like they ruined the lives of the Native Americans. Multi-generational welfare rot, ruined public housing, utterly dysfunctional unionized schools, massive ignorance and drug and alcohol addiction is rampant. Now about 10% of all black men are in prison. Even black high school graduation rates are exaggerated because no one is counting the large number of young black kids in jail.

The rest of the population is not doing well either thanks to the de-industrialization of our country by 30+ years of Globalist politicians. There is literally no hope left in large parts of the country. To wit, opium addiction and overdose is suddenly now killing 50,000 people per year. And alarmingly, life expectancy is declining in this country.  The US is NOT the shining city on the hill anymore. There is no hope out there.

Against this backdrop, Donald Trump narrowly won a victory over the most corrupt politician to ever run for President in this country. Hillary Clinton, who only had government jobs, amassed a slush fund of $100,000,000 by taking bribery payments from just about any corrupt government or individual in return for future political favors -- all while "serving" (really failing miserably) as Sec of State (the entire scheme collapsed after her defeat).This was all made clear by Wikileaks and the Fox News network, but still about 50% of the US voters voted for her despite the obvious and outrageous corruption and failures. And there have been unexplained and suspicious murders of anyone coming forward to point out the real story of this slush fund. Truly, we're getting near the darkest days of our history.

Trump won by forcefully speaking, in plain language and with obvious truth, of the ongoing dramatic national decline and he rightfully proposed individual and corporate tax reform, reversal of Obama's damaging Exec Orders, a reversal of the damaging trade deals done by previous administrations, an end to the ridiculous open borders and promised to reverse many of the trends noted above. He even promised to re-establish Glass Steagall to reduce financial risk. He promised to drain the huge Washington swamp and many more things. All are laudable but impossible.

It turns out that the swamp is much bigger than one man. All of the Democrats, the entire Left Wing media establishment, most of the Corporate elites and many of the Republican party are working against any reform at all. The millions of Democrats embedded in the Washington bureaucracy (80% Dems) are also working against Trump. Even Obama is (illegally) operating a political opposition organization in DC to overthrow Trump! Half the nation is working to remove Trump and using violence, profanity, falsehoods, smears, lies, fake news, fake memes, false flag operations and witch hunts to do it. In other words: anything to stop him!

They want him out through any means, legal or illegal. If people helped Trump, he might have made a real difference. He has many of the right ideas. Instead, what the people want is another Globalist politician, just like the ones who have brought ruin to this nation.  

These are yet more reasons why I believe that a social/economic collapse is coming as I warned here and here.  We're probably just weeks or months away from it's onset.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Smartphone Addiction Is Causing (Even More) Mental Health Problems

Data shows that our rampant phone addiction in this country is causing more loneliness, more depression, fewer "real" friends (isolation), less dating, less sleep, less time with friends and less sex-especially in our youngest generation.

In fact, Jean Twenge, a professor of psychology at San Diego State University, says in an article in Atlantic magazine (and an upcoming book), that the group of young people born between 1995 and 2012, who she calls the "iGens," are facing a mental health crisis: "It's not an exaggeration to describe iGen as being on the brink of the worst mental health crisis in decades." And she says it's largely because of smartphones.

And what about all those websites that garner all our young people's attention, like Facebook, Whatsapp, Snapchat and others?  They are feeding into this phone addiction and the resulting social isolation. It's supremely ironic that so-called social media is actually anti-social. I've been of that opinion for some time. And these kids are "communicating" on little chat windows which reduces communication to the most trivial and superficial level possible. They're reducing human communications to silly cartoon "emojis" for goodness sake! Gone are real conversations using full sentences, real social interaction and real logic.  

Worse, Facebook and Twitter and others are subtlety manipulating our young people through algorithms that suppress conservative thought and promote Leftism.  And their time-wasting sites are actually ruining a new generation and feeding into another unhealthy addiction which hurts the nation.


Saturday, July 29, 2017

The False Memes, Phony Causes and Lies of Democrats

These days, the Democrats have become the party of the insane and/or intellectually deficient, the brainwashed, the scumbags and the ne'er-do-wells and liars, and as a party they cling to nothing but false and phony memes and causes. There is so much that Democrats believe that is just not true!  What good are they?

Here's current phony memes and causes that characterize the Democratic party from James Kunstler's blog:
  • Russia "hacked the election of 2016" (no evidence required and they MIGHT have hacked the DNC exposing nasty, tricky schemes and dirt).
  • Russia (Vladimir Putin in particular) is bent on destroying the USA.
  • All immigrants, legal or illegal, have equal status before the law.
  • National borders are inconvenient, cruel, and obsolete.
  • Western Civilization is a malignant force in human history.
  • Islam is “the religion of peace,” no matter how many massacres of “infidels” are carried out in its name.
  • Men are a negative force in society. White men are especially negative.
  • Brownie points given for behaviors under the rubric LBGTQ.
  • All discussion about race problems and conflicts is necessarily racist.
  • The hijab (head covering worn in public by some Muslim women) is a device of liberation for women.
  • There should be a law against using the wrong personal pronoun for people who consider themselves neither men nor women (recently passed by the Canadian parliament).
  • A unifying common culture is unnecessary in national life (anything goes).
  • Colonizing Mars is a great solution to problems on Earth.
I'll add a few more false memes of the Democrats:

Blacks are intellectually equal to whites. It's the biggest and most obvious lie of our day. Every standardized test in the universe says it's not true. Some 50 to 60% of minorities are not graduating high schools. Trump was correct and realistic to suggest more emphasis on trade schools for high school dropouts for those not suitable for college.  

Welfare and income support is helping blacks.  We know how government "helps" people. The $21 Trillion "war on poverty" has succeeded in tearing apart the vast majority of black households and has increased poverty-- not reduced it! 

More taxes are good because they will cure income inequality.  Bernie Sander's approach is a 90% top tax rate top that would hurt everyone. He's really a Marxist idiot.  And look, Cuba solved income inequality but it resulted in most people earning just $30 per month!  Dems ignore the obvious role of increasing debt on income inequality as higher debt hurts the economy but helps the wealthy. They also ignore all the easy money created by the Federal Reserve creates inequality by helping the wealthy by inflating securities (stocks and bonds) -- enriching the already rich but creates inflation which hurts the bottom 90%.

Social Security has a "lock box" and is fully funded until 2024. A nonsense lie that every Democrat tells. There is no "money" in a "lock box" There are only govt bonds. And Govt bonds held by the government is a liability not an asset. These bonds have to be sold to the public to pay out cash benefits...the same mechanism as deficit spending. SS receipts and spending is all done out of the general budget and there is a cash deficit now and forever. Demcrats are liars/propagandists!  

Democrats want you to believe that NRA members are criminals. The reality is that the majority of violent crimes are committed by black Democrats. NRA members are remarkably upstanding.

Obamacare Lies.  Everything you were told to support this law were all lies.

Women are facing discriminatory pay difference, ie., a "war" on women.  Women's choices, usually family-friendly choices, fully explain their "pay gap."

Climate Change is a crisis and cap and trade is needed now. Al Gore has been proven wrong in his alarmist predictions (and will continue to be proved wrong). But he was probably close to correct when he said that it would take $70 TRILLION to fix the problem (if it could be fixed at all--which it can't)!  Unfortunately the world would go broke with that amount of debt. We're already struggling with current debt levels! Cap and Trade would do nothing except collect more taxes to fund govt spend-a-holics. 

Kunstler goes on to say that, while every Democrat is obsessed with their phony causes, they are ignoring the real and existential problems that are threatening our very existence:
  • The energy quandary at the heart of our economic malaise. He means that the cost to extract marginal barrels of oil, our most important energy source, is higher than what working people can afford but lower than required by oil producers and oil exporting countries. And it's not just energy costs that are problematic for the population. Mankind is bumping up against limits of nearly everything (clean water, naturally caught fish, energy, commodities) causing their costs to rise to where consumers can't afford it. The cause of the recession of 2008 was $145 oil.   
  • The enormous debt racked up to run society in the absence of affordable energy inputs.
  • The dangerous interventions and manipulation in markets by unelected officials of the Federal Reserve.
  • The extraordinary dysfunction of manipulated financial markets.
  • The fragility of a banking system based on accounting fraud.
  • The dysfunction and fragility of the American suburban living arrangement.
  • The consequences of a catastrophic breakdown in the economy due to the above.
  • The destruction of planetary ecology, threatening the continuation of the human race, and potentially all life.
What good are Democrats?

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Our Finite Limits

In the past several hundred years, the Earth's population has exploded to 7 billion persons thanks to the use of debt, cheap raw materials, technology and cheap energy. But the most important is energy as it provides the means to mine the materials and leverages the productivity of humans and technology. But such asymptotic population trends are likely not sustainable and subject to collapse.

To support this growth and to feed all of those people, genetically engineered crops were developed to increase crop yields, oil and gas production has extended into expensive offshore areas and marginal oil sand operations, fish and tree farms were built to compensate for declining fish populations and deforestation, desalination plants have been built in some areas to supply enough clean water. Add higher rents, vastly more expensive medical care to the list too. All of these things, and many more, make life more expensive. Meanwhile incomes are stagnate or down.

Fundamentally we have an affordability problem affecting most workers in this country and it is why consumer spending, and therefore the economy as a whole, is stagnating.

Many other factors limit growth. In China, in just 10 years, air quality concerns have reached such critical levels that they can no longer use as much coal, which had fueled their astounding rise. Even clean water is becoming more limited (costly) in China. Their debt levels have also reached levels associated with financial crises in other countries. Now even China is trying to dial-back debt spending and trying not to kill people with smog. Ironically now, we're seeing prices for most commodities dropping in price that are too low for producers. Higher environmental, production, debt and other costs are hurting every country now.

The world, humanity, is reaching the limits of growth -- which may cause adverse debt dynamics (defaults at every level) and a sudden collapse. 

We've reached the finite limits to growth when the marginal cost of commodities that support growth, like oil, rise so high that consumers can't afford it. That happened in 2008 with $145 oil which triggered a recession and financial crisis. The easy stuff has already been exploited. Now, even $60 oil might cause the same adverse result since healthcare, food, rent prices have rapidly escalated in the past 8 years thanks to ongoing "emergency" measures that have continued 8 yrs past the "crisis." The same thing has happened to nearly every other commodity after 2009 with China's huge debt-fueled growth program.

Also we've reached limits of growth when additional debt, on top of our existing debt burden, no longer helps the economy grow. I covered this in my blog post "We're Reaching The End of The Road."

The beginning of the end became somewhat apparent in the 1970s with the abandonment of the Bretton Woods accord (linking the dollar to gold). The resulting drop in the US dollar led to the Arab oil embargo in 1974, energy costs rose from being very cheap to relatively expensive putting a huge drag on Western growth. In order to maintain previous growth and employment levels, increased debt was used by both governments and individuals to offset higher energy costs. This continues to this day. Higher budget and trade deficits caused by expensive oil imports led to much of our wealth transferred to the oil producers (who turned around and bought US treasury bonds to keep the "scheme" going -- known as "petrodollar recycling.")

In recent years, additional trade deficits with Japan, then China has led to further "leakages" of US domestic wealth. Trump is entirely correct that persistent trade deficits have sucked the life (and jobs) out of our country. The result has been that worker's wages in our country have stagnated or declined as jobs are eliminated -- all of which has stagnated the economy. It's why Globalization had to end at some point and Trump is leading that charge.

In addition to increasing debt, consider the easy money created by the Federal Reserve since the 1970s. They have caused increasing financial instability, have inflated rents, housing and nearly every other costs/asset class (the result of no sound money linked to gold). The Fed is responsible for rising income inequality by disproportionally helping the wealthy -- the ones who own stocks, bonds and inflation hedges. Easy money has caused spectacular crashes/financial crises too in recent decades (year 2000 and 2008)-- each time followed by even lower economic growth. All this is hurting the non-elite working class the most-- those that still have a job. Stagnating incomes is causing our increasing economic malaise. This describes our downward spiral that we find ourselves. 

To further "work around" our limits to growth, governments have reduced interest rates to near-zero or below zero. With ultra-low interest rates, retirees can't afford to retire, pension funds fail and insurance companies are hurt. A 3rd stock market and bond market bubble in 17 years has emerged -- really an "everything" bubble. Now rates are rising. Similar to oil prices, too low interest rates hurt some parts of the economy, but higher interest rates hurt a different portion of the economy (the consumer). Like oil prices, it seems we need two different interest rates. One interest rate doesn't work.

Energy production will eventually fall at current prices of $45 to $50 per barrel which are still historically expensive. The price is too low for producers in many nations and oil exporting countries who rely on oil/gas tax revenue to support it's population (like the Middle East countries). Declining production could easily cause an oil price spike that triggers a recession. Then, a recession would in turn trigger a new oil price collapse. We live in a time of potentially dramatic oscillations in energy prices and economic instability.  And any massive spending or economic "stimulus" program would likely be snuffed-out by a huge oil price spike if it were truly effective-- which it won't be. Just ask the Japanese who have seen nothing but economic stagnation after 20 years of "stimulus" and zero interest rates. It's a no-win situation.

Falling energy prices and production does not bode well for future economic growth since GDP is highly correlated with energy consumption. Already economic growth rates are slowing as sovereign, individual and business debt levels continue rising even faster. This can only go on for so long. It can't go on at all if interest rates rise.

The problem is that all the debt taken out to support the progress and growth to date becomes even more onerous, even disastrous when the economy stagnates or when it shrinks, say in a recession. Deflation is especially problematic for debt burdens. (That's why Central Banks all over the world are desperate to create inflation.)  And, as I've mentioned, a recession could be triggered by a spike in oil prices. Or it could be triggered by a financial crisis in commodity-producing countries (any of the emerging market countries), in China or the EU.

Recovery from the next recession will be very difficult as sovereign debt will be rising dramatically at the same time debt defaults increase. Even governments will reach limits of "rescue" of bad debts and/or banks. Furthermore demographic trends in the world have just turned down and will be a drag on the world economy for decades.

About the only scenario that could reverse the current trend toward collapse is steady ultra-cheap energy (say $10 oil) or a breakthrough in abundant and cheap Thorium or fusion power reactors. But government involvement in any such nuclear energy development will guarantee that it won't be cheap. While the US has very cheap natural gas energy at $3, it's the entire world that needs very cheap energy to grow out of our debts. And expensive alternatives like large-scale Solar and Wind are not the answer. We need cheaper, not more expensive energy.  Like I said, it's a no-win situation. We're reaching the end of the road due mainly to the debt. 

Perhaps you can pray for a miracle?

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

White Privilege My Ass

The entire Leftist culture, blacks, Big Corporate (corrupt) media and Hollywood tries to minimize the wildly successful history of the white northern Europeans. Mostly White Europeans literally "invented" the social, technological and political foundations for the prosperity, freedoms and happiness that a billion people enjoy today in Europe, Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand.

There is a 1000 year history of Anglo ideas and philosophies, dating from Pre-Norman times to the Magna Carta and beyond, combined with the work ethic and Judeo-Christian ethic of mostly European immigrants to the US, led to the most successful and vibrant political, economic and social "experiment" ever seen in world history: the USA. Our Constitutional government and our prosperity has been the envy of the world for 230 years now. You could say that it is white people who invented modern civilization. And few nations, except the mostly white nations of the British commonwealth, have successfully emulated the US success.

There's no privilege here -- only hard work and intelligence. It's only E.Asians and N. Europeans who have triple digit median IQs. All the rest don't measure up. Sorry, but it's true.

And white, mostly English-speaking people, were the first people to eliminate slavery that was a scourge of the earth for 5000+ years. By the late 18th century, in Philadelphia, Paris and London, concurrent discussions about eliminating slavery were taking place and soon after, slavery was eliminated in their countries and colonies. In contrast and as an extreme example, slavery was only outlawed in Mauritania in 2007!

On campuses, you hear ignorant, uninformed black and Latino students, most of them unqualified to even be in college but are attending due to the seemingly "free money" of government loans, complain about "white privilege" or even try to reverse-discriminate against whites. I am reading more and more cases where blacks are self-segregating meetings, dorms, lectures and speeches etc to exclude whites. It's because these black students can't compete with whites in reasoning and logic and they know it.

The problem for the Left is that our genius white Founding Fathers had values that are the very definition of Conservative: They founded a culture that champions self-determination, self-sufficiency, personal responsibility, charity that takes care of your own, the primacy of family, community and church, the worship of God, minimal government and minimal regulation.

The Left wants to change all that thinking they have a better way. And they have largely succeeded in upending our conservative heritage. Now we have big government and big corruption that is threatening our financial and social stability. We have excessive regulation, a police and surviellance state and too many idle people living at the expense of others. All this is causing our nation to careen toward complete financial and social collapse mostly due to corruption and unsound policies of a massive and incompetent government, a government that is unable to fix all the problems that IT caused.

White persons are under attack in this country by ignorant minorities and the Leftists who dominate our schools and universities. The ridiculous complaint of "White Privilege" shows how intellectually bereft blacks and the so-called social justice warriors are. There is so much ignorance in our country-- and nearly all of it is found in the ranks of Blacks and Democrats.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Stock Valuations Worse Than They Appear

The US stock market (S&P 500) is trading at a price to earning ratio of 23 based on trailing 12 month "as-reported" earnings.  Historical average is 16.7, so it doesn't it seem so over-valued. See the chart below.  It's only about 30 to 35% above "average."


But it's corporate earnings themselves that are very elevated compared to historical averages-- almost 100% above average.  The problem is that corporate profits reliably reverse or "mean-revert" to the low end of historical averages.


In fact, it is said that corporate profits are the "most mean-reverting" series in all finance. Refer to the chart above. You can see that corporate profits collapsed to the bottom of the historical range (+/- 1 Standard Deviation) in both 2000 and in 2009, so it does mean-revert very significantly! By this measure, you could expect stocks to drop 60% during the next recession.

My point is that that stock market PEs are much more elevated than it seems because the "Earnings" part of the equation is extremely high relative to history -- which reduces reported PE to something that appears less obscene (earnings are in the denominator of P/E). In reality, stocks are very overvalued and in the 95% percentile of historic valuations, when looking at a variety of valuation measures.

That is why GMO is calling for negative stock and bond returns for the next 7 years. The way that these things work out is that stock prices decline by 50 or 60% at some point in that 7 year time period, then recover somewhat. You might have to wait a long time for the full price recovery. Are you ready for that?

GMO's Estimate of Market Returns for Various Assets Q2 2017

Sunday, July 2, 2017

Cuba: A Country Hijacked By a Family Who Imposed Totalitarian Communism

After 58 years of their “glorious revolution” thousands of people every year are still trying to leave Cuba and risking their death in doing so. Many are still dying.

Cuba has virtually the identical situation that all the Communist East European countries had while they were still under the heavy yoke of Soviet communism. The predominant mood for the people there was hopelessness and so many had dreams of escaping. Why else did the Commies have to build the Berlin Wall? To keep the victims inside! And for what? For a absurd ideology that is and always will be a total failure.

Cuba is another country hijacked by a family like North Korea and Azerbaijan. In these situations, only a few at the top and those “connected” to the Castro family have any money. For example, Forbes has estimated that the Castro brothers have $Billions, probably in Swiss bank accounts. This is the norm in Socialist and Communist countries. It’s an evil situation because it can’t or won’t change and if you complain, you go to prison or a mental hospital for your opinions. The elites maintain their status quo using the thugs and guns of Stasi-like “security” agents. They are agents of repression.

Meanwhile most people make about $30 a month and the most qualified doctors recently received a raise and earn about $65 a month. This is what happens when you "solve" the so-called problem of income inequality: it becomes poverty for all.  This widespread poverty remains true even after every country in the world allows unfettered tourism to Cuba.

The people don't benefit because virtually all of the tourist dollars flow right to the top. There has been some slightly improved "freedoms,"ie., some local citizens can provide tourists alternative accommodations to the government-owned (ie., Castro family owned) resorts. But I wouldn’t be surprised if those people are shaken-down by the regime thugs — especially if they are very successful! If anyone is too successful, their business will be seized and given to someone else since you don’t have any property or any other rights or protections. This is an evil place.

This is why I hold Obama in such contempt for giving Castro Inc a lifeline.  Every Leftist leader will make everyone worse off. This includes Jeremy Corbin, Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama and many others.

There was an article the other day saying that a Cuban man interrupted the most recent May Day parade by running along the parade route waving an American flag. He was beaten badly by all the plain clothes police for such an affront.

Later I read that he was put in a mental hospital because he kept talking about God and he professed his belief in Jesus. This happened millions of times in the USSR too. If you dared say that you didn’t like Communism, you were considered crazy not to love their wonderful system. But, in the plainest truth,  it was their “system” that was crazy.